Josef (@kleberj) on getquin

4Mon·

Need swarm intelligence :)

Actually, after the ex-day I wanted to rejoin $OMV (+1.22%) again after the ex-day. However, the share is still rising and even with the dividend discount it would be too expensive for me to get in.

On the other hand, Sozi-Lula fired the CEO of $PETR3 (+0.82%) and the share price reacted accordingly. When the dividend reduction was at least announced a few weeks ago, it worked excellently and the share had already recovered to well over €8. In fact, no dividend cuts have been noticed so far. On the contrary, the special dividends for May and June have been announced again, although they are incorrectly not shown here on GQ. Reason for the socialist freak-out?

Is Lula willing and able to push through the requested dividend cuts now, with corresponding consequences for the share price? Opinions?

30.04

OMV

Sold x60 at €45.36

€2,721.60

13.43%

3 Comments

Hannes@Hannes_SK

4Mon

On OMV: I would actually stay on the ball here. The discussion about a complete takeover by ADNOC has not yet been resolved. The first 25% is already owned. Should a complete takeover of the group take place, €20 billion, i.e. around €60/share, is realistic.

Secondly:
It is unrealistic that there will be a dividend cut. The Brazilian state is still the majority shareholder with just under 51% and is naturally dependent on the dividends in the state budget. It was probably a purely politically motivated appointment to give party loyalists a safe home and at the same time increase the state's influence on the economy.

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Josef K.@kleberj

4Mon

@Hannes_SK The previous CEO was also a friend of Lula's party. But he obviously refused to implement the majority shareholder's "order". As I understand it, Lula wants lower gasoline prices in Brazil -> less profit -> less dividend. And Lula apparently wants to go down in history as a successful tribune of the people rather than with a good national budget. In principle, I have a lot of faith in socialists. On the other hand, my fingers are itching. A few weeks ago, "Buy on Bad News" worked really well.

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