Economy on 21.03.2024...

Day after the FED decision. What does Powell say. IPO of Douglas today! What do you think about it? ⤵️

Yesterday was the day again. The Fed met and presented its decision to the public. Nobody actually expected interest rates to be lowered yet, so the statements Powell made afterwards in the press conference and how the Fed sees the future were all the more important! The market takes its strength from this or not. Here are a few excerpts from the meeting:

The statement goes on to say that rate cuts may not be appropriate "until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving toward 2% on a sustained basis." They remain determined to achieve the inflation target.

By the end of the year, the members of the Federal Open Market Committee are holding out the prospect of further median interest rate cuts totaling 0.75 percentage points in the so-called dot plot, which corresponds to three interest rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each. When the last dot plot was published in December, three interest rate cuts were also forecast. The market now also expects three interest rate cuts by the end of 2024, after six interest rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each were expected at the beginning of the year.

It is therefore now expected that interest rates will be cut in June. The markets probably started to price this in yesterday! Bitcoin and so on have also started to turn again.

In general, the markets are really fun again. There are lots of opportunities that can be exploited, but a large proportion of investments are still heading north. I've started to collect a few things and many companies from my WL are still interesting. Vonovia has now been punished again in the short term, but I still think that the intrinsic value of the company is much higher. Considering the interest rate cuts, a lot could be possible. Maybe I'll write a post about my complete WL soon, add it here at getquin and write my personal opinion on each stock. I'll keep that in mind.

Here we go for today's trading day:

Economic data

07:00

• EU: ECB, Annual Report on Banking Supervision 2023

08:45

• FR: Business Climate Index March FORECAST: 100 previous: 100

09:15

• FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (1st release) March PROGNOSE: 48.8 PREV: 48.4 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (1st release) PROGNOSE: 48.4 PREV: 48.1
• FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing (1st release) March FORECAST: 47.5 PREVIOUS: 47.1

09:30

• DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (1st release) March PROGNOSE: 48.9 PREVIOUS: 48.3 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (1st release) PROGNOSE: 47.0 PREVIOUS: 46.3
• DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing (1st release) March FORECAST: 43.5 previously: 42.5
• CH: Swiss National Bank (SNB), outcome of the Monetary Policy Council meeting March key interest rate FORECAST: 1.75% previously: 1.75%

10:00

• EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing Eurozone (1st release) March FORECAST: 50.5 PREVIOUS: 50.2
• EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing Eurozone (1st release) March FORECAST: 47.0 PREVIOUS: 46.5 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (1st release) FORECAST: 49.8 PREVIOUS: 49.2

10:30

• UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (1st release) March FORECAST: 53.9 PREVIOUS: 53.8
• UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (1st release) March FORECAST: 47.8 PREVIOUS: 47.5

13:00

• UK: BoE, outcome and minutes of the Monetary Policy Council meeting and Monetary Policy Report Bank Rate PROGNOSE: 5.25% previously: 5.25%

13:30

• US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 213,000 previously: 209,000
• US: Current Account 4Q FORECAST: -206.6 bn USD Q3: -200.3 bn USD
• US: Philadelphia Fed Index March FORECAST: -5.0 previous: 5.2

14:45

• US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Service (1st release) March FORECAST: 52.0 previously: 52.3
• US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (1st release) March FORECAST: 51.8 PREVIOUS: 52.2

15:00

• US: Leading Indicators Index February FORECAST: -0.1% yoy previous: -0.4% yoy
• US: Existing Home Sales February FORECAST: -1.3% yoy previous: +3.1% yoy

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

21:00 Fedex quarterly figures

21:15 Nike quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Stratec | Heidelberg Materials | Knorr-Bremse|

07:00 Nemetschek | Aareal Bank | Docmorris

07:30 Befesa | Talanx | Hamburger Hafen | Ionos

07:30 Vossloh annual result

07:35 United Internet Annual Results

07:50 1&1 AG Annual result

08:00 LPKF Laser | New Work | Progress-Werk Annual results

09:00 BMW Annual figures 2023

09:15 IPO Douglas - First listing

10:00 Porsche Automobil Holding Annual results

10:00 Carl Zeiss Meditec AGM

10:30 Andritz | Givaudan AGM

11:00 Talanx | United Internet BI-PK

13:00 Bayer AG Pharma Media Day

17:50 Enel annual result

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