8Mon

In principle, the model fits so well in the past because it has of course been fitted in such a way that the deviations from the previous data are minimal. This allows you to "prove" any supposed correlations, especially if you allow for axis scaling.

However, it is true that, by nature, networks tend to satisfy exponential laws. Whether the price then also shows long-term exponential growth has nothing to do with this in the first instance.

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8Mon

@RealMichaelScott I agree. However, the axis scaling is limited to the fact that both axes are displayed logarithmically. And in this respect, I find it interesting that the price more or less follows a linear line.
I agree that you can't predict the future based on this.
Especially since disruptive technologies usually follow an S-curve adaptation :)

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8Mon

@stefan_21 I haven't looked in detail at exactly how the axes were scaled. If it is only the pure logarithmization, it is of course a stronger correlation than if the axes were scaled accordingly beforehand.

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8Mon

@stefan_21 I have now looked again and the correlation of the Bitcoin price should be:

1.0117e-17*(days since genesis block)5.82

But that's exactly what I meant: the 1.0117e-17 and 5.82 are simply scaling factors on a logarithmic scale to get a particularly good fit. In this respect, it is as I wrote in the previous comment: a rather weak correlation if scaling factors are allowed.

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8Mon

@RealMichaelScott Merci. Good point, I hadn't noticed that. Then there will certainly have been a bit of playing around to get that 5.82 factor.

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8Mon

@stefan_21 Yes, certainly. The factor in front of it is also nothing more than an adjustment factor that fits the compression of the y-axis (i.e. Bitcoin price) in such a way that the deviation is minimal.

The website also claims that, in principle, a linear regression was carried out on a log-log basis.

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8Mon

Instead of a ball of wool, you can also use a snowball. In other words, a snowball system that will eventually collapse if no new users are generated.

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8Mon

@Beeftek Why should Bitcoin collapse if no new users are added?

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8Mon

@stefan_21 because if you only buy tulip bulbs because you are speculating that it will be worth more soon, it will collapse. Or you speculate that Bitcoin is a hedge like gold, but I doubt that most people buy Bitcoin to achieve price stability.

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8Mon

@Beeftek Okay, so what does Bitcoin have to do with it?

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8Mon

@Beeftek People buy Bitcoin because of its properties. Please also read my article "BTC - The perfect store of value" :)

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SCHLiCHTE_capital@SCHLiCHTE_capital

8Mon

@stefan_21 but most people don't buy Bitcoin to store it in order to protect themselves against inflation. But to become a millionaire quickly and achieve high returns, I think that's contradictory.

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8Mon

@Beeftek The fast-ball system, the tulip crisis - the comparisons are no longer merely misleading, they have long since collapsed. Anyone who still believes that Bitcoin is just a passing phenomenon probably also thought in 1999 that the Internet would not catch on.

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8Mon

@Beeftek The "get rich quick" train left the station a long time ago. To become a millionaire with an investment of just a few thousand euros, you need to bring a little more time with you.
This is more the case with all the crypto nonsense like memecoins.

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8Mon

@stefan_21 I have a rather different impression, look at all the posts. Most of them are about getting rich quick with Bitcoin. Bullshit. Bitcoin is there to protect against inflation. That's why it's overvalued.
If most people realize that you can't make great returns with it, which is the point of Bitcoin, then what? Look at your contribution.

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8Mon

@Beeftek But in essence, that's exactly what it is. Of course, there are plenty of people who think they can get rich quickly. But these are also the people who will sell at the next small setback.
I can only recommend that you take a neutral look at Bitcoin. There is more to it than you might initially think. After all, I was also a critic for years and argued in a similar way to you😂 I also always thought that it was a Ponzi scheme ist🤷‍♂️

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View all 41 further answers

8Mon

@stefan_21 Yes, but most people don't even know what Bitcoin is for. To hedge against inflation.

But inflation is not 10% per year or 50% per year.

Bitcoin (digital gold) will grow like gold. What is the return on gold? 0% after inflation.

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

8Mon

Finally a post that I could read in full WITHOUT scrolling down 3 times :D The price forecasts would be great

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Uwe@SchlaubiSchlumpf

8Mon

In reality, such curve descriptions always have the problem that they only work within the set limits (with standard deviation). For fitted curves, this would be between the first and last value.

Of course, a regression curve like this is a more intelligent approach than guessing, but theoretically we could have an external influence at some point, as you say, which results in a tipping point and suddenly an exponential function with a*e^-(b*x) takes over.

A similar problem to trained neural networks, which only work well if the input is within the trained data sets.

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V7Hodl@V7Hodl

8Mon

Thank you. Another interesting article. But as you say, I can't imagine that the price will be predictable in the future. Especially as the benchmark - i.e. Fiat - is also constantly fluctuating.

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8Mon

@vise72 absolutely. I agree

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Stewie G.@Stewie

7Mon

One could add to the feedback loop that the rising Bitcoin price also ensures that Bitcoin is increasingly in the news and elsewhere. When people talk about it more and it gets more attention, the price rises in turn

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7Mon

@Stewie Absolutely, that's what I wrote in this post:
https://getqu.in/J56y9P/

I only described the feedback loop according to Giovanni in the Power Law article :)
There are several control loops that interlock perfectly

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8Mon

And here we have the famous profit promise, which Stefan says doesn't exist. A million in 2033.

Extrapolated from past data. The way it's done. Stocks and such always do the same thing. Brrr

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Deleted User

8Mon

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V7Hodl@V7Hodl

8Mon

@Madhatter5566 Forecasts are not promises of profit... or is every stock analysis with expected returns a promise of profit? Are gold price forecasts a promise of profit?

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8Mon

@Seebi Yes, we only forecast millions. Yes yes.

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8Mon

@vise72 Stefan always says that Bitcoin doesn't have that.....

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V7Hodl@V7Hodl

8Mon

@Madhatter5566 Did you not understand my message? I just said that forecasts are not promises of profit. Stefan isn't promising you a profit either. What's wrong with you?

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8Mon

@vise72 Then call it a promise of returns

My gosh you Ponzi users and your semantics.

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Deleted User

8Mon

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8Mon

@Seebi Call it what you like. Ponzi schemes and their semantics.

It's not a pyramid, it's a pouring cone. I don't care.

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Deleted User

8Mon

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