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What if you become unemployed and or don't get your promotion?
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@income_magician_28 look in the Bundestag they all got their doctorates too.
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@income_magician_28 Promotion is relatively predictable - I think those who don't make it already know that before the defense.

Whether the salary increases afterwards is of course not as certain as it is made out to be. But in certain areas it is certainly more lucrative than being employed by the university and having to raise third-party funds.

He will already know roughly what he is doing. He can certainly cope with the 18k, gambling it away if necessary. He has apparently already answered the question of whether it makes sense to take such a high risk.