Bitcoin cycle: Daily analysis of the most important indicators with Google Trends for @stefan_21
Status: July 18, 2025
1. bitcoin dominance (BTC.D)
- Value: 61.6%. Dominance has fallen significantly from the local high (65% on June 27). The development indicates an increased rotation of capital towards altcoins; Ethereum (10.9%) and "Others" (27.6%) are gaining market share.
- Assessment: The signal points to an incipient altcoin season, but Bitcoin remains the market leader.
2. liquidity & M2's 100-day lag effect
- Global M2: Around USD 93.7 trillion (July 2025), with 7.45% year-on-year growth. US M2 is also at a record high of USD 21.94 trillion.
- Market significance: Growing money supply continues to support the trend towards risk assets.
- Valuation: Continuing supportive liquidity, no visible plateau.
3. altcoin market/alt-season indicators
- Altcoin Season Index: Climbed from 11 to 27 in July and shows growing altcoin activity, but not yet a classic altcoin season.
- Market capitalization: Capital is flowing noticeably into altcoins, with Solana, Cardano and XRP in particular recording strong gains in the last 24 hours.
- Valuation: Early phase of a possible alt season, but no broad outperformance so far.
4th Coinbase app ranking
- Ranking: Coinbase continues to rise, currently ranked 137th in the US app charts (after 386th in June). Previous blow-off tops were usually only achieved with placements in the top 10 to top 1.
- Assessment: Clearly growing retail interest, but no FOMO extreme phase yet.
5 Relative Strength Index (RSI, Bitcoin)
- RSI (daily): Above 70 (as of July 18); this signals a short-term overheated market. Several technical reversal signals point to a possible correction in the near future.
- Assessment: Caution, overheating signals are accumulating.
6 Google Trends (search interest "Bitcoin")
- Index: Google Trends for "Bitcoin" remains moderate at around 30, far below the peaks of past cycles. Even after new all-time highs, there are no signs of massive retail FOMO.
- Valuation: Retail euphoria remains low compared to price momentum.
7 ETF inflows & institutional demand
- Performance: Bitcoin ETFs continue to see unprecedented inflows - over USD 4bn in July, with several days over USD 1bn. Institutional interest remains strong; BlackRock ETF dominates with 83bn AUM.
- Rating: No top signal, high professional demand pressure.
8. on-chain data & whale activity
- Observations: Whale inflows to exchanges have recently increased significantly (by USD 1.5bn); large holders have distributed approx. 36,000 BTC in the last 8 days. In addition, there have been conspicuous transfers from dormant wallets (e.g. 40,000 BTC from 2011 address), which may cause short-term volatility.
- Assessment: Increasing distribution of large addresses calls for caution, but is not a classic blow-off top.
9. price & trend
- Current price: approx. USD 118,600. After all-time high at $122,800 there is consolidation and increased volatility.
- Assessment: Trend remains upward, short-term corrections possible.
Summary of indicators (July 18, 2025)
Conclusion
- The bull market remains fundamentally intact: Liquidity, ETF inflows and on-chain activity support the medium-term uptrend.
- Clear early warning signal: declining Bitcoin dominance, strong altcoin gains and an overheated daily RSI (>70) increase the risk of a correction in the short term.
- Retail euphoria remains manageable (App/Google Trends), which suggests that the final phase is not yet exhausted.
