3Mon
Imagine what happens in times of crisis and in which scenario you need gold. If it's only a minor crisis (economic depression), you don't need gold. If the shit really hits the fan, it's of little use to you either. Gold is only a crisis hedge in some intermediate scenarios.
Then imagine what would happen if hundreds of counterfeit bars were suddenly in circulation (there were a lot of gold bars with cobalt cores in Germany in 2012!) Certificates of authenticity are even easier to forge. Then you need a trustworthy body to certify the authenticity for you and the buyer.
If you want to avoid this stress, I would go for well-known coins that are difficult to counterfeit. The new Maple Leafs are a safe bet with their engraved hologram.
Then imagine what would happen if hundreds of counterfeit bars were suddenly in circulation (there were a lot of gold bars with cobalt cores in Germany in 2012!) Certificates of authenticity are even easier to forge. Then you need a trustworthy body to certify the authenticity for you and the buyer.
If you want to avoid this stress, I would go for well-known coins that are difficult to counterfeit. The new Maple Leafs are a safe bet with their engraved hologram.
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@Epi The scenario in which I really need gold will hopefully never happen. Then fiat currency would hardly be worth anything and I would gladly disappear from Europe. It may sound a bit paranoid, but you never know.
Thanks, the point about counterfeit protection is really good. I'd only thought about that in passing so far. I'm actually flirting with the half ounce Maple Leaf from 2024. Do the Maple Leaf coins all have this hard-to-counterfeit hologram or just the 1 ounce coins?
Thanks, the point about counterfeit protection is really good. I'd only thought about that in passing so far. I'm actually flirting with the half ounce Maple Leaf from 2024. Do the Maple Leaf coins all have this hard-to-counterfeit hologram or just the 1 ounce coins?
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3Mon
@Psychedelic_Sunflower You're funny!
How far do you think 2 coins of gold will get you in your new country? You might be able to finance 2 months' rent with that, because 1 million emigrants will already be flooding the market with gold coins by then. And how do you think you'll get out of the old country with 100 coins? You can't fly. Neither can a boat, in both you will be searched and have to hand in the coins. That leaves the car. Well, and when the security structures have dissolved (see Mexico), you can simply give your coins to the next militiaman, who will let you live as a thank you. 😅
Nah, nah, if you're going to be psycho, then do it properly!
How far do you think 2 coins of gold will get you in your new country? You might be able to finance 2 months' rent with that, because 1 million emigrants will already be flooding the market with gold coins by then. And how do you think you'll get out of the old country with 100 coins? You can't fly. Neither can a boat, in both you will be searched and have to hand in the coins. That leaves the car. Well, and when the security structures have dissolved (see Mexico), you can simply give your coins to the next militiaman, who will let you live as a thank you. 😅
Nah, nah, if you're going to be psycho, then do it properly!
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@Epi What would be these "intermediate scenarios" you mentioned in which gold, in whatever form, would be useful? Or do you think gold is a completely superfluous asset if I don't value something sparkly and a bit of bling bling?
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3Mon
@Psychedelic_Sunflower An intermediate scenario would be, for example, a highly inflationary phase, a deep economic crisis, a war, in each of which the social structures remain fundamentally intact and emigration would be unnecessary.
You need a long-term plan for emigration. Which country? How about citizenship now? etc. In general, Bitcoin would perhaps be more flexible, even if there is a risk that BTC will not be recognized in the destination country.
You need a long-term plan for emigration. Which country? How about citizenship now? etc. In general, Bitcoin would perhaps be more flexible, even if there is a risk that BTC will not be recognized in the destination country.
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@Epi Yes, these are all valid points and there is a lot of uncertainty in the whole story. I will probably still buy some physical gold as a portfolio addition. Around 5% of the portfolio. An equally high proportion of Bitcoin is already in my wallet.
Thank you for your, as always, critical but justified comments.
Thank you for your, as always, critical but justified comments.
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3Mon
@Psychedelic_Sunflower Gold is a great diversifier. Reduces the portfolio volatility by up to half. But a 5% share does nothing. If the markets halve, gold will at most double. A 10% share is the absolute minimum for it to be relevant for the portfolio. 25% is better, 30% the optimum. Nobody likes to hear that, but that's how it has been for the last 50 years and will probably remain for the next 50 years.
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