2Mon
Here I think correlation is being confused with causality in the classic way. For example, in 2008 or 2020, bankers and politicians drove the economy against the wall, to put it simply, and the Fed then tried to stimulate the economy again by cutting interest rates. It was by no means the case that the Fed cut interest rates and the market collapsed as a result, but it had already collapsed beforehand and the low after around six months was the turning point.
Your statistics do not show that there is a crash on average 195 days after the interest rate decision, but that it takes an average of 195 days for the market to be supported and slowly start to rise again.
Due to the corona policy, we had the problem that states needed cheap money and at the same time crippled productivity and therefore triggered huge inflation. NOW we have the problem that the average citizen has less and less free cash flow or is broke and therefore consumes less. That is why we are now lowering interest rates to relieve the burden on citizens and encourage them to consume.
Your statistics do not show that there is a crash on average 195 days after the interest rate decision, but that it takes an average of 195 days for the market to be supported and slowly start to rise again.
Due to the corona policy, we had the problem that states needed cheap money and at the same time crippled productivity and therefore triggered huge inflation. NOW we have the problem that the average citizen has less and less free cash flow or is broke and therefore consumes less. That is why we are now lowering interest rates to relieve the burden on citizens and encourage them to consume.
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@Soprano Everything is right to the point! What is your view on the subject? Crash yes no or only if we then run into a recession? Are you going to position yourself somehow or are you just going to let it run its course?
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•2Mon
@Testo-Investor It's hard to say, but I don't expect another crash for shares at the moment. After all, not everything is bad and there is also some optimistic news from time to time.
I continue to position myself long but always adjust from time to time. So basically I won't be selling anything and will continue to invest, but will favor certain sectors and avoid others. I am becoming increasingly cautious with tech and financials (as a tech investor). I am currently very critical of consumer goods, gastronomy, the automotive industry and anything that is cyclical or not yet earning money. Areas such as energy and utilities and generally "boring stocks" from the industrial sector are becoming increasingly interesting, possibly even tobacco.
But I am also only in equities. I can imagine that gold will also be a good idea over the next few months. With cryptos, there will probably be even better prices than now, but other users know that better than I do.
I continue to position myself long but always adjust from time to time. So basically I won't be selling anything and will continue to invest, but will favor certain sectors and avoid others. I am becoming increasingly cautious with tech and financials (as a tech investor). I am currently very critical of consumer goods, gastronomy, the automotive industry and anything that is cyclical or not yet earning money. Areas such as energy and utilities and generally "boring stocks" from the industrial sector are becoming increasingly interesting, possibly even tobacco.
But I am also only in equities. I can imagine that gold will also be a good idea over the next few months. With cryptos, there will probably be even better prices than now, but other users know that better than I do.
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•@Soprano Thanks for the article ... it all sounds plausible.... I just want to secure profits and then move this money into bitcoin.
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2Mon
@Testo-Investor Well, since you only have ETFs in the equity sector, I can only help to a limited extent. You can't easily sell certain sectors now.
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