I am 17 years old and have now started studying business administration. I have been interested in shares for a long time. Although I don't wear glasses myself, I once looked into the Fielmann share $FIE (-0.48%) and decided to share my thoughts with you.

Why is the Fielmann Group interesting for me?

• Fielmann primarily builds and sells glasses, contact lenses and optical services. They are also the market leader in this area in Germany
• They also sell hearing aids
• These products and services are expected to become increasingly popular in Germany, Fielmann's main sales market, but also in other sales markets (mainly EU countries)
• The population is getting older and older and visual impairments are also becoming much more common among younger people due to heavy cell phone use
• c.a 60% of people in Germany and also in some neighboring countries wear glasses

The figures are also interesting!

• Margins have fallen significantly in the last 10 years
• Corona and the Russian invasion in particular hurt the profit margin
• Recently, however, there has been an increase in margins again and even more are forecast

• The decline in margins also weighed on the share price

• in my opinion, however, this downward pressure on the share price is exaggerated
• Sales have nevertheless continued to grow by around 40% since the share price high in 2017 (€1.4bn → €2bn)
• The P/E ratio (23) is at a 14-year low, which makes the share exciting for me again

Wogrowth and vision

• "Digitize and internationalize business model"
• Currently very low debt → They can take on debt for their "visions" without any problems
• 175 million planned for 2024 for expansion, modernization and maintenance of the sales network as well as investments in production and infrastructure

An acquisition almost every year

• Optika Clarus chain (Slovenia, 2019)
• Óptica & Audiología Universita- ria (Spain, 2020)
• Medical Óptica Audición in (northern Spain, acquisition 2022)
• These 3 have a total of 145 stores

Expansion into North America

• Acquisition of SVS Vision (82 stores in the USA)
• Market leader in Michigan, turnover 2022: 100 million dollars
• Also eyewear insurance production facilities
• Eyevious Style, Inc. in Calgary, Canada

My price target

• Forecasted sales for 2029: € 34/share
• If the margin recovers to 0.85 times by 2029 as in 2008-2018, it would be c.a. 10%
• It is forecast at 8.25% for 2026. I assume that in the worst case scenario the margin will remain at 8.25% in 2029 and not recover any further
• Margin * profit makes a possible profit of €2.80/share up to €3.40
• the P/E ratio has fluctuated between c.a. 21 and 50 over the last 10 years, assuming that it continues like this and taking the profit just calculated, we arrive at
• Lowest price (21 P/E at € 2.80 earnings per share) → € 58.8
• Highest price (50KGV at 3.40 earnings per share) → € 170
• Which of these is realistic?
• P/E ratio median of the last 3 years: 30
• Average of the highest and lowest calculated earnings: 3.10
• (35 P/E ratio at € 3.10 earnings per share) → € 90.30
• The share price is currently around €45, which is why we can assume that the share could well double in the next 5 years.

Dangers

Finally, I would like to mention a few dangers as to why the share could possibly perform weaker after all

• The calculated profit can be influenced by many factors and should only show what is possible
• Expert sees margin increase for 2025 as ambitious - https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/18456960-fielmann-ag-analysten-geteilter-meinung-chancen-herausforderungen
• Market entry in the USA is very expensive and the eyewear market there is "more competitive"
• In the European market, Fielmann is threatened by online opticians such as Mister Spex or Brillen.de

Feel free to share your own thoughts, what else you can think of and give me feedback

Best regards

Julian

Sources:

https://eulerpool.com/aktie/Fielmann-Group-Aktie-DE0005772206