The past week was really impressive as far as crypto is concerned. The crypto cycle was impressively visible in miniature format. At the beginning of the week $BTC (+0.05%) rose in the form of a staircase and has $ETH (-0.41%) followed with a time lag. Altcoins then followed with consolidation.
In detail, for example $BCH (-0.42%) , $LTC (-2.59%) , $LINK (-0.39%) or $DOT (-1.14%) rose behind BTC and ETH.
You can also roughly see in the charts below how the money first goes into BTC, when this is saturated then into ETH and finally into altcoins. So I think you can really ride the crypto wave, despite the enormous risk.
But this is not investment advice! Icould be completely wrong. Please make up your own mind. This is just my interpretation. I will ride this wave in the coming bull market and since very little of my total assets are invested, it won't hurt me if I am wrong.
So that means I will sell off the BTC holdings first in the bull market, gradually. I will definitely not hit the top. If I project the past into the future, it should start from Nov/Dec '24. ETH and the altcoins will follow step by step before all BTC is sold off.
And how do I find my exit prices? By taking the current low of the bear market that has just ended and multiplying it by a factor. This is based on the difference between the low of the penultimate bear market and the last bull market. The factor with a discount.
With a discount, as the BTC will rise less in percentage terms than in the last cycle. At least that's what I think. So I then set myself several levels. As a further guide, I use the Bitcoin rainbow chart, which shows me levels based on the logarithmic chart and price levels in the colors of the rainbow. https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
If everything is bought, then that's good. If something remains, that's also OK. In any case, my sell levels will be so high that I will go home with a tax-free profit, as I stopped my crypto savings plans last December and accumulated during the past bear market.
So I have almost set my first sell level for the coins. I am still thinking about the factor level and the tranche size for the sell-off, which I will then set using limit orders. The whole process has to be automated, as emotions can destroy the entire strategy.
Why do I actually sell, even if I build up the stocks again later? Because I am convinced that, unlike the stock market, no value is created with cryptos. My profits will be the loss of others, there are no capital gains that can be distributed, as things are produced / created that are included in the economic output in between....
And then there are the videos by Balthasar Becker (see YouTube and X), who explains what could be the cause of the crypto cycle. Not the BTC halving (although I think this is a minor partial cause), but the "money printing orgy". So I believe that the coming interest rate cut will lift all boats. Until then, I'll be watching carefully, then the orders will be activated and cashed out step by step. I'm really looking forward to it.
The funds released will then go into an extra portfolio. I will use the dividends that the shares/ETFs will then generate for me from the crypto sales to accumulate crypto holdings again in the coming bear market. I then want to play this crypto cycle again later. At some point (>2030), BTC (and later ETH) will no longer have this extreme volatility, so I will stay with HODL.
I have also seen parts of this strategy on other YouTube channels. What do you think about it? Would you ride the wave or stick with the classic HODL?
