Alexxela (@Alexxela) on getquin

10Mon·

All Country World vs. Nasdaq 100

I've been here for a couple of weeks and regularly look at the portfolios presented and the reactions/recommendations.

One thing is particularly striking in my opinion: All Country World ETFs are generally seen as the holy grail and investments in technology stocks such as the Nasdaq 100 are seen as a risk (just like an overweighting of the USA, according to the motto "be warned"). Why is that?

The annual return of the $QQQ calculated for the last 30 years was 13.76%*

In the case of e.g. $VT (+0.73%) the annual return was 6.23%*

1$ invested in QQQ on 01.02.1994 would be worth 47.87$ today vs. 6.13$ in the case of VT*

*Source: regarding QQQ https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/etf/invesco-qqq-trust-qqq/

regarding VT https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/all-country-world-stocks-portfolio/

Of course, the QQQ drops more in percentage terms than VT in bad phases, but in the long term it still remains better.

In the case of a long investment horizon (e.g. from 15 years) with a savings plan, I see no reason to avoid the QQQ or similar values across the board or to advise against them.

It is not a recommendation on my part, everyone should decide for themselves ... just take everything into consideration...

35 Comments

Rmann@Epi

10Mon

The question is basically justified. The long-term return of QQQ is almost twice as high as that of VT.
So what is the argument against QQQ? As has already been said, it is essentially the volatility. You have to be able to withstand 80% maxDD. It's certainly possible in a savings plan, but I don't know anyone who went through the 2001-2004 DD unscathed. QQQ only reached the 2001 level again in 2013, the return since 2001 is close to or below that of VT! You have to endure that! It is above all a psychological question. Perhaps it is precisely this aspect that generates QQQ's excess return?

Anyway: if you have time and nerves, QQQ is probably the best choice objectively. Also economically, because the greatest growth, the most innovation and the best economies of scale can be found in QQQQ. The mixed goods store VT can't hold a candle to that.

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Enrique@Der_Dividenden_Monteur

10Mon

Yes, if the stock market were that easy...
You just have to ask yourself whether you can withstand the draw downs in the nasdaq.
If not, the world is the answer.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

10Mon

https://www.boerse-online.de//nachrichten/aktien/entdeckt-der-beste-etf-der-welt-und-darum-koennen-sie-sich-zukuenftig-auf-noch-mehr-wachstum-freuen-20348594.html

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Alexxela@Alexxela

10Mon

Edit: this was meant as a reply to @Dividenden-Stamms message with the €10,000

Everyone understands what he wants... I was talking about regular purchases and long term... for 10.000€ to suddenly dissolve in sec. even on a very bad day with -10% a portfolio of 100.000€ would be necessary... i.e.
1) you are at the beginning and have invested everything at once - which you should not do and was also ruled out by me...
2) Portfolio has grown over several years to the value, then you are no longer new to the stock market...
3) you are new to the stock market and have invested everything because the €100,000 is not a lot of money for you, then this should also be manageable and you can then buy more...

And we're talking about the most valuable 100 tech companies, not altcoins...

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Pezi@Pezi

10Mon

Then just do it and be done with it...

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Krush82@Krush82

10Mon

I'm already relatively risk-averse, I'm very invested in tech and the US. But I also opted for the world etf ETF, not because I think the qqq is the devil's bargain, but because I don't have the confidence to bear the max DD, or rather that I wouldn't have the time to recover the losses by the time I retire if the worst came to the worst

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kenan@shatter

10Mon

the last 30 years maybe not the next 30 years

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MrMister@MrMister

10Mon

The best ETF for many years is the Ishares Nasdaq 100.

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Felix@Investor_in_Jogginghose

10Mon

I wonder how the nasdaq100 would have performed over 30 years if it had had the rules of the s&p500 in terms of earnings history etc. Then it probably wouldn't have escalated so much in the .com bubble. Basically, the Nasdaq100 has the same rules as the World, it just happens to be betting on the right sector.

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Nico Uhlig@RealMichaelScott

10Mon

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

This applies to both the long-term outperformance of the US and the outperformance of the technology sector. Who is telling you that the QQQ will continue to perform like this?

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