Nico Uhlig · 2024-09-09T15:18:33.727764Z

Was nun ASML? Vor einiger Zeit habe ich nach einem Rücksetzer eine erste Position in $ASML eröffnet. Seitdem ist die Aktie nochmal gut 20% gefallen. Am Donnerstag letzte Woche habe ich dann nochmal nachgelegt und eine etwas kleinere Position für gut 730€ je Aktie gekauft. Seitdem ist die Aktie fast nochmal um 10% gefallen. Nachkaufen möchte ich derzeit aufgrund der Gewichtung in meinem Portfolio nicht nochmal. Insgesamt bin ich mit meiner Position jetzt 17% im Minus. Wie gehe ich mit so einer Situation um? Natürlich ist es nicht ideal direkt nach dem Kauf so eine Korrektur mitzuerleben. Allerdings habe ich die Aktie auch nicht gekauft um nach einem Monat kurzfristige Gewinne mitzunehmen. Ich möchte als Aktionär bewusst langfristig an der Entwicklung und dem damit verbundenem Wachstum von ASML teilhaben. Rückwirkend betrachtet hätte ich natürlich später einsteigen können. Das „perfekte“ Timing - sofern es sowas realistisch betrachtet überhaupt gibt - ist eben fast unmöglich und kann meistens erst rückwirkend als solches erkannt werden. Trotz der Buchverluste habe ich jetzt keine Schweißperlen auf der Stirn, denn ich weiß, dass auch wieder andere Zeiten für ASML kommen werden. Gelduld ist auch als Aktionär nötig und ist ja bekanntlich eine wünschenswerte Tugend. Stay tuned, Euer Michael Scott

@RealMichaelScott

4Mon·

What next ASML?

Some time ago, after a setback, I opened an initial position in $ASML (-0.76%) after a setback. Since then the share has fallen a good 20%. On Thursday last week, I added to it again and opened a somewhat smaller position for a good 730€ per share. Since then, the share has fallen by almost another 10%. Due to the weighting in my portfolio, I don't want to buy more at the moment. Overall, my position is now down 17%.

How do I deal with a situation like this?

Of course, it is not ideal to experience such a correction immediately after buying. However, I didn't buy the share to take short-term profits after a month. As a shareholder, I consciously want to participate in the long-term development and associated growth of ASML.

In retrospect, I could of course have bought in later could have. The "perfect" timing - if such a thing realistically exists at all - is almost impossible and can usually only be recognized as such in retrospect. Despite the book losses, I don't have any beads of sweat on my forehead now, because I know that other times will come for ASML.

Patience is also necessary as a shareholder and, as we all know, is a desirable virtue.

Stay tuned,

Yours Michael Scott

24.07

ASML

Bought at €849.20

46 Comments

Fynn@Fynn-

4Mon

In 5 years, nobody will care whether you started at 800 or 600 euros. :)
Just don't look at the portfolio and enjoy life. 🚀

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Demas@Demas

4Mon

@Fynn- exactly 👍 also nobody will even remember us in 2/3 generations. Sad, but also true. Keep enjoying live 🤝

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Alfred@Alfred16

4Mon

@Fynn- It's difficult, but of course you're absolutely right.

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StockMaster@Stock_Master

4Mon

@Fynn- At the end of the day, you have to look at the entire portfolio. I had a similar experience with the Nike share, down and bought, down and bought again, down and bought again. Then nothing happened for a long time and now it's recovering again.

Patience and just look at the whole thing over the next 10, 15 or even better 20 years.

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Ti M.@douc1t

4Mon

@Fynn- I would be interested to know whether it says 200% or 300%.

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Fynn@Fynn-

4Mon

@douc1t If you put my answer in the context of his contribution, you will understand the message. The question here is rather 200% plus in a few years or get out now. 😄

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But T.@But_the_Stock_Picked_Me

4Mon

Thanks for the post. It's good that you're sharing your thoughts here - it helps everyone!

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Sandy the Squirrel@Esperanza

4Mon

I feel the same way, then -10% and can't buy any more because of the high weighting. Pain. I wonder what's going on with ASML, because Nvidia is definitely recovering

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“Klaatu_Barada_Nikto!“@Ash

4Mon

I always like it when there aren't always just "ideal world" posts here and developments are published that you don't like to find in your portfolio. It's also interesting to read how you re-evaluate the situation after your initial post and derive measures and decisions for yourself.

But I always appreciate your contributions anyway. 👍🏼

And finally, a little encouragement from me and my crystal ball 🔮: This is just a snapshot, and in a few months the tide will have turned again 🃏. 🍀

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

4Mon

The ideal solution would have been to wait for the market to bottom out and not to take the plunge. But I repeat myself, as I do almost every day 😄

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Nico Uhlig@RealMichaelScott

4Mon

@Sansebastian There was no bottoming at all during the last correction and the share moved straight back towards the ATH.

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

4Mon

@RealMichaelScott and where is the share now after only a few weeks?

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Nico Uhlig@RealMichaelScott

4Mon

@Sansebastian yes, it's always easy to say retrospectively 😉

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

4Mon

@RealMichaelScott yes, I'm with you on that 😉 I would also like to add to ASML, but as I said, I'm waiting for the stock to bottom out / stabilize. Then there is a higher probability that the share will rise again.

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0xBerndBuffet@0xBerndBuffet

4Mon

@Sansebastian It could just as well fall even further. Asml is a shovel supplier country and depends on how the AI bubble develops or what happens if China attacks Taiwan.

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

4Mon

@0xBerndBuffet I didn't say it couldn't fall any further, did I? I'm waiting for a bottom to form

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0xBerndBuffet@0xBerndBuffet

4Mon

@Sansebastian But you don't know when the bottom is. It can go sideways for a few days and even rise and then the first real crash comes. You don't do more than read a crystal ball.

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

4Mon

@0xBerndBuffet you should read through everything I have written...

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0xBerndBuffet@0xBerndBuffet

4Mon

@Sansebastian I have and what you are saying is nonsense. Time in the market beats time to market. But when you tell your fairy tale that you can predict the bottom, I can only laugh.

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

4Mon

@0xBerndBuffet Apparently you can't read! Where do I write that I can predict the bottom? "Time in the market...." this sentence is so stupid

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View all 3 further answers

Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

4Mon

Heiko Thieme's strategy,
"You have to buy when nobody wants the shares. And you always have to hope that the recommendation goes into negative territory

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Sebastian B.@Baisse-Jumper

4Mon

It happened to me last year with LVMH. It's annoying, but with such quality companies, it's only a matter of time before the tide turns again. After almost a year and several additional purchases, I sold LVMH with a good profit. Patience pays off. But at first you bite yourself in the backside. 😅

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Meister L.@Lumimyrsky

4Mon

I feel the same way with micron dell and kla, but I haven't bought yet - let's see how it develops

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PaulPaulsonle@PaulPaulsonle

4Mon

@Lumimyrsky Micron also got me badly, at 75€ I will buy more😅👍

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Nico Uhlig@RealMichaelScott

4Mon

@Lumimyrsky I had a luckier hand with $KLAC. I bought it in March '23 and it's been almost all uphill since then.

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Paketknecht@Paketknecht

4Mon

I believe that you will need good nerves with this share in the future because the risks are not insignificant. That's why I'm cautious here, great company, I have the share in the savings plan with a buy in of currently 630, but I invest less capital here than in other companies and can sleep well with a current weighting of 1% in the individual portfolio. The share is very weak again today compared to the market, and I think it will continue to fall. But I don't know, my savings plan just keeps running 😅

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Andre@DivGrowth1989

4Mon

wow, I finally timed it well back then. My equity is €504, - I'm looking forward to the next 10-20 years

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Sebastian@Sele-95

4Mon

what were your reasons for getting in at ~€850? just because there was a setback?

ASML has also been on my watch list for a very long time, but I haven't dared to make an initial investment yet. why? - because I currently only see the share as fairly valued at around €650-620.
Whether this range will be reached? nobody can answer that.
at the moment it only knows one direction - south.
You can't get the perfect timing, but as you write, patience is very important.

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Nico Uhlig@RealMichaelScott

4Mon

@Sele-95 I analyzed the stock and used my method to determine a fair price that was significantly higher; take a look at my posts, I shared my thoughts here.

As I said, in retrospect I could of course have waited even longer, but the share could just as easily have shot back above the ATH from ~€850.

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Sebastian@Sele-95

4Mon

@RealMichaelScott yes, you're always smarter afterwards:D i think i'll be weak soon too and will bet the first tranche...
even then it might correct further. we'll see.
My fair value is around €620

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trade_visionary_818@trade_visionary_818

4Mon

Same here hang at the average purchase price 775!The same in the article applies to me 🫡🚀❤️

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Sebastian@Sebastian24

4Mon

I started a savings plan in August when the first setback occurred. After that, things continued to go downhill and I'm now collecting shares at a lower price until my position size is reached. Let's see where we stand then, otherwise there's a big minus for now 😁

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Erich K.@Erich_aus_der_Steiermark

4Mon

Are you all following the chart? (bottoming out)
Wouldn't it be better to determine a fair/good value and buy at this amount with a limit order? It doesn't matter whether it's a falling knife, bottom formation, wave pattern, full moon, odd day or any other chart pattern.

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GeldGenie@GeldGenie

4Mon

The chart experts would have known. 😜😋

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Schrauber1113@GordenShanway

4Mon

I've already written about it in another post. Before stupid comments come again, nobody has to believe what I write here.

I produce parts for ASML. The current demand remains the same. When things go downhill, I actually feel it directly. ASML adjusts the demand so quickly, I can't "rebuild" the machines that quickly.

However, the demand has not been increased after the last figures.

I will buy more, when, I'm not sure, but I will buy more.

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Nico Uhlig@RealMichaelScott

4Mon

@GordenShanway thanks for the insights 🚀

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a@_edgar_

4Mon

To put it stoically: "idem"

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Erzwo@FYBSTRD

4Mon

Leave lying

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JH90@JH90

4Mon

I started at 794 and in a few years it will no longer be so important

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TaxesAreTheft@TaxesAreTheft

4Mon

As long as the fundamentals don't change, I always take a relaxed view. It only becomes problematic if there are more downside than upside factors, which could lead to multiple compression.
In 10 years, it won't matter where exactly you bought now.

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Bass-T@BASS-T

3Mon

I can understand the feeling. ASML doesn't exactly shine in my tech portfolio either. But I don't think the story behind it is much different than before. Let's just wait and see.

No investment advice

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Aurelio@AureB

4Mon

My two cents. If you're a really long term shareholder then you need to have a strategy about all the possible performance of the share.

That means that you need to have a strategy about buy/sell when the share falls or gain before you buy by the first time.

Example:
Buying X shares/amount each Y% fall or selling Z shares/amount each B% gain.
Or something so easy as buy and forget.
Or buy and add X quantity each Y period...

There are plenty of strategies about how to deal with the market and forget your feelings or sweats, because take advice from them, is, always, the worst thing you could do in this kind of business.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

4Mon

Yes well, anyone who bought 3 years ago is now at about plus minus zero.

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