3Yr·

Do you still see a future in tobacco products? I don't smoke cigarettes, but every now and then I have a shisha. The question arises for me, because especially shisha tobacco gets new regulations. It will be more expensive and the cans will be much smaller from June/July.

11 Comments

Divmann@Divmann

3Yr

Good question. Tobacco is a growing market, sounds strange, but in fact it is true. The percentage of smokers is decreasing, but because the world population is growing so fast, 9% of the people in 2030 (in absolute figures) are more than 10% in 2000. More cigarettes are sold every year. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Estimated-evolution-of-global-cigarette-consumption-in-billions-of-sticks-to-2020_fig1_305639405 BUT: You always have to look at where the company sells its cigarettes. Altria is actually operating in a declining market (although for 30 years and still the profit increases every year, but it is not nice as an investor), others are operating worldwide. On the other hand, a cigarette in the developed world brings much more in sales than one in India. How well one will compensate for the declining consumption in the industrialized countries, only the future can tell. No investment advice, no guarantee of accuracy of the data

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Europoor@Europoor

3Yr

@Divmann Just do a Gurilliamarketing campaign on DingDong or whatever the kids' apps are called.

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Divmann@Divmann

3Yr

I don't even think you need that, everyone likes unhealthy stuff

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Der_Reverend@Der_Reverend

3Yr

How true...!

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MaK@DollarDon

3Yr

If I would invest in tobacco, then in companies with large China business. Here are some arguments: 1) In China there are over 300 million smokers 2) Every second man in China smokes 3) Smoking is not considered harmful in China at all, so there are hardly any restrictions 😉

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Paketknecht@Paketknecht

3Yr

@DollarDon The tobacco market in China is firmly in state hands and China National Tobacco is the largest tobacco manufacturer in the world.

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Vic@Vic1

3Yr

In the medium term, yes. In the long term, no. I think at some point it will no longer be sustainable to produce cigarettes due to other incentives, unless it becomes more sustainable

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Ned Flanders@DaemlicherFlanders

3Yr

The day Karin Ritter died, my belief in the continued existence of the tobacco industry also died. Sure, they pay dividends, but their customer base is getting smaller and smaller (a problem of their own making), which was only somewhat offset by the fact that we had Karin Ritter.

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FIRE_mit_50@HanSolo

3Yr

Absolutely not an investment for me. Great dividends, these will also be paid in the future. BUT: ...have you looked at the share price over the last 10 years?

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Deleted User

3Yr

Comment was deleted

Der_Reverend@Der_Reverend

3Yr

@MelonUsk97 ok that's interesting. I only notice in my environment that more and more people are quitting. But you forget the young people who also start smoking...

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