Tech is overvalued due to Ki expectations, which cannot be justified at the moment.
Far too many people have "buy now pay later" loans that they shouldn't have. This in combination with inflation, high immo prices and rising Al rates will in my opinion trigger a wave of tenant bankruptcies, which in combination with higher interest rates will lead to bankruptcies for landlords. They will pull their money out of the stock market to secure their property and this will give tech the rest.
Of course it will never go to 0 but I think a 30-50% pullback is quite realistic. When the crash comes, I will buy a Msci world with a leverage of 3 and be happy. Until then it's wait and see and hold a large cash position. I am currently continuing to hold positions as I assume that they will act independently of the market in the above scenario $DRO (+7.2%) and $CACI (+0.6%) . As they are not dependent on the end consumer but on states and armaments are needed when they are needed, regardless of a country's financial situation. $TSLA (+2.6%) I consider this a hedge in the event that I am wrong and the market recovers immediately and in the event that Trump becomes president.
You can follow my portfolio live via the other posts 🤙🏼
