At 10%, you have weighted the emerging markets significantly higher than indicated. Why 10%? Since Germany is slowly being deindustrialized, is approaching EM in more and more metrics and the Dax is now highly correlated with EM indices, I would add the 5% Dax to the 5% EM.
Even if we may still be emotionally attached to the old days and our status as an industrialized nation, there are no longer many differences in terms of investment and politics.
The question remains whether 10% EM is acceptable to you?
Even if we may still be emotionally attached to the old days and our status as an industrialized nation, there are no longer many differences in terms of investment and politics.
The question remains whether 10% EM is acceptable to you?
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@EpiThank you for your feedback. Have I miscalculated or do the 10% come from the imaginary EM 5 + DAX 5?
I can certainly live with the 10%, as the classic ratio would actually be 70/30. But I also take it from your words that the plan is not so bad 😀
I can certainly live with the 10%, as the classic ratio would actually be 70/30. But I also take it from your words that the plan is not so bad 😀
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@Epi yes Moin, 3rd largest world economy to be counted as EM because there is no growth
That's real Bild Zeitungen logic
If we don't do anything for 20 years now, if politics doesn't change anything, maybe. Otherwise it's complete nonsense.
That's real Bild Zeitungen logic
If we don't do anything for 20 years now, if politics doesn't change anything, maybe. Otherwise it's complete nonsense.
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•@leveragegrinding You got me! 😅
Still, you have to explain the high correlation between Dax and EM recently. How do you explain it?
Still, you have to explain the high correlation between Dax and EM recently. How do you explain it?
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@Epi China Dependence ...
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•@Epi you don't have to explain imo, macro or from an economics point of view 3 years is nothing for an economy. If we run the same for 10+ years, you can think about it.
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•@leveragegrinding It is quite unlikely that a single economy will keep pace with a conglomerate of EM for 10+ years. It is also uninteresting because 10 years have already passed.
The point is to explain the trend of the past 3 years and to use this explanation to infer the development of the next 7 years.
And let's be honest, there is hardly an approach with a worse track record in market forecasting than VWL. 😅
The point is to explain the trend of the past 3 years and to use this explanation to infer the development of the next 7 years.
And let's be honest, there is hardly an approach with a worse track record in market forecasting than VWL. 😅
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