11Mon

The thing is... the massive correction after the rate cuts was not because of the rate cuts, but because rates had to be cut because the economy fell into recession.
I think it could be similar this time. Unless the FED actually manages a soft landing.

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11Mon

@stefan_21 yes, and of course I'm worried about our bull run.... I have to hold out until March/June because that's when I can sell tax-free and it's going to be a tight squeeze.

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11Mon

@Testo-Investor Yes, there could indeed be a timing problem. So far, however, everything looks like a soft landing and the next US president will do everything in his power to avoid falling into a recession shortly after the election. I think there is a good chance that we will take the bull run in our stride until we fall into recession and a correction. But wait and see.

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11Mon

@stefan_21 I'm facing another problem.... I have fresh cash every month ... I'm unsure whether it makes sense to continue buying crypto now.... holding period etc.... or do you mean saving cash for possible massive setbacks in 2025 ??? bah really not easy or?

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11Mon

@Testo-Investor In the case of Bitcoin, you can (in my opinion) still buy without any problems. I would be cautious with altcoins.
If everything goes according to plan, Bitcoin will top out somewhere between 150 and 250k and then - if the cycles repeat themselves - fall towards the bull market top in 2021 at most. Then prices would currently be pretty damn low.
But I think that, especially since ETFs, it is difficult to predict the future based on the past....
I'm buying monthly anyway and will only sell a maximum of 30% of my position in the bull run. Otherwise I'll hodl until I turn gray🤣

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11Mon

@stefan_21 in the past, there have always been corrections of up to 80% in the bear market .... do you think it will continue to be this severe, or will it be weakened by the etfs? Then a 100% sell-off would make a lot of sense. Of course, it depends on how far the price goes up.

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11Mon

@Testo-Investor Yes, it would make sense in theory - but I would never presume to time the market in such a way that I can make the maximum profit. And since I'm absolutely convinced of Bitcoin in the long term, I'd rather keep the majority of my position and ride out the next bear market.
I no longer see 80% corrections with Wall Street in the boat... But I think 50-60% is already possible.
But that's just my feeling - of course I don't have a crystal ball :D

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11Mon

@stefan_21 I make it all dependent on how high we go, if we go to 250k then a $60k buy-in short is mega.... That's very clear :) If we only get to 100k then probably not in the bear market. We will definitely have a brutally exciting year 2024 and 2025! with tough decisions for us Depot!

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Hitchkock@Hitchkock89

11Mon

I don't really care. I have savings plans in place, a 30-year investment horizon and, in the event of a massive correction, I still have some money lying around in the call money for a better entry.

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11Mon

@Hitchkock89 It couldn't be better! That's how it has to be. Luckily I'm 110% invested, so I have to build up cash first :)

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GHF@GHF

11Mon

My dear Testo,
You are still a little too hectic and erratic. Every three weeks you read something new and completely realign your investment strategy.

There are countless statistics and studies on correlations in the stock market... in any direction you want. A. m. S. you can be relaxed with a diversified portfolio and simply sit out the lows ... time in market beats timing the market

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11Mon

haha, I had to laugh "my dear Testo" ... you're always evolving and important topics like this come your way, so I'd rather be prepared than look stupid. Unfortunately, my portfolio is no longer diversified because I have most of it in crypto. So of course I have to worry about such exits. A semiconductor ETF will easily lose 50% in such a time.

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11Mon

Here I think correlation is being confused with causality in the classic way. For example, in 2008 or 2020, bankers and politicians drove the economy against the wall, to put it simply, and the Fed then tried to stimulate the economy again by cutting interest rates. It was by no means the case that the Fed cut interest rates and the market collapsed as a result, but it had already collapsed beforehand and the low after around six months was the turning point.

Your statistics do not show that there is a crash on average 195 days after the interest rate decision, but that it takes an average of 195 days for the market to be supported and slowly start to rise again.

Due to the corona policy, we had the problem that states needed cheap money and at the same time crippled productivity and therefore triggered huge inflation. NOW we have the problem that the average citizen has less and less free cash flow or is broke and therefore consumes less. That is why we are now lowering interest rates to relieve the burden on citizens and encourage them to consume.

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11Mon

@Soprano Everything is right to the point! What is your view on the subject? Crash yes no or only if we then run into a recession? Are you going to position yourself somehow or are you just going to let it run its course?

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11Mon

@Testo-Investor It's hard to say, but I don't expect another crash for shares at the moment. After all, not everything is bad and there is also some optimistic news from time to time.

I continue to position myself long but always adjust from time to time. So basically I won't be selling anything and will continue to invest, but will favor certain sectors and avoid others. I am becoming increasingly cautious with tech and financials (as a tech investor). I am currently very critical of consumer goods, gastronomy, the automotive industry and anything that is cyclical or not yet earning money. Areas such as energy and utilities and generally "boring stocks" from the industrial sector are becoming increasingly interesting, possibly even tobacco.

But I am also only in equities. I can imagine that gold will also be a good idea over the next few months. With cryptos, there will probably be even better prices than now, but other users know that better than I do.

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11Mon

@Soprano Thanks for the article ... it all sounds plausible.... I just want to secure profits and then move this money into bitcoin.

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11Mon

@Testo-Investor Well, since you only have ETFs in the equity sector, I can only help to a limited extent. You can't easily sell certain sectors now.

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Iwas M.@SSIT

11Mon

I follow the wisdom of the all-wise preacher T. Estoboss: Keep on shooting, no matter what.

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FamilyFinance@FamilyFinance

11Mon

@SSIT AWESOME AWESOME AWESOME!

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11Mon

Remember that you can happily pay taxes again when you sell. This effect of around -20% alone will not be recouped with the best market timing. I pull through "no matter what".

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11Mon

@FamilyFinance yes, I'll definitely have to remember that, thanks for the point!!!

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11Mon

@FamilyFinance Pro tip: You don't have to pay taxes if you only ever make a loss

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11Mon

@Soprano I'll put it into practice! Sounds like a solid basis for wealth! :)

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Robert@Iwant_money_423

11Mon

Have no exit strategy. We will simply continue to reinvest massively.

For me, bad market phases are buying phases.
To be honest, I am always happy about setbacks in the portfolio, they are healthy and necessary.

Hopefully I'll be able to quickly adjust my 3 micro positions.

The worse the market phase, the more aggressively I proceed 😂

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11Mon

@Iwant_money_423 That is also a very healthy thought! and the final stage of the mindset

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Erzwo@FYBSTRD

11Mon

I rely on 1980

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CashDividendGamer@CashDividendGamer

11Mon

@FYBSTRD the optimist! I like it ! 1 out of 10 times :D

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11Mon

Just let it run.

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11Mon

I'm not worried about selling at all, I have 4 positions in my portfolio and a savings plan is running on all of them. DCA takes care of that for me.
I've tried market timing before and it went very badly, this time I'm breathing easy.
I want to hold all 4 positions for the long term.

I can't say much about soft-landing or recession, I have no experience of prices after interest rate cuts. Only the older ones among us, the others have the experience afterwards.

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11Mon

@Joris Good thought, but I probably want to shift to 100% crypto in the long term. Background: no desire to pay any more taxes :)

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11Mon

@Testo-Investor so from shares and ETFs to crypto?
Where does that idea come from? The world AG then gone?
I've always had it in my head to bet everything on Bitcoin, but the balls aren't there 😅

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11Mon

@Joris You keep evolving... maybe not 100% away, but largely crypto... I'll tell you why. I just don't want to keep blowing 30% tax up the government's ass on future sales, that's my main aspect and secondly I just believe in the crypto world... Especially the way it's currently picking up speed.... It's just brutal! Welt AG is already gone ... I only have the semiconductor etf and the SP500... I've sold everything else for crypto in the last few months.

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11Mon

@Testo-Investor Yes, I'm also more than convinced by crypto, so for me specifically only Bitcoin. I'm thinking about pumping most of my savings into bitcoin over the next few months.
Currently 700€ nasdaq and 400€ bitcoin per month, but I'm definitely considering exchanging the amount. Then there's gold €150 a month and palantir €50.

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11Mon

@Joris Sounds really solid at first! 1300 € is a solid savings rate. nice! yes exchange it .... if you do dca, then you can even post daily on Binance etc.... then you get a very accurate average price.... whether it makes sense I don't know ^^

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11Mon

@Testo-Investor yes i think i dip it 😅 daily is blatant 😂 tracking it at getquin 😜
Currently buy monthly from BSDEX, low fees and always send it straight to my bitbox which is free from BSDEX

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11Mon

@Joris free of charge? That is of course an announcement, .... Bitcoin network easily €4 per transaction.... ETH 6 € currently..... but often use BEP 20 from BInance.... everything works perfectly and only 20 cents or something like that

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11Mon

@Testo-Investor yes free of charge on the wallet, that was the reason why I went there. 20 cents is also great

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11Mon

@Joris I am highly satisfied with binance.... 0.1% fees except sending eth and btc is not worth it for small amounts... I have now uploaded all my purchases to cointracker.... so that I know exactly what I can sell tax-free and when..... I would also recommend you ...

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View all 5 further answers

11Mon

@Testo-Investor cointracker? Is that free of charge?
I had to close my Bitvavo account, so I can no longer see the purchases. I can only see when they were made on BSDEX.
But I downloaded the purchase history with transaction code beforehand. I can then use this to track them.

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Bob@NoBobble

11Mon

Softlanding bei Zinssenkungen ist relativ selten. Diesmal aber nicht ganz unrealistisch.

"America’s economy is about to stick what’s called a “soft landing,” which is when inflation returns to the Fed’s target without a recession — a feat that’s only happened once, during the 1990s, according to some economists."

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/25/economy/us-economy-gdp-second-quarter/index.html

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11Mon

@NoBobble HI bob, thanks for the info, so you can rely almost 100% on the statistics, right? I could just imagine that things will get really good again in 2024 and the big bang will come in 2025... do you think a TRUMP can't change that?

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Bob@NoBobble

11Mon

@Testo-Investor Nobody knows that now. I'll keep a low profile in the summer - anyway - and then we'll see.

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