Moin.
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮
If you are looking for a very normal analysis or are not fundamentally familiar with Tesla, look at Youtube videos or something as an introduction, might be useful. Definitely some analysis here too if you click on Tesla and then look through the posts below.
Oh well, one more thing, although I don't usually write something like this beforehand: I try to leave my "opinion on Tesla" out of the following.
If I can't leave it out, I'll write it in [ ]. I want to make money with the movements of the stock and therefore try to understand the valuation. If you see it differently due to details, I am happy about a comment.
Arguments worthy of a comment are defined by content, therefore do NOT count as such: "Shorten has never worked before" or "there was a human in a robot costume on stage, therefore Tesla should be at 100000000". I am seriously trying to define a meaningful valuation. <3
I. Calculate fair valuation based on current numbers.
II. variations of results
III. eeeeeeloon (imagine the pitch of Carmen Geiss when she calls Rooobert)
IV. the fking future
V. Conclusion
I) Let's goooo, 𝗭𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻
DISCLAIMER
As you may know, the Graham formula can only very roughly determine a stock price. So that alone is not a reason to buy or sell. However, I'll just do some math for fun.
EPS* (8.5+2*CAGR)
(EPS is earnings per share from Q1 to Q4 /
CAGR is basically the targeted growth the next 10 years /
Y (to be added later) is the AAA corporate bond level *see sources for further explanation*).
1st adjustment for interest rate level:
EPS* (8.5+2*CAGR)* 4.4/Y
2. i trust Tesla to grow 40% for the next 10 years, which implies that some secondary revenue sources have to become more relevant (solar, storage) or Tesla will continue to outperform the competition for a whole decade.
EPS* (8.5+2*40)*4.4/Y
-> 4,71* (8.5+ 2*40)*4,4/2.53
3. now the sold CO2 certificates are still disturbing, these are no co-growing sources of income (sink also, see source 1, page 4, column 2). Generously, this still leaves an EPS of 4.5 (provisionally estimated revenue share of certificates is only 4%), but so much time must be🧐
4,5* (8,5+ 2*40) * 4,4/2.53
= 692.60<security:
II):> 𝗘𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗯𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗲𝗻
Variation 1)
There is criticism of the formula, especially for the factor of 2. For values that are particularly dependent on growth, we do not multiply by 2, which would be quite high. Other formulas use *0.6 or at most *1.
4.5* (8.5+1*40)* 4.4/2.53 = 379.56<security:
Variation:> 2)
Then, of course, you could take Tesla's own targeted growth value (50%) without evaluating it and just rely on Musk's word [which has worked totally well in the past, especially in terms of time-related results *winksmiley*]
4.72* (8.5+1*50)* 4.4/2.53 = 480.21<security:
WICHTIG:> to really be placed in this price range, growth must be 40-50% for 10 YEARS. Should Tesla achieve other growth, here corrections with the optimistic other numbers based on the first result:
At 35% growth: 614.35<security:
Bei:> 30% growth: 536.08<security:
Bei:> 55% growth: 927.39<security:
Bei:> 60% growth: 1005.65<security:
Also:> in case anyone hasn't kept up to here:
Current price: 1080<security:
Fairer:> Price value at 60% growth, every year, the next 10 years (so basically beat every forecast, in at least every 2nd quarter): $1005
III) 𝗗𝗲𝗿 𝗞𝗻𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗽𝘂𝗻𝗸𝘁
It is possible that this growth will be met, just probably not. We are talking about the company of one of the most famous and richest people in the world, who increases company values by mentioning him in a tweet.
Fortunately, as time goes by, his word becomes more irrelevant, numbers become more important. So far, they're getting better and better; it's hard to argue against Tesla's success in what used to be a hushed industry.
Except... lately, many growth stocks have suffered. Tesla hardly.
Tesla wants to be one of them in the future. The lead in autonomous driving is becoming more meager faster than it is growing, and the traditional car manufacturers are investing billions in digitization.
(And yes, there are more Tesla vehicles with Fast Autopilot, but mainly in the U.S., because there are not as lengthy rules for testing procedures, etc. to find as here. VW is now working with an entire Greek island as a testing ground).
Not to mention any Chinese companies.
So what is left for Tesla? The reputation of the pioneer, which Tesla rightly received at that time. The brand name, VISIONS.
Solar tiles (at the moment still price-performance-technically not special)
Tesla Robot (there are companies that are much more advanced in this area).
Oh and what is actually with the Roadster, when should it come? 2020?
These are only examples of visions, which must actually come in part if the growth of the share is to be maintained, because:
IV) 𝗹𝗮 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲
I will be brief for the future.
Forecast for Germany by 2030 is 15 million EVs.
[Many experts say that we will not reach them so quickly (!), but I have already started to follow above in doubt pro Tesla. So I'll pull this through now, so we'll assume that 15 million EVs by 2030 fits].
That means Tesla's 50% growth can only come about if -as the market grows- they lose virtually no market share.
Means that even though everyone is talking about "catching up" at the moment, the other companies are just now coming out with the latest models to really compete, and Tesla's older models are already barely being bought because they have been pushed out of the market, Tesla is forecasting that they will at least maintain their currently very good market position.
🤞
V) 𝗙𝗮𝘇𝗶𝘁 and opinion.
Some experts don't even think the overall EV market is growing as some others hope it will, the trend is more towards truly green transportation (or electricity) and that takes time (infrastructure, even for dirty electricity and 15 million EVs is not enough). This already makes the growth forecast a problem.
Then I don't think solar tiles or anything else off the car (+accessories) will catch on in the mass market in large numbers.
Price/performance comparisons are a terrific disaster and as we see with Model S and X, they still play a role here.
Whether Tesla can maintain its market share also depends a lot on Musk's commercial skills. I can't judge, he prefers to speak of himself as a scientist and prefers this.
Meaning:
We currently have a share price value that has more than 50% growth more than fed in over 10 years.
Should anything happen beyond that that has a negative impact on other companies, the valuation will correct immensely directly.
And if the growth for a year is missed at some point, you can see from the variations in 2) what would be understandable relapses.
I shorten from just before ATH, but not in the long term.
[Update: https://www.tradingview.com/x/AGrTm4Ue/]
Stonks nix rational
Oh well, I recommend the first source.
𝗤𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻:
https://ir.tesla.com/#tab-quarterly-disclosure
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2021-vehicle-production-deliveries
https://diyinvestor.de/die-graham-formel-ein-einfaches-tool-zur-bewertung-von-wachstumsaktien/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AAA
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/20/tesla-tsla-earnings-q3-2021.html
https://diyinvestor.de/cash-flows-gewinne-normalisieren/
https://www.nasdaq.com/de/market-activity/stocks/tsla/earnings
https://aktien-mit-strategie.de/eine-einfache-berechnung-des-inneren-wertes-nach-benjamin-graham/
https://www.mobiflip.de/shortnews/tesla-rekord-umsatz-co2-zertifikate/
https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22471586/TSLA_Q1_2021_Update.pdf
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/18/tesla-electric-vehicle-regulatory-credits-explained.html
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/
https://bnef.turtl.co/story/evo-2021/page/3?teaser=yes
