Julius (@JuliusVonSylt) on getquin

1Yr·

Market Opinion for Asia

🤷‍♂🤷‍♀️ Neutral

🇨🇳🇹🇼 I would be interested to know what you think about the #china
#taiwan conflict...

I saw a video about it yesterday where a professor was evaluating the situation and he said that it should be different here than the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For one thing, China already had the perfect time to attack Taiwan and that was when Russia attacked Ukraine because the whole world was shocked by it.

Secondly, Taiwan has a very relevant status due to the active promise of support from the US. Thus, a third world war would definitely break out if China were to attack Taiwan. This would also not be to China's advantage and thus unlikely to happen.

Because I see the probability of China attacking Taiwan as relatively low, I have thought about investments in the region (bsw. chip manufacturers). However, even with the Ukraine-Russia conflict, I could not imagine that Russia would attack and it did happen.

Therefore my question to you: What do you think? Will China attack Taiwan?

10 Comments

Raphael Steil@TheRealRapha

1Yr

The elections of the CCP stand before, one can understand therefore why Xin Ping wants to show now straight no weaknesses (he wants to be elected for the 3rd time). The US has too strong an interest in Taiwan, be it economically, but also as an important friend in the region, that a lot has to happen here for it to escalate.

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Johannes@Johannes_J

1Yr

I agree that China will not attack (maybe once in a decade) because besides the reasons you mentioned, Taiwan's geographic location makes an invasion very difficult and I don't see how China would be willing to take that risk

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SharkAce@SharkAce

1Yr

From an attack I do not assume but so without China but I think also will not be quiet. Vlt vordern the tax revenues or something 😅

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Daniele@Daniele5991

1Yr

You only have to look at how long this topic has been around and what has happened so far. It feels like every year it is said there will soon be attacked. Just think the man from Nancy Pelosi has shorted China and Taiwan shares 😂.

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Paketknecht@Paketknecht

1Yr

As long as the Taiwanese deliver enough chips to China, nothing will happen. If there are "problems", it will be tight.... Taiwan is not only extremely important for the Western economy, but also for China.

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Homer@Simpson

1Yr

The Chinese have more in mind, I can not imagine that they are so backward and stupid as Putin and his henchmen. Should they start an invasion, then we are facing a very big crisis and World War 3.

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Stockmarketbird@Stockmarketbird

1Yr

You've probably seen Prof. Rieck. Super guy. 👍 I also don't think China will attack Taiwan. The conflict has been simmering for decades, China would have had enough opportunities to attack. As long as Taiwan has the US and Japan as protective powers, China will not dare to do so. They can't afford to.

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