Whats next

stock_virtuoso_1968 · 2025-05-22T04:32:49.805864Z

$ABR Good morning How do you think things are going here?

Pope Donkey XXI@DonkeyInvestor

2Settimana

Definitely goes to 0 👍

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Erdbeermaus@Lumimyrsky

2Settimana

@DonkeyInvestor 0 👎

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M_T1401@M_T1

2Settimana

@DonkeyInvestor why should it go to 0?

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Pope Donkey XXI@DonkeyInvestor

2Settimana

@M_T1 because everything goes to 0 at some point 👍

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Ata@Atacama

2Settimana

@DonkeyInvestor "because everything goes to 0 at some point" ... Yes, so you don't invest in anything because everything will eventually go to 0? Or what is your strategy?

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Pope Donkey XXI@DonkeyInvestor

2Settimana

@Atacama I didn't say that. You just have to make sure you get out before everything goes to 0 👍

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Ata@Atacama

2Settimana

Hmmm ... What do you base that on?
If I understand correctly, $ABR essentially lends money to the US real estate sector. Of course, if it stagnates there, then Arbor's business stagnates too.
When I try to research the US real estate market, I get an expected growth of 3% p.a. until 2029. Shouldn't that also strengthen ABR's results? The stumbling block, however, is rising real estate prices, which fewer private households and institutions can afford. This makes for a difficult market environment for ABR. If the USA is heading for a recession, things will remain difficult. Otherwise, it should recover in the medium term, shouldn't it? And if there is a recession in the USA, then in my opinion not only ABR will have a problem...
Conclusion for me: I remain invested. Admittedly, it's only a small position for me. If I had a large position, I would perhaps also look for a better investment...

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Wout@HooiFork

1Settimana

@Atacama My limited knowledge/research combination came up to high rates mean less spread, and more defaults, which generates no income. Meanwhile they take on real estate from defaults which they hope to sell later. I bought some extra but might be risky. Combined it with a bdc buy though in case rates don't get cut. We will see what happens. They talked about hopefully raising dividends back up from 2026 so potentially huge yield which outperforms any paper wins from s&p and even chance for share appreciation. Seems to hard punished if u ask me.

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Ata@Atacama

1Settimana

@HooiFork Hi, I'm optimistic too, si I'll stay invested. It often simply depends on the time frame and the personal targets. I'm alway looking for good dividends - but there are so many interesting papers to invest in ;-) Let's hope for the best 👍

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