6G·

Fear of regulation causes home loan appraisers to plummet

$FICO (-0,16%)

My dears, politicians are once again dictating the price of a share.

Is this a buying opportunity for you, or rather a reason to flee the stock?

@Simpson


The share price of the rating company Fair Isaac has plummeted. The trigger should also make the rest of the US real estate sector sit up and take notice.


In simple terms, the rating company Fair Isaac (Fico) is the Schufa of the American real estate market. If Americans want a home loan from their bank, their Fico rating determines whether they get it. This prominent position was Fair Isaac's undoing on Wednesday: the company's share price plummeted by 15.74 percent. The worst daily performance in the broad S&P 500 index. What happened?


Owning your own home is an integral part of the American dream, which is why US politicians are keeping an eagle eye on the real estate market. According to the US Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), demand for loans slumped by 5.1 percent last week compared to the previous week. Chief economist Mike Fratantoni blamed this on the high interest rates on home loans.


For Bill Pulte, Director of the US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the development must have struck a nerve. The head of the agency first vented his anger at an MBA event and then on Platform X: "After the hard work of many great senators, including Senator Tim Scott, I am extremely disappointed with Fico's cost increases for American consumers." Fair Isaac's share price subsequently plummeted.


According to reports, Pulte was particularly upset by the credit rating agency's decision in November. At that time, Fair Isaac had raised the fee for granting mortgage loans from 3.50 dollars to 4.95 dollars. An increase of more than 40 percent.


The head of the authority also indicated that he wants to resume the FHFA's efforts to change the regulation of credit ratings. Since 2022, the authority has been planning to adjust the rules for homebuilders so that they only have to provide two credit ratings instead of three. This plan is viewed critically in the real estate industry as it is considered less meaningful. For Fair Isaac, on the other hand, it could mean a cut in fee revenue.


But why are investors so sensitive to the statements of a head of authority? One reason could be that this is not the first time that politicians have explicitly blamed Fico for the situation on the US real estate market. In a letter to the US Department of Justice in June last year, Republican Senator Josh Hawley accused Fico of using his dominant market position to drive up prices and called for the antitrust authorities to intervene.


https://www.wiwo.de/finanzen/boerse/us-immobilienmarkt-regulierungsangst-laesst-hauskredit-bewerter-abstuerzen/100130065.html

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15 Commenti

immagine del profilo
I find the situation very complicated, don't know if I should kick the stock out of the wikifolio or not. In itself I don't think FICO will be greatly affected as the score is simply too important, but the whole thing is a bad omen for the sector and could make scaling more difficult in the long term, which will probably halve the multiple.
3
immagine del profilo
@TaxesAreTheft
I once read that FICO has expanded and offers its services internationally. Like in Asia, for example. That's why I'm actually convinced in the long term. But FICO also has the software and the data analysis in the USA, so there is hardly any alternative to FICO. So it's almost a monopoly.
The question is who has the upper hand here, because politicians are also dependent on FICO.
And the question is whether this is just another politician trying to make himself important.
And in the end there will be nothing left but hot air.
immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 So as I said, FICO will definitely continue, the problem I see is that growth could be massively restricted by a significant intervention in the real estate and scoring sector. With FICO's high multiple, this would inevitably lead to a strong compression of the multiple. The risk of losing 20-30% in one fell swoop is simply too high for me. I have to and want to adhere to the guidelines I have listed in the wikifolio, which is why I have decided to sell.
1
immagine del profilo
Learned something new today. Thank you 🙏
2
immagine del profilo
Is still sporty rated, I hope it continues to go down!!!
2
immagine del profilo
Am down 23% 🤔 Will continue to run savings plans for now
1
immagine del profilo
@Simpson
Really sad, FICO has been a great compounder for years. It can't all be over from one day to the next.
I think the storm should also pass.
3
@Simpson the second bigger one after UNH that bangs it down 🙈 didn't think the long runner would come down like this 🙈
2
immagine del profilo
@Patschke6686 As you can see, anything is possible on the stock market 😂 I wouldn't have thought that UNH would go down so brutally 😂
3
@Simpson Maybe a good opportunity to buy at FICO soon 😜
immagine del profilo
@Patschke6686
FICO's good business model will not disappear. And it will remain good.
You can search for it for a long time
1
@Tenbagger2024 That's exactly how I see it too. Wait and see and take a look 😉
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immagine del profilo
I told you to get rid of it, it is simply valued far too highly
immagine del profilo
@topicswithhead
Well, that's probably more down to the news now.
1
immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 may be nevertheless in the end minus 30% ytd
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