11Mon
Interesting considerations. Can you briefly explain why South America didn't stick around? After all, India is one of the most expensive stock markets in the world.
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@Epi Yes, it's relatively expensive at the moment, that's true. In the long term, however, it will probably (and hopefully) still be cheap. I could imagine South America as a separate ETF. However, I'm not sure where the politics in Brazil will lead. Argentina is also interesting now, although the introduction of the USD is very radical again. I've done less work on the other countries (not to say not at all 😅)
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@DividendenWaschbaer Interesting. From your reason against Brazil, I conclude that you are sure where India's policy will lead. Correct? What about the geopolitical conflicts with China, Pakistan?
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•@Epi Not safe, but safer. India has a functioning democracy. That is an advantage compared to China (in the long term). As far as foreign policy is concerned, Brazil is still quite undecided, as far as I've noticed so far. India is also still very attached to Russia and buys from it. However, I have the impression that India is trying to remain relatively neutral and is simply not losing sight of its own economy and its own advantages. Of course, the regional conflicts should not be neglected. But I hope that nothing escalates. Ultimately, it is also in India's interest not to let anything escalate there. Of course, you never know. Ultimately, however, I actually see India, Mexico, Brazil and Vietnam as the most interesting countries here (in that order). As I said, Argentina could become interesting now. But a lot has to happen there first. I actually see China as having the most potential. The political situation there (with Taiwan but also with Russia) is too volatile for me at the moment.
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@DividendenWaschbaer I did some quick research. India has a score of 6.61 in the Economist's 2022 democracy ranking, Brazil has 6.86. So either you have other sources, or your judgment is not based on facts. With its caste system and discriminatory religion, India certainly has problems that stand in the way of a free economy. I am not saying that India is not an interesting market. But it is a complicated market with a foreign culture that is difficult for us to understand. Not as foreign as China, but more foreign than Christian South America, which is simply closer to capitalism and the free trade agreement with the EU is also up in the air. This could completely reshuffle the global cards.
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•@Epi I am well aware of that. That's why I said that India has a functioning democracy compared to China. And then I said that Brazilian politics is currently still too uncertain for me as far as the future direction is concerned. Especially (but not only) in terms of foreign policy, which is why I think Brazil is very interesting. But only after it is clearer in which direction it is heading.
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11Mon
@DividendenWaschbaer I can confirm that. I have a friend from São Paulo who emigrated this year (to the NL). Couldn't stand it in BR any longer. Extreme corruption in politics and business, robberies in broad daylight in large parts of the city (sometimes you have to take off your new Nikes at gunpoint), etc. He left his family and partner behind and will only return when he feels the situation is changing. He now knows many people who have turned their backs on Brazil (engineers, doctors, etc.). Most of them probably love their home country, but can't stand it any more at some point - especially those who get around professionally and can therefore make comparisons. S
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@KevinC That sounds tough. A good friend from school has a Brazilian partner. Near Sao Paulo. He was there for a while, but then she went to Germany with him. It was clear that there are bad corners there and that every middle-class citizen has a house with walls in a gated community, but it's that bad... Brazil still has a long way to go. On the other hand, it's interesting that they're still in a better democratic position than India. Sometimes a grumbling German needs to be brought back down to earth. 😅
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@Epi Yes, I thought it was pretty extreme when I first heard that. India has enough problems for that too, of course. I think if I had to choose, I would lean towards Brazil (without having traveled to both countries). I was once offered an expat position in India and looked into it a lot. The living conditions (which you get from intensive research without any personal experience) actually put me off accepting the - otherwise very attractive - position. I think you can have good experiences in many countries, but also bad ones. The probability varies a little when in doubt 😅 Back to topic: all this has little to do with the stock market in the respective countries. I have had experience with Infosys and was amazed at how well the training courses worked, for example.
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