11.10.2024

USA: Inflation weakens less than expected + Next reporting season starts with the banks + Zalando becomes more optimistic for 2024 + US ELECTION 2024: Three scenarios for the economy

In the US, inflation weakened less than expected in September. Consumer prices rose by 2.4 percent compared to the same month last year, as the US Department of Labor announced in Washington on Thursday. The inflation rate is the lowest since February 2021, having stood at 2.5 percent in September. Economists had expected the rate to fall more sharply to 2.3 percent. Compared to the previous month, prices rose by 0.2%. Economists had only forecast an increase of 0.1 percent. The core inflation rate excluding energy and food rose from 3.2 percent in August to 3.3 percent in September. Compared to the previous month, core consumer prices rose by 0.3%. An increase of only 0.2% had been forecast here. The Fed pays particular attention to the core rate. According to experts, it reflects the general price trend better than the overall rate. The Fed is aiming for an inflation rate of two percent in the medium term. The Fed is heading for a further easing of its monetary policy. The financial markets are expecting a key interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points in November. This was also the reason why the markets fell again yesterday.

The online retailer Zalando $ZAL (-0.7%) wants to go one better in 2024 after a good start to the new fall and winter season. For the current year, the gross merchandise volume (GMV) is set to increase by three to five percent to 15.1 to 15.4 billion euros, as the DAX-listed company surprisingly announced shortly after the close of trading on Thursday in Berlin. Turnover is expected to increase by two to five percent to between 10.3 and 10.7 billion euros in 2024. Previously, the managers had forecast a maximum of five percent for both key figures and stagnation in the event of unfavorable conditions. In 2023, the gross value of goods amounted to around 14.6 billion euros and turnover to 10.1 billion euros. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for the current year, adjusted for one-off effects, are now expected to rise to between 440 and 480 million euros. Previously, this figure was between 380 and 450 million euros. For 2023, Zalando had reported an adjusted operating profit of just under 350 million euros. Based on preliminary figures, the gross merchandise volume in the third quarter jumped by almost eight percent to 3.5 billion euros. In the three months to the end of September, Zalando generated sales of 2.4 billion euros, around five percent more than in the previous year. Before taxes, depreciation and amortization and excluding one-off effects (EBIT), the company generated 93 million euros - significantly more than analysts had expected on average. The Management Board plans to present the full figures on November 5. Zalando gained up to 4% yesterday.

Four weeks before the US presidential elections the polls point to a neck-and-neck race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump. If the controversial ex-president returns to the White House, Europe faces the double threat of additional tariffs and less US aid for Ukraine. On the other hand, the simultaneous elections to both chambers of Congress (Senate and House of Representatives) are almost as important for the economic prospects of the USA as the race for the White House. This is because while the President has far-reaching powers in areas such as foreign and trade policy, Congress is responsible for taxes and government spending. The close election polls suggest that there will be no certainty about who will move into the White House or who will win the majority in both chambers of Congress until the final election result. We therefore examine three different scenarios for the outcome of the elections on November 5 and their impact on the economy in the US and Europe.

https://www.berenberg.de/uploads/web/Economics/Documents-DE/Trends/241010_Makro-Trends_US-Wahl.pdf

Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Stock exchange holiday in Hong Kong

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

12:15 Blackrock Inc, 3Q results

12:45 JP Morgan | Wells Fargo quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

09:00 Porsche AG 3Q sales figures and pre-close call

10:00 Deutsche Telekom Continued Capital Markets Day (since 10.10.)

11:00 Volkswagen sales figures 3Q

Economic data

• 03:00 KR: Bank of Korea, Monetary Policy Council Base Rate results FORECAST: 3.25% previously: 3.50%
• 08:00 DE: Consumer Prices (final) September PROGNOSE: 0.0% yoy/+1.6% yoy Preliminary: 0.0% yoy/+1.6% yoy Previous: -0.1% yoy/+1.9% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: -0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy Preliminary: -0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy Previous: -0.2% yoy/+2.0% yoy
• 08:00 UK: GDP month August | trade balance August | industrial production August
• 14:30 US: Producer prices September Forecast: +0.1% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy Core rate (excluding food and energy) Forecast: +0.2% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy
• 16:00 US: Index consumer sentiment Uni Michigan (1st survey) October FORECAST: 71.0 previous: 70.1