About: ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ข๐๐ฃ๐, ๐๐๐ฌ๐จ๐ฉ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฃ๐ & ๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐๐ค๐จ๐๐ฃ
Attention will be long again, but this time much example
Quality offensive the second
Structure:
1. ๐๐๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ข๐๐ฃ๐
2. ๐๐๐ฌ๐จ๐ฉ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฃ๐
3. ๐๐๐ฃ๐ฃ ๐ข๐๐ฃ ๐๐๐ฃ ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐ฉ ๐ข๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ก๐๐ ๐ซ๐ค๐ฃ ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ก๐ก๐๐ฃ ๐ซ๐ค๐ง๐๐๐ง๐จ๐๐๐๐ฃ?
4. ๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐๐ค๐จ๐๐ฃ๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ ๐ช๐ก๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ฃ?
As some of you have probably noticed, I'm not able to access online sources consistently at the moment due to my internet provider... so I'll start my post with information from books that are sitting around at my house for now.
this is neither investment advice nor a recommendation for action, it's just an idea...
But before we start I have to give propps:
-to an English tiktok that made me think of the connection underpants - markettiming: James Mayo
- to @DonkeyInvestor who has been following me around and asking me to do something with underpants, but well, I find the topic funny myself.
ps any parallels from my fictional examples with the real world all spring from your head ๐
1. ๐๐๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ข๐๐ฃ๐
The financial flow book explains it as follows:
"those who engage in market timing try to match the perfect time to buy and sell stocks. The goal is to buy into a security at the low point just before the price rises, if possible, and then sell it off again near the high point. Completely after the slogan>>buy low, sell high<<. Short-term fluctuations and trends should also be used to achieve an excess return."
In a nutshell, if one engages in market timing, one buys/sells speculative objects because one sees them as soon increasing/decreasing in value in the current market. This is often associated with speculation on market share.
If we only use very short speculation periods, we enter an area that is strongly affected by information, whether or not this only affects one's own speculation object.
This brings us to
2. ๐๐๐ฌ๐จ๐ฉ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฃ๐
In contrast to the Markettiming here not only into the future one speculates, it is also traded on news, as an example we take times an election and enterprise figures (both by the topicality ๐ ):
The following data are purely fictitious and should only serve as an example:
Le Stift wins election in France and becomes new French president
(in reality it became Macron)
The Newstrader has already considered some scenarios in advance, and their consequences:
Le Stift: -wants to trade less with Germany
-is anti-Europe
-wants to buy a few helicopters for the military from aircraft manufacturer Busair for 100 mio.
military, assures this also to the company, the market is the
unknown to the market
From this the Newstrader has drawn its conclusions:
He goes short in the short term on a German company that generates 90% of its sales from trade with France, as this company would probably suffer from import duties or the like, thereby the price of the company will fall sharply in the short term as a very negative outlook is presented, whereby the company is considered overvalued thanks to new future forecasts.
Due to the Europhobia of le Stift, a long-term devaluation of the euro is suspected. This will also have a significant impact on the euro price in the short term as a reaction to the election victory. So the Newstrader goes to profit from the sudden weakening in the short term short euro
However, if the new trader would go short euro in the long term, we would no longer be at pure newstrading, but rather at market timing, since he can not draw this long-term weakening directly from the news, but rather speculates that the euro will be worth less in the long term, the same applies to the upper company.
So that we still have a long example:
The company Busair now publishes corporate figures and also announces the extra revenue from the helicopters, the Unternemenszahlen are significantly better than expected, the price prices at the same time the new order, so the price rises significantly, the news trader also wants to profit here and positioned shortly after the publication of the figures long Busair.
Why will the small derebete, fresh on the stock market but can not immediately profit, even if he trades after the professional Newstrader:
-Thanks to digitalization, it is possible to react quite quickly (often within milliseconds) to news with an appropriate positioning. Precisely for this reason, servers of large professional newtraders are located close to the stock exchanges, in order to be able to enter before the others, so that even the last cent is taken. So when I see a message on my cell phone with: "Busair with significantly better quarterly figures than expected" the professional is already invested.
-When Microsoft announced the purchase of Activision Blizzard, the rumor quickly went around, Bill had told Warren, because Berkshire shortly before in Activision entered. Whether this was the case I do not want to and cannot evaluate, but one thing should be clear:
not only will the professional news trader be able to get information before you (and evaluate it faster via kis), but he can also get information that is not available to you at all, or perhaps only much later.
For example, if you look at the performance of American politicians and high judges, you will see that they often outperform the market. They can do this because they are ahead of the market, they possess information before anyone else and obtain information that the young derebete would not be able to obtain without them (e.g. when questioning Ceos Salzhรผgel in court about his company).
However, one cannot completely demonize slow newstrading as private, see the example of Rheinmetall:
Although the announcement of an investment of 100 billion came suddenly, but the price rose sharply over several days and just not within 10 minutes by 100%.wir must therefore differentiate.
-We can read and evaluate information, but we often act emotionally, obliviously, and have difficulty making truly objective assessments, which means that our forecasts are often wrong or inaccurate Again, a purely fictional example:
The president of Busland, Bustin attacks a neighboring state, had for years already occupied part of the neighboring state. The little derebete has seen Bustin now and then in the news, and had forgotten the long-term occupation of the neighboring state. Politicians from derebetes country (hereinafter D-country) have quite long insisted that Bustin has no interest in attacking the neighboring state, even in the population of D-country was convinced of this. However, the forecasts of the politicians, to which a large part of D-Land was oriented, were politically motivated or blinded. accordingly, the attack comes as a surprise.
The attack has a large impact on D-Land, derebete, who thought with the company Delekom is now a breakout likely after a long bottoming (so market timing) loses his entire stake in the leverage position, because although the quarterly figures turn out better than suspected (on this had derebete bet) the price falls because of the war.
So we see from the example of the small derebetes that he has lost despite the right nose at Delekom AG due to a completely different event. He can simply not foresee everything, but there are simply too many factors in such a complicated as ours, which can whirl around the entire stock market very briefly.
However, our short-term forecast is not only jeopardized by facts:
๐ฏ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐รค๐:clearly, facts, figures, not feelings are important in the long term. Especially in the short term, however, the exact movement of a stock is often not fact-based at all, but simply radom. All those who have been on the stock market for a long time should know the phenomenon that can be observed on the stock markets almost every day at around 3:30 p.m.: the stock price makes sudden extreme fluctuations. And no, this is not due to the fact that at 15.30 break at a company is, no, at 15.30 German time, the American stock exchange opens its doors and the Ammis flock to the market. In fact, the reason that the weather there is different from ours can already influence the price.
https://www.godmode-trader.de/artikel/wie-man-mit-dem-wetterbericht-den-dax-schlaegt,5431180
who wants to read this
this brings us to the topic
3. ๐๐๐ฃ๐ฃ ๐ข๐๐ฃ ๐๐๐ฃ ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐ฉ ๐ข๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ก๐๐ ๐ซ๐ค๐ฃ ๐๐๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ก๐ก๐๐ฃ ๐ซ๐ค๐ง๐๐๐ง๐จ๐๐๐๐ฃ?
So we just noticed, there seem to be parallels between the market and other happenings. Now, if we think of events that regularly affect the broad market, we might think of unemployment numbers or something like that. After all, these are actually used to evaluate the financial situation:
More consumption=more work=good financial numbers.
However, we have also noticed (here the weather example) that there are also parallels that we do not immediately think of. Although the weather example will only affect the short-term speculators, there are also some indices that seem to be able to predict the broad market, and not only on a daily basis, but rather on longer time periods, but partly the indices also drag behind:
๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ฝ๐๐๐๐รค๐๐๐:
According to the skirts length theory (George W. Taylor), with economic success, the length of women's skirts decreases on average, with decreasing numbers, skirts become longer again. However, this effect should always be about 3 years behind the current market.
๐ฟ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐:
The fashion world of men, however, also seems to react to the economy, so the sales of ties increase in rather bad economic times to put on a neater appearance and best not to be considered in layoffs.
4. ๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐๐ค๐จ๐๐ฃ๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ ๐ช๐ก๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ฃ?
Theory:
If sales of expensive men's underpants drop, a recession is on the way. Since the economy does not change from one day to the next, people notice these changes subconsciously. For men, a worse financial situation in the future is expressed by savings on underwear, with good pay with prospects of even better payments, in turn, the sales of expensive men's underpants increase, because they can deal with their money more carefree.
As an example I take Australia:
In the article it is described that in the beginning of 2020 the sales number of underpants fell sharply, later the market for underpants as well as for shares recovered.
With this example (mainly examples are made about the financial crisis 2008) one thing can be explained quite well:
No matter how much you understand about market timing/newstrading, no matter how much information you have at your disposal, something can always come up that you just can't plan for. There is a reason why short-term speculators, including professionals without insider knowledge usually fail to forecast correctly. (here the indicator also ran behind the stock markets).
In the article I used for research an example is given, but also when looking at neobroker warning lights should light up, if with financial products a number of failed people is sent ahead as a warning.
I thank you cordially for reading, by the not provision of Internet I can unfortunately not use many sources, I have tried with my examples nevertheless to explain everything reasonably well, who thinks now: Newstrading, that works but, you tell here only nonsense, which is said I speak of the rule, not of the exception.
In addition, a post is in planning, which shows a concrete possibility, as a private investor sometimes faster than the Profinewstrader can be, I have even eien use case.
So look forward to more content and please forgive me that this post does not have so many source documents.
