3Yr·

Barrick or Newmont? Newmont or Barrick? The battle for the top position of the world's largest gold producer seems to revolve around these two companies. Barrick was number one for a long time and seemed to have extended this position virtually uncatchable through the acquisition of Randgold. But with the purchase of Goldcorp, Newmont overtook Barrick again. Since then, Newmont has been enthroned at the top of the gold producers. The group plans to produce 5.9 million ounces in the current year. Barrick is expected to produce around 4.5 million ounces.


But are these two companies really the only ones fighting for the top spot? While Barrick and Newmont have been conspicuously quiet on acquisitions in recent months, a wave of consolidation is sweeping through the industry. While Barricks CEO Mark Bristow is still talking about needing more projects in Canada, the fillets are already going over the counter. Australians are pushing more and more into Canada. The latest example: Newcrest snaps up the high-grade Brucejack underground mine with the purchase of Pretium Resources.


But there are also some companies in Canada that are much more active than Barrick or Newmont. The most striking example is probably Agnico Eagle. The takeover of Kirkland Lake was the most recent and certainly the most spectacular move in Agnico's history. The group has already caused a stir in the past, as Agnico, together with Yamana, beat out Goldcorp in the takeover poker for the Canadian Malartic Mine years ago. The highlight of the deal is that once the takeover of Kirkland Lake is completed, Agnico will operate Canada's two largest gold mines, Canadian Malartic (a joint venture with Yamana) and Detour Lake (currently still owned by Kirkland Lake). Together, the two mines will produce more than one million ounces annually in the coming years.


Now Agnico is certainly still a good distance away from Barrick or Newmont. Agnico will be on pace to produce about 3.4 million ounces after the Kirkland Lake Gold acquisition. But Agnico has positioned itself strategically - with various exploration companies. Ruppert Resources in Finland, for example. Agnico has already acquired 14.9 percent there. Agnico already operates the Kittila mine in Finland, and Ruppert Resources has struck south of that mine. Agnico is unlikely to face much competition in a potential takeover of Ruppert. To that end, it's an open secret that Agnico is also looking further afield in Canada. Admittedly, the takeover of Kirkland Lake and its integration into the Group must first be processed. But in the coming months and quarters, Agnico could well extend its feelers further. Perhaps in the direction of Osisko Mining or even Amex Exploration. And while Barrick and Newmont are resting a bit on their laurels, Agnico is still hungry. As I said, the two premium assets have already been acquired in Canada. And the hunger for expansion seems to be far from satisfied.

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Agnico's management is unfortunately very slow, but Kirkland was top notch. I like the low geopolitical risk at Agnico. Mark Bristow had announced in the winter to become active especially in the copper sector, but unfortunately it did not work out. Kirkland + Barrick would have pleased me well, Barrick seems lately to have really fallen asleep on the takeover market. Would not be so happy for me as an investor, if you compare that for example with Sibanye Stillwater, who use their cash well and buy interesting projects while they are still cheap. But with longer duration of the gold bull market, the sector will consolidate more and more, the pressure of the majors to increase their resources, increases extremely. Generally, I am interested as gold miners vorallem midcaps, eg Silver Lake Recources from Australia has also this week quite smartly positioned by hard gold in Canada. I think with such companies and explorers, the upside is significantly higher.
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