It's all just "would" would have", "would have", bicycle chain... I just BET and HOPE that there will finally be another big crash, like last year with the Trump customs crash !!! So that I can finally reallocate my low-risk bond holdings, which have been rebuilt since then, into extremely cheap world ETFs, which will then take off like Schmidt's cat - with +30-50% instead of just +8-10% p.a. !!!! :-)
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@AlexBloch Hope is pretty much the worst companion on the stock market.🤷🏼♂️
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I don't care, I had a similarly good return last year with the Trump crash as I did in 2024 without it. You can make money in every market phase. And there will always be stocks that perform well and stocks that perform poorly. Stock picking must also be able to offer advantages over broadly diversified investments. In the current phase, you just have to be more flexible.
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•@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin The point is not to hope that there will be a crash - but that there will be the next one SOON! Because the next cash is ALWAYS coming - it's just a question of when. And since nobody in the whole world can predict that, all that remains is hope - with a concrete plan as to what exactly you will do as an investor when the time comes!
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•@Multibagger Do you realize that passive investors cannot lose? Because they ALWAYS achieve the average market return on long-term investments...
That leaves the active investors. Whereby the following applies: some can only make profits if the others lose this profit money at the same time.
And now please tell me why you, of all people, see yourself on the winning side, i.e. above the average return achieved by passive investors... ;-)
(By the way, this is called "over-self-confidence bias"...)
That leaves the active investors. Whereby the following applies: some can only make profits if the others lose this profit money at the same time.
And now please tell me why you, of all people, see yourself on the winning side, i.e. above the average return achieved by passive investors... ;-)
(By the way, this is called "over-self-confidence bias"...)
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•@AlexBloch And what happens if the average market return is negative? (It is said to have already happened) Do passive investors still make a profit? Let me put it this way, I would bet that I will clearly beat the average market return in 9 out of 10 years. Of course with a significantly higher risk! But that wasn't the question! Let me give you an example. I am YTD at +16%TTWROR! If I were to sell everything now and keep my feet still for the rest of the year (which of course I won't do, as 16% is too little for me to continue my project successfully) I would very probably be above the average market return.
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@AlexBloch I'm well aware of this, and not just since yesterday.😉
But:
1. that's not what your comment implied.
2. you are trying market timing, which is empirically proven not to work or not to work permanently.
Statistically speaking, the best time to "bring your entire investment to market" is right now.🤷🏼♂️.
But have fun waiting.😊✌🏻
But:
1. that's not what your comment implied.
2. you are trying market timing, which is empirically proven not to work or not to work permanently.
Statistically speaking, the best time to "bring your entire investment to market" is right now.🤷🏼♂️.
But have fun waiting.😊✌🏻
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@Multibagger The average market return over any 10-year period in the last 100 years has never been negative! This also makes no sense because it would mean that the global economy would have made losses for 10 years in total. How is that supposed to work?
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•@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin No, I don't do any market timing at all. I would do that if I were trying to predict a crash and sell in good time beforehand. Timing is therefore an estimation... I don't estimate anything at all, but simply wait until a world index such as the MSCI ACWI IMI falls by at least 20% in a crash. Anyone can see that on the chart, without any forecasts! And it's all over the media. Nobody misses it, like the financial crisis in 2007 or the Trunp crash last year...
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@AlexBloch I am not talking about 10 years, but about annual returns. I think the 8-10% is realistic as a market return 40-50% over 10 years is my target. The average market return will never achieve that. Whether I can achieve that remains to be seen.
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@Multibagger You want to achieve 40-50% returns every year for 10 years over the entire portfolio, including price losses and loss sales? No way... Unless you count yourself among the 1% of pot investors who analyze company data all day long and end up being very lucky...
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