Martin (@MitVerstandzumKapital) on getquin

4Mon·

Hello and a happy new year to all investors. To all those who are not yet, I wish you a speedy return to your senses :)

Do such forecasts influence your investment behavior?

It looks like the emerging markets doing well in 2024 and in the EU is asleep.

Well, I have been investing in an EM ETF for over 4 years. This is currently still in the red, but that could soon change if this forecast is to be believed!

Are you planning in 2024 to do something different? Perhaps to learn from mistakes you made in 2023 and before? Or because you simply didn't like certain decisions? Or perhaps precisely because of such forecasts and the search for better opportunities?

2024 can come and will certainly be just as exciting as 2023, which looked really weak at the beginning and then turned out really well!

With this in mind...

Good returns to all!

p.s: Content will start again here soon. I'm still on vacation :)

#emergingmarkets
#etfs
#etf
#wirtschaft
#wachstum
#prognose
#2024
#rendite
#emetf
#indien
#china

62 Comments

Ronald@AlterMann

4Mon

Well ahead of Argentina 👍🏼 And much better than at the ESC...

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PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

4Mon

@MitVerstandzumKapital I am also overweighting the emerging markets, but please don't make the mistake of believing that a country's economic growth correlates with its equity returns.
This is not the case!
Several studies have come to the same conclusion:

"Intuitively, one might think that stock returns are the result of the underlying growth of the real economy.
However, we found that long-term real earnings growth in many countries over the observed period lagged behind long-term GDP growth in many countries over the observed period.
lagged behind long-term GDP growth in many countries during the observed period.
This discrepancy can be explained by several factors. First, in today's integrated world, we need to look at global rather
global rather than local markets. Secondly, a significant proportion of economic growth comes from new
companies rather than from the high growth of existing companies; this leads to a dilution of GDP growth before it reaches shareholders.
before it reaches shareholders. Finally, expected economic growth may be priced into prices
and thus reduce future returns.
In their refined version, supply-side models tie a country's stock returns to its GDP growth, but
they do not suggest a perfect match between the two variables. Instead, they consider real GDP
growth as an upper bound for long-term stock returns, as other factors dilute GDP before it reaches shareholders.
reaches shareholders.
However, the empirical analysis of the hypothesized relationship between GDP and stock growth has certain
limitations. Although we use a relatively long-term international stock data set, the analysis
results depend on the start and end dates of the time series, as the economy and stocks follow cyclical patterns.
and equities follow cyclical patterns. Another problem concerns the role of investors' expectations. If
the expectation of future GDP growth is fully incorporated into today's valuations, stock price movements"

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/a134c5d5-dca0-420d-875d-06adb948f578

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Sully L.@SullyLockwood

4Mon

No indeed, no EM. Maybe an India ETF. China and other countries that are in an EM ETF are politically far too risky for me.

From February my savings plan will be running at $SPY5

As I said, this is my personal opinion.

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Sully L.@SullyLockwood

4Mon

$SPY5

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Poppinger91@Poppinger91

4Mon

I've been invested in EM IMI since the coronavirus low in April '20, now with a 5-digit position and recently returned to a narrow 2% gain. Due to the lousy performance of the last few years, I was also considering switching to the core MSCI, but haven't dared to do so yet because I'm unsure. Hopefully EM will move up a bit :)!

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Erich D.@Erich_D

4Mon

Germany is growing dynamically once again ... and we owe it all to Habeck, Scholz & Lindner. With a government like this, we are really served ...

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Smudo@Smudeo

4Mon

@MitVerstandzumKapital Do you have a WKN for the EM EZF?

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Bardok@AE23

4Mon

Russia's economic growth is higher than Germany's, despite all the Western sanctions.

Unfortunately, you can see that the economic West is on the decline and the BRICS countries are slowly catching up with us...

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Drachen@Drachen

4Mon

well ahead of argentina, but is doing well

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devnerd_daddy@devnerd_daddy

4Mon

I realized that I actually wanted to reply to your original post :) I have been investing in the MSCI India for quite some time now, as I am convinced of the positive change in the country and in fact this has been the position that has developed the most in the last year. I will continue to hold on to it, because with China becoming an increasingly unreliable partner, companies will hopefully become more diversified in the Asian region. India is only a part of it, but a relatively large one and they already have a long partnership with western companies. I also keep an eye on $EXCH, but Taiwan is too big a risk factor for me with a 20% weighting. If it crashes with China, it will plummet immediately.

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