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Hello my dears,

Unfortunately, the Almonthy share has $AII (-4,74%) has run away from me.


As a result, I have become more and more involved with Deutsche Rohstoff through the Almonthy investment $DR0 (+3,76%) .


And recently the esteemed Mr. Prompt @Raketentoni also made a short analysis.

As the esteemed @Dividendenopi rightly added. Mr. Prompt had simply omitted the 11.3% Almonthy stake.


This fact made me do the math today.


And with the help of Mr. Prompt's brother, I had the whole thing broken down a little.


🟦 Value of the Almonty shareholding

Deutsche Rohstoff AG holds 11,3 % in Almonty Industries. The value of this investment is estimated differently in various analyses - depending on the respective point in time and share price level.


🟩 Value of Deutsche Rohstoff AG (DRAG)

🔹 Market capitalization

DRAG is currently valued at approx. € 420.13 million valued.


  • DRAG is traditionally strong in the oil and gas business (US onshore).
  • The Almonty investment is a strategic strategic jokerwhich could increase significantly in value if the Sangdong mine successfully starts production.
  • At the same time, DRAG is relatively stable thanks to hedging and cash flows from the O&G segment.



🟩 Value of Almonthy Industries (ALM)

🔹 Market capitalization

Almonthy is currently valued at approx. € 4.23 billion valued


🔹 Why the spread is so wide

  • Almonty has multiplied significantly over the course of the year.
  • The Sangdong mine in South Korea is considered extremely important strategically, as it is intended to make Western customers less dependent on China.
  • The planned Nasdaq listing also increases the valuation opportunities.



📌 1. initial data

Market capitalization Almonty

  • According to current financial data, the market cap is USD 6.26 billion

  • Converted (USD 1 ≈ € 0.68), this equates to approx. 4.25 billion € → This corresponds to your figure of 4.23 billion €.

Participation of Deutsche Rohstoff AG

  • DRAG holds 11,3 % in Almonty.

Market capitalization of Deutsche Rohstoff AG

  • According to your open Onvista tab: € 420.13 million




📌 2nd value of the DRAG stake in Almonty

Value of the investment=€4.23 billion×0.113

=€478.0 million

👉 DRAG's stake in Almonty is therefore worth around €478 million.


📌 3. comparison with the market capitalization of DRAG

  • DRAG market capitalization: € 420 million
  • Value of the Almonty investment: € 478 million

This means:

The Almonty investment alone is worth more than DRAG as a whole.

Specifically:

€478 million€420 million≈1.14

👉 The stake corresponds to 114% of the total DRAG valuation.


📌 4 What this implies

  • The market is currently valuing DRAG as if its oil and gas business + cash + other investments together are worth less than € 0.
  • This is a classic "sum-of-the-parts mismatch".
  • If Almonty continues to rise or the Sangdong mine successfully goes into production, this effect will become even stronger.



📌 5 What you can deduce from this

  • DRAG is currently massively below the value of its individual parts valued.
  • The market is obviously pricing it in:
  • high uncertainty at Almonty,
  • possible dilution,
  • or conservative valuation of the O&G segment.


The core is quickly stated: If Almonty is really already worth around €4.23 billion, then the DRAG stake is mathematically worth around €478 million - i.e. more than the entire Deutsche Rohstoff AG currently costs on the stock exchange.


My dears,

Due to the large oil and gas business and the high reserves, and the Almonthy stake, I personally see Deutsch. Rohstoff $DR0 (+3,76%) as a TOP pick.


P/E RATIO 12.22

Dividend yield 2.49


Am I missing something here, or what is your opinion?


Let's discuss in the comments.

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@SAUgut777
@Dividendenopi
@Multibagger
@Klein-Anleger
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin
@topicswithhead and everyone else.

20
13 Commenti

immagine del profilo
I don't want to talk about $DR0. I sold it in 2024 at €33 🤡
6
immagine del profilo
@Dirty30 but still see good upside potential. And another time to buy
1
immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 I'm not even sure why I sold back then. It's always interesting, you're right.
1
immagine del profilo
@Dirty30 I feel for you. I sold $DRO at 0.5 cents. 2000 STK.
2
immagine del profilo
@Emdy oha bitter 🥴
immagine del profilo
Neither the one nor the other 😉🤷‍♀️Mit $AII have already made two nice trades, unfortunately always out too early, regardless, my TP target of 40% was reached both times. And Deutsch Rohstoff now simply pays too little dividend for my requirements. Could work out well, but I would wait for Almonty's figures next Thursday.
2
immagine del profilo
No additions from my side (share the assessment of @topicswithhead) to a large extent.🤷🏼‍♂️😉

$DR0 is either deep value or mercilessly overhyped tungsten proxy. Valuation-wise, I'm completely with you.

The questions are: Does the stock ever trade "priced in" with the holding? Or do they try to cash out all or part of the stake at some point, inevitably causing the $AII share price to implode?

In my view, neither is possible. Top or flop, both possible. Something is priced in, either the oil stocks or the shareholding.😅🤷🏼‍♂️
2
immagine del profilo
No, but this is not unusual. First of all, shares are almost always valued at a discount, usually 50%. That means 200 million upside potential. But there can be a number of reasons why the market completely ignores the investment. Small cap, too little attention or education, etc. But this is not unusual. Deutsche Telekom also trades on the US share. Exor trades on the Ferrari plus a bit of cash, etc. You just have to know what is the case here. If it is small cap then it can be good. If the market doesn't care or has concerns, then it's no good
1
immagine del profilo
@topicswithhead However, I do not yet see the large oil and gas reserves as priced into the share price. I also see Almonthy's market capitalization continuing to rise.
immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 then go in. But don't forget that this is small cap. In America, 5 billion is also small cap and 400 million is nano. That's why many institutions won't go into the stock. Apart from that, I don't know the situation here. Maybe there are concerns, you know the stock better. But if you don't see anything, go in. I also have value plays. HHH, Exor, DTE are so interesting for me precisely because of the discount
2
immagine del profilo
So we both talked about $DR0 once at around €46 and unfortunately it has really run away from me since then, so no more buying at the moment.
1
immagine del profilo
An oil price of around 70 dollars is already enough to noticeably increase EBITDA, free cash flow and the value of reserves.
immagine del profilo
@Smudeo I see it similarly, I think the next quarterly figures should surprise
1
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