21H·

AI as a great investment opportunity?

We (around 40 people from SW development) trundled into a bar after work last week and wanted to round off the evening in a relaxed atmosphere. Instead of 2 beers, there were of course significantly more and the topic of our operational business was over relatively quickly, in the end of course (once again) we only talked about AI and the discussion hype/sustainability and how each individual can benefit from it (many do without any company insurance, prefer to receive an annual bonus and invest it in the stock market).

In the end (8 beers later) there was relative agreement that it is

a) it is a megatrend with a tailwind (comparable to the internet or smartphones back then)

b) AI will change every industry (and in my opinion very quickly)

c) targeted investments will lead to significant increases in value in 5-10 years.

What has left us all with questions is the impact on the labor market. Entire industries will look completely different in the future; instead of people, there will be robotics and perhaps a handful of people monitoring everything. Where will that lead? Tax systems need to be rethought (loss of jobs = loss of wage tax and social security contributions), the education system needs to be revolutionized and so on. Where are we heading? AI user tax? Digital value-added taxation?

Very exciting with our political leaders and little hope :D

Of course, this is all minimally frightening, but it also offers us all incredible opportunities.

To return to the core issue: I think we all have an opportunity here to build massive wealth. My portfolio is extremely tech-heavy, so I'm still betting on the big players ($NVDA (+0,4%) , $TSM (+0,17%) , $ASML (-1,43%) - entire value chain for chip development), $GOOGL (+1,27%) , $META (-0,65%) . $AMZN (+0,1%) and also a few riskier ones like $PLTR (+0,57%) , $SMCP, $NOW (+0,21%) etc.).

Quantum computing would of course be the next big highlight, but that's another story.

What do you think about it? How will AI shape our generations, what social impact will it have and where are you investing?

LG Max

9 Commenti

TotallyLost@TotallyLost

21H

Who says that tech companies will benefit the most from AI and robotics?
My thesis is that they will cannibalize each other, the good old competition in capitalism will ensure that prices fall and margins too.
The winners could then be those who can ultimately buy the services and products to increase productivity at low prices.

You can already see it with ChatCPT, Gemini and the other gadgets.
Nobody earns money with them except the users who use them to increase their productivity.

So it may well be that boring industrial companies or Auntie Erna's travel agency are the big winners. 😅

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Max@MaxtheCat

21H

@TotallyLost Yes, I also think that everyone will benefit to some extent. Everything we are seeing now is just the beginning - the computing power (in completely different dimensions) is needed and will be needed - those who have huge cash reserves at their disposal can invest. So BigTech and the modern SW companies will benefit, whether through automation, staff savings, etc. - I see the HW before the SW (in my opinion, even the job as SW dev. that has been secure for years will no longer be secure - the really good ones yes, the average, which has prevailed for years due to a lack of alternatives, probably not.

But yes, of course you're right :)

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Charmin@Charmin

19H

If history has taught us anything, it is that there has never been an invention that has made people "useless". People simply do different jobs. The "human computers" of the 1950s became programmers, for example.

AI is already radically changing many markets (think of jobs such as translators, voice-over artists, graphic designers), and the number of applications is increasing rapidly. This will continue until every niche has its own AI application.

We are still in the infancy of AI, comparable to the 4004 (quasi first CPU from Intel; 1971), if you apply this to the computer revolution. Just as it was impossible to imagine back then what computers would make possible, it is difficult to predict today what AI will achieve.

But a few things are clear to me:

1. it will be an ultra-cool and exciting time
2. companies like NVDIA will go completely through the roof - we've seen virtually nothing here yet
3. there will be a massive shakeout of players on the market (in several waves), only the most relevant will survive, most will disappear again as quickly as they arrived

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Max@MaxtheCat

19H

@Charmin I completely agree with you. Only the comparison, i.e. in terms of the need for jobs among the masses, I think there are differences between the PC revolution and the AI revolution - there will be new jobs, but not as many as will be lost.

On point no. 3: Are you thinking of the 90% small caps AI shops?
I looked at your portfolio, large share Nvidia - how come you are not involved in several companies in the value chain? Just out of interest :)

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Charmin@Charmin

19H

@MaxtheCat Because I think NVIDIA is the best of all the companies in this field.

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Stuttgarter81@Moneymoney

21H

Hi Max. AI is definitely a megatrend - the question is just how far it has already been priced in. At the beginning of a megatrend there is often a hype that ends in a bear market - the question is where are we now? Are today's winners also tomorrow's winners? In my view, the markets are not favorable. The hype of 2000 is not yet here, but many people in my circle have already entered the market who were not interested in the stock market before - that's why my cash share is relatively high at almost 50 percent - after all, you get an average of 3.5 percent p.a. for a good, almost risk-free bond share. I wish you continued success 🍀👍🏻

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Max@MaxtheCat

20H

@Moneymoney Hi :) Absolutely correct. But I still tend to think that many people are not even aware of where the whole thing can and will go (if you discuss AI with the masses, you get ChatGPT as an answer, where a large part doesn't even understand the prompts). In the short term, a lot is certainly priced in, but in the medium term (10-15 years) I assume that this will increase massively. And the setbacks should be used to reduce the cash component :D

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Hugo@hugosilva77

13H

After so many beers someone was still sober to remember the conclusions? lol

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Max@MaxtheCat

13H

@hugosilva77 we are living in Austria, this is called breakfast

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