1Yr·

Will any of you be buying Reddit shares? $RDDT (+0.76%)

17 Comments

DerMartin@DerMartin

1Yr

Nein

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Staatsmann@Staatsmann

1Yr

No, definitely not.
The business model hardly exists, you are too dependent on volunteer moderators, the advertising for companies is too cheap and the targeting sucks at the same time.

They probably get most of their impressions from unregistered users, who can't be targeted properly either.

My suspicion is that this thing will become a meme share in time.

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Nœl@nologyy

1Yr

I could imagine that the share could go up quite sharply at the beginning, but I don't think it will be able to hold steady. I've already heard from many people that they want to go short. Then there'll be another battle for the share with all the people from Reddit😂

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Staatsmann@Staatsmann

1Yr

@nologyy Reddit gives moderators residing in the USA the opportunity to purchase pre-IPO shares. As a "thank you" for their work 😂

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Guni91@Dividenden-Stamm

1Yr

To fill the loss pot Certainly worth a bet. And why do such companies go public in " because they want to raise money. Reddit is already being oversubscribed several times over. Hands off would be my conclusion!

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Mau@ProMau

1Yr

So I would like to get in there. The thing will certainly be pretty volatile📈📉📈, but the comments already tell you where the problem will lie...

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Yorick@Yorick

1Yr

I'll certainly be keeping an eye on it. for me, it's now the better X (and/or Facebook).

but expect very strong fluctuations in the first year ... therefore: Watchlist

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Staatsmann@Staatsmann

1Yr

@Yorick Why better than X or Facebook?

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Yorick@Yorick

1Yr

@Staatsmann We hardly need to talk about X. It has become the toy of Elon's free time and unfortunately has only peripherally anything to do with Twitter.

And I really like Musk's more recent innovations (Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink ...). But there he and his personality are "in check".

Facebook. Well - no longer something that appeals to all generations.

And that's exactly what reddit increasingly is. An increasingly successful symbiosis of the old Twitter, Facebook, Pinterest and more... plus a news portal and the classic news forums.

The moderation guidelines have also been improved. Again, in my opinion, more skillful than other social media.

In the course of the discussion about TikTok, Reddit could turn out to be the real winner - precisely because moderation is more decentralized.

We will see. The upcoming US elections and the reappraisal of the role of social media will shake things up in 2025

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Staatsmann@Staatsmann

1Yr

@Yorick Yes, X and also Twitter before that is its own thing.

I personally see things differently with Meta, Facebook and Instagram.
The market position is still very stable and extremely valuable for corporate advertising, as they have so much user data that you can target extremely well. They now also pay very well for their advertising.
Threads is being well tested as a possible competitor to Twitter, which again offers very good opportunities for companies given the data available from Meta.

I don't see Reddit in such a positive light. Neither as a company nor from a user perspective.
Advertising for companies is absurdly cheap. Prices that you can't increase because you offer almost zero targeting for users. You can't really target people with advertising because most users aren't even registered. In addition, Reddit is almost only interesting in North America. The European figures are actually meaningless, as is Asia.
Reddit also has a huge problem at the moment due to decentralized moderation and too many volunteer moderators:
A lot of time passes before really serious offenses are "officially" punished. Similar to when I once reported child pornography.

I once reported that someone was offering pirated music and movies. The volunteer moderators ignored me. Weeks passed before Reddit responded.

Then I reported other infringements of trademark law from a business perspective. Again, it took weeks to get a response and in the meantime all the content was still visible instead of being hidden until the investigation was completed.
The only response to the business damage and reputational damage caused by the processing time was "Not our problem".
Similarly with B2B support for the advertisements.

This is no way to make friends with users or companies.
And Reddit's figures, which you could see in the pre-IPO report, are anything but great.

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Yorick@Yorick

1Yr

@Staatsmann For me, Meta and Facebook can no longer really be mentioned in the same sentence. I have the feeling that FB will be dragged along as a very valuable database until the really new and contemporary replaces it.
Then we'll be having a completely different discussion.
I actually also see Meta as a very big player for the future.

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Yorick@Yorick

1Yr

@Staatsmann How long has it been with your messages? Yes, both Reddit and Twitter had problems. Tumblr was particularly bad - which ultimately brought it to its knees.
Maybe I'm in a different Reddit bubble, but I see some progress in the past three years.

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Yorick@Yorick

1Yr

@Staatsmann and finally, as I wrote: it belongs on my watchlist for the time being. I am curious to see how it develops over the course of a year. Especially with the new regulations expected in the USA and EU. I wouldn't buy just yet ...

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Staatsmann@Staatsmann

1Yr

@Yorick Some of the announcements were only made 2-3 months ago.
That is why they are so present, especially with regard to the IPO.

Reddit also has real problems with the use of AI content with celebrities in company ads, just like Instagram, Facebook or Twitter.
Celebrities with AI voices are then used to advertise online casinos, etc.

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TaxesAreTheft@TaxesAreTheft

1Yr

Absolutely not

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Raphael Steil@TheRealRapha

1Yr

https://www.ft.com/content/b7c1d4de-5d69-4e17-abdb-c4de55e96e63

To date, US investors see it differently, price +30% above listing price. Valuations of over $9bn.
But will be interesting to see how it develops in the coming weeks.

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Aktienkoenig@Aktienkoenig

1Yr

No, I assume that the share will plummet shortly after the IPO. At some point, it will rise slightly and then just move sideways until there is positive or negative press.

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