4Mon
What the others say. Besides: 5% increase and then into a new value, again 5% increase, etc. are clearly >60%, with 12 repetitions. Thanks to compound interest.
How realistic it is to beat 99.999% of all investors every single year is for you to decide.
How realistic it is to beat 99.999% of all investors every single year is for you to decide.
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@ag84 as others have already commented plus...as I understand your post, you would invest "serially" with amount x, i.e. only invest in a new share when you have sold the old share with +5%... phew that's quite unlikely in terms of timing. I'm afraid that apart from a theoretically possible variant / thought experiment, there's not much left.
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4Mon
@TomTurboInvest Yes, that's exactly what I meant!
What I find quite interesting is that such an approach would give you a fairly precisely defined window for the return and holding period to be taken along - in other words, for a strategy, actually quite good framework points for the sell decision:
1. either the targeted return is reached (e.g. 5%)
2. or the targeted return is not achieved in the targeted period (e.g. 1 month)
Both cases would then be clear sell points. If the 5% is reached before the end of a month, there is still a chance to improve the annual performance or to compensate for poor performance.
What I find quite interesting is that such an approach would give you a fairly precisely defined window for the return and holding period to be taken along - in other words, for a strategy, actually quite good framework points for the sell decision:
1. either the targeted return is reached (e.g. 5%)
2. or the targeted return is not achieved in the targeted period (e.g. 1 month)
Both cases would then be clear sell points. If the 5% is reached before the end of a month, there is still a chance to improve the annual performance or to compensate for poor performance.
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4Mon
@ag84 if you are sure that you will find at least 10 stocks within a year - one after the other - that will increase by at least 5% (actually more, since you have to compensate for the losses of the unsuccessful attempts) -> go for it!
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•4Mon
@KevinC The 5% was just an example - but even at 10x 3% you would still end up with a respectable 30% at the end of the year.
I find the discussion here really exciting! But I have to honestly admit that I don't really have a feel for the accuracy and the timeline at the moment. Maybe I'm just suffering from BIAS because that happened to me last month with two values.
On the other hand, it kind of challenged me to really try it out for myself and see how often and with what increase you can go out :-)
I find the discussion here really exciting! But I have to honestly admit that I don't really have a feel for the accuracy and the timeline at the moment. Maybe I'm just suffering from BIAS because that happened to me last month with two values.
On the other hand, it kind of challenged me to really try it out for myself and see how often and with what increase you can go out :-)
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4Mon
@ag84 Good luck!
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•@ag84 How do you arrive at a fixed time period such as one month? Wouldn't it be better to focus on defined entry and exit points, e.g. derived from technical indicators?
I.e. a share can sometimes run longer, but much more than 5%
PS: much more important for the beginning is the targeted selling point in case the trade does not work out as desired! Money management! If you are interested in this topic, you will find a pinned post in my profile
I.e. a share can sometimes run longer, but much more than 5%
PS: much more important for the beginning is the targeted selling point in case the trade does not work out as desired! Money management! If you are interested in this topic, you will find a pinned post in my profile
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4Mon
@TomTurboInvest This was just an initial assumption, taking into account the need to achieve a high frequency of small wins. In order to create frequency, you have to abort an attempt at some point or consider it a lost attempt.
In the example mentioned at the beginning, the assumption or goal was to achieve 5% 12 times a year, in other words once a month.
If a value was then at 3% after one month, for example, you would take the 3% with you and start a new attempt instead of taking 2 months to reach 5%.
What technical reference points did you have in mind?
In the example mentioned at the beginning, the assumption or goal was to achieve 5% 12 times a year, in other words once a month.
If a value was then at 3% after one month, for example, you would take the 3% with you and start a new attempt instead of taking 2 months to reach 5%.
What technical reference points did you have in mind?
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@ag84 technical chart analysis - points with a lot of volume... resistance or support etc...
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4Mon
@TomTurboInvest that would of course be a more precise approach in the evaluation for the exit.
First and foremost, I wanted to challenge the idea of betting on short-term developments.
First and foremost, I wanted to challenge the idea of betting on short-term developments.
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