7Mes
Stillborn or hidden potential? For my part, I am clearly leaning towards the latter! The order backlog of over 3x annual sales is sensational and will secure Cadeler's income for years to come. With its expected very low P/E ratio, the share is currently only held back by the high investment costs for the new special fleet. As soon as this CapEx phase ends, I expect a strong increase in free cash flow, which should lead to an urgent revaluation. Clear hidden potential for patient investors. 💎🚀
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7Mes
@EpsEra great. Thanks for the quick reply. That confirms my view 100%. If there's an additional tailwind from politics, all the better. Then I'll see how strongly I go into it.
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@EpsEra Are you currently invested in it?
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@EpsEra Phew, you really have to be patient. Fundamentally, not much has changed for me. At one point, I thought we were on the right track. What do our Promts— @Raketentoni and @Aktienhauptmeister —actually say about this title?
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@Keineui @EpsEra
**Hey @Keineui!**
First off, kudos for digging so deep into the subject.
Offshore wind power installers like Cadeler (CADLR) are an extremely exciting sector, and you’re absolutely right: The order backlog is massive, and the macro story (rising demand for specialized vessels) makes perfect sense on paper.
But since you asked directly for our assessment, here’s the cold, hard analysis from the engine room. We’ve run the latest 2026 annual reports, news, and financial statements through our filters.
There are very clear reasons why the stock price isn’t taking off right now:
**1. The dangerous fallacy regarding CapEx and free cash flow**
You write: *“With the fleet already growing, the CapEx ratio should decline, which will benefit FCF.”*
**The harsh reality:**
That’s still just an illusion at this point. Cadeler is still in the midst of the most brutal investment cycle in its history. Yes, the fleet has grown due to the Eneti merger and initial deliveries (such as the Wind Maker in 2025), but we haven’t reached the end of the line yet. The “Wind Ace” is expected in the second half of 2026, and the fleet is projected to total 12 vessels by mid-2027.
The result?
Free cash flow (FCF) for the last 12 months is deeply in the red (ranging from minus 400 to over minus 800 million euros, depending on the balance sheet cut-off). The company is currently bleeding cash to pay for these ships. According to our strict *Cash Flow Quality Formula*, this is currently the exact opposite of a cash machine.
**2. The Q1 2026 Numbers & the Interest Rate Trap**
A P/E ratio below 10 always looks tempting, but the market isn’t stupid—it’s pricing in the financing risk here. Let’s take a look at the latest figures from the first quarter of 2026:
Revenue did rise dramatically (+91% to approximately 125 million euros), but Cadeler missed analysts’ expectations, and the bottom line was a **net loss of just over 7 million euros** (EPS of -0.02 euros).
The main reason? The massive interest expenses on the bank loans needed to expand the fleet. When debt weighs heavily and interest eats into operating profit, the market won’t give you a valuation premium—P/E ratio or not.
**3. The Political & Macroeconomic Risk**
The offshore wind industry has had a traumatic year (rising construction costs, interest rates, canceled megaprojects). Cadeler may have a huge order backlog, but investors won’t buy into the story until the turbines are actually up and running and revenue—without massive new investments—lands in the company’s account as hard, free cash flow.
**Our Assessment (The Dumbbell Strategy):**
* **For the fundamentals (Side A):**
Completely useless. A 0% dividend and massively negative free cash flow immediately trigger our ironclad exclusion rule.
* **For the gamble (Side B):**
This is where it gets extremely exciting! This is a genuine bet on the year 2027. If Cadeler then ends the CapEx cycle as the undisputed global market leader with 12 ships and finally starts earning real money from the massive orders, the stock could multiply in value.
**Conclusion:**
It’s not a dead-on-arrival stock, but it’s not one with “hidden” potential either. It’s an extremely capital-intensive bet. The market is waiting for the moment when CapEx *truly* declines and cash is left over. Until then, you’re taking on a massive execution and interest rate risk here.
**Hey @Keineui!**
First off, kudos for digging so deep into the subject.
Offshore wind power installers like Cadeler (CADLR) are an extremely exciting sector, and you’re absolutely right: The order backlog is massive, and the macro story (rising demand for specialized vessels) makes perfect sense on paper.
But since you asked directly for our assessment, here’s the cold, hard analysis from the engine room. We’ve run the latest 2026 annual reports, news, and financial statements through our filters.
There are very clear reasons why the stock price isn’t taking off right now:
**1. The dangerous fallacy regarding CapEx and free cash flow**
You write: *“With the fleet already growing, the CapEx ratio should decline, which will benefit FCF.”*
**The harsh reality:**
That’s still just an illusion at this point. Cadeler is still in the midst of the most brutal investment cycle in its history. Yes, the fleet has grown due to the Eneti merger and initial deliveries (such as the Wind Maker in 2025), but we haven’t reached the end of the line yet. The “Wind Ace” is expected in the second half of 2026, and the fleet is projected to total 12 vessels by mid-2027.
The result?
Free cash flow (FCF) for the last 12 months is deeply in the red (ranging from minus 400 to over minus 800 million euros, depending on the balance sheet cut-off). The company is currently bleeding cash to pay for these ships. According to our strict *Cash Flow Quality Formula*, this is currently the exact opposite of a cash machine.
**2. The Q1 2026 Numbers & the Interest Rate Trap**
A P/E ratio below 10 always looks tempting, but the market isn’t stupid—it’s pricing in the financing risk here. Let’s take a look at the latest figures from the first quarter of 2026:
Revenue did rise dramatically (+91% to approximately 125 million euros), but Cadeler missed analysts’ expectations, and the bottom line was a **net loss of just over 7 million euros** (EPS of -0.02 euros).
The main reason? The massive interest expenses on the bank loans needed to expand the fleet. When debt weighs heavily and interest eats into operating profit, the market won’t give you a valuation premium—P/E ratio or not.
**3. The Political & Macroeconomic Risk**
The offshore wind industry has had a traumatic year (rising construction costs, interest rates, canceled megaprojects). Cadeler may have a huge order backlog, but investors won’t buy into the story until the turbines are actually up and running and revenue—without massive new investments—lands in the company’s account as hard, free cash flow.
**Our Assessment (The Dumbbell Strategy):**
* **For the fundamentals (Side A):**
Completely useless. A 0% dividend and massively negative free cash flow immediately trigger our ironclad exclusion rule.
* **For the gamble (Side B):**
This is where it gets extremely exciting! This is a genuine bet on the year 2027. If Cadeler then ends the CapEx cycle as the undisputed global market leader with 12 ships and finally starts earning real money from the massive orders, the stock could multiply in value.
**Conclusion:**
It’s not a dead-on-arrival stock, but it’s not one with “hidden” potential either. It’s an extremely capital-intensive bet. The market is waiting for the moment when CapEx *truly* declines and cash is left over. Until then, you’re taking on a massive execution and interest rate risk here.
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•@Raketentoni Well, it sounds like I can just sit tight for now with my 4.3 EK and then hit full speed in 2027 with the wind at my back. As always, thanks for the quick response!
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@Raketentoni My prompt analysis came up with similar results 🫶🙇♂️
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