4Mon·

#strategie


Hello everyone and a happy new year!


I'm currently thinking about how I can optimize my trading strategy or how I can start by creating a proper strategy.

My previous investments in my conservative retirement provision portfolio were traditionally based on ETFs (e.g. MSCI World) and in my "play money portfolio" I am currently more "spontaneously" driven. I want to change that now.


My specific question to you:

There is a stock market rule: "Back and forth empties your pockets".

I can of course follow this in my head and it sounds logical at first.


On the other hand, if I make 12 trades in a year, in which I sell directly after a 5% increase in the respective value, I would have an annual return of 60% (minus fees, etc.).


Of course, selecting the stocks for the 12 trades involves a certain amount of risk. The target profit of 5% is only an example calculation, but even at 4% you would still have an annual return of 48%. I think the chance of achieving such a return with a single stock that you hold for the whole year is rather less likely.


What do you think of the two investment approaches?

I look forward to a constructive discussion!


Best regards,

Alex


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Happy New Year to you too.
At the end of the day, you're trying to time the market, which is much harder than you think.
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Point 1: you must not mix trading with long-term investing. These are two different approaches. One does not outweigh the other.

Point 2: too much subjunctive in your return expectations.

The "stock market rule of thumb" you mention refers to long-term strategies, which many unfortunately do not follow through with consistently, often do not deal with their investments intensively enough or "overthink" them too much and then throw a lot of things overboard again. But this has nothing at all to do with trading, as the holding period is inevitably shorter and "back and forth" can happen as a result.

The long-term strategy refers to "investing". The short-term strategy refers to "trading". Therefore, keep the terminology and strategies clear.
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What the others say. Besides: 5% increase and then into a new value, again 5% increase, etc. are clearly >60%, with 12 repetitions. Thanks to compound interest.

How realistic it is to beat 99.999% of all investors every single year is for you to decide.
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I'll put it very directly, please don't take offense, I don't mean any harm. But what you are showing is not a strategy. You can't just say that from next year onwards I'll only invest in companies that will make 20% gains. If your suggestion worked like that, we would all soon be multimillionaires.
Do you know the Dunning-Kruger effect? You're at the 'peak' right now.
https://www.growganic.de/dunning-kruger-effekt-teufelkreis-der-inkompetenz/
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I also think that the stock market farmer's rule refers to frequent strategy changes and not to frequent trades.

Your strategy can basically work.
If your trades have a CRV of e.g. 2 (i.e. in your example max. 5% profit against max. 2.5% loss), a hit rate of 35% is already sufficient to achieve a positive expected value (of course without taking taxes and trading fees etc. into account).

Here is an interesting article with a table:

https://stock3.com/boersenwissen/crv-und-trefferquote-was-jeder-trader-wissen-muss-6865429

With the appropriate effort, this can be done profitably. Why don't you test your idea with a demo account and tell us about the results here 😉
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Another problem is that if a value doesn't go up 5% but down... what do you do? Wait? Sell and buy new? The calculation looks great. But in most cases it tends to backfire
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Let's take a coin and try to get tails 12 times in a row. If you can do that, you can also do it on the stock market ;)

Btw there are really many stocks that make >48% per year. Apple, NVIDIA, etc. That doesn't have to be the case again in 2024, but it's still 100 times more likely than flipping heads 12 times.
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in addition to the fees, you must not forget the tax. and then you must not make a mistake with your 12 trades.
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@ag84 I would try the 5% and sell right away with one or two stocks at most and never with the whole portfolio. Because it probably won't work with all 12 stocks
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The classic 100% win rate
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