I have just opened a first position at $BJ (-0.59%) opened. BJ's Wholesale is similar to a membership only retailer. $COST (+0.38%) a membership only retailer.
I considered for a long time whether I should add another retailer with a similar business model to my portfolio in addition to Costco, but in the end the company convinced me for the following reasons:
- the company generates steady cash flow and is growing rapidly ✅ the ROCE of approx.
- the ROCE of approx. 20% is comparable to Costco and significantly better than the competition from Walmart or Target ✅
- the company is not indebted despite the growth; instead, debt has been massively reduced over the last 3 years - debt is now only 0.8x EBITDA ✅
- the company is very cheaply valued compared to the competition around Costco, Walmart, Target, Kroger and co; currently they stand at a price/cash flow of 13 - Costco is at 21. I think that in the future there will be a multiple expansion towards Costco ✅
- its long-term plans include increasing the pace of growth, so instead of 5-6 new warehouses per year, it is now targeting over 10 new warehouses per year ✅
- The company has a convincing strategy in terms of digitization and customer loyalty via app/coupons ✅
- The membership model demonstrably increases customer loyalty and revenue per member; the renewal rate for existing members is currently at a record high of 90% ✅ The company has a convincing strategy with regard to digitalization via app/coupons ✅ The company has a convincing strategy with regard to digitalization via app/coupons
So this is exactly a company from my "prey scheme". Still, it's a rather unusual buy for me, as BJ's currently pays out no dividend ❌, which is of course in contrast to my dividend growth strategy.
Nevertheless, I am convinced that BJ's will create value for shareholders for years to come and will also start paying dividends in due course. Hypothetically, with a payout ratio of only 20%, a dividend yield of about 1.1% would be possible today.