So first of all: @ccf Interesting post. But if that is the case, and we are indeed at the end of the boom - what is the best way to deal with it? What is the best way to position ourselves for the (possible) coming recession? Personally, I have a buy and hold ETF portfolio that I will continue to save and leave untouched until I retire. But I also have a stock portfolio where I don't just buy and hold, but also experiment a bit, shift, etc. Which stocks make the most sense to bet on when a recession is just around the corner? Are there any empirical values on which investments are the best or most lucrative way to get through such a period?
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@Der_Leeh Buy and Hold should also carry through recessions, so you should not change anything or much here. At best, you can check your portfolio to see if there is anything in there that you are not convinced will work for another 10 years -> In other words, you should examine your B&H for the long term. What is also usually quite attractive in economically weakened times are dividend stocks, but there are plenty of discussions already and at least two opinions on this. Basically, however, always keep some powder dry, because falling prices are also just good entry opportunities ;)
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@Der_Leeh If I was paying attention well enough in economics class, the goal is to keep the boom as long as possible and to cushion the necessary recession. That it must come due to too much money in circulation to a recession (eternal growth is not possible) now but the state intervenes. Thanks to ordoliberalism. Now subsidies are distributed and taxes and interest rates are adjusted. That the interest rates are adjusted is only a matter of time because the Fed has already done that and the pressure on the ECB with Lagarde and co. is growing. The Stability Act is formulated so that the state must act quickly. But long story short: What do we investors (especially with B&H) have to do now. As stupid as it sounds, hope for the politicians and wait it out. What you should think about, however, is how big the risk capital (shares/crypto/ETF) you want to use. Because if you then need money and have to sell part of the negative positions is really annoying. So at the moment it is better to invest only what you do not need acutely, but still do not be afraid of the market. In addition, the stock market is usually ahead of its time, which is why we will laugh about the time now in the foreseeable future.
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