3Settimana·

My investment thesis from Duolingo in a chart

19 Commenti

3Settimana

I am learning languages myself and have already tried $DUOL extensively and can say that it is really bad for real language learning.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

3Settimana

@Shrimpman maybe, but 48 million daily users (vs. 21 million 2 years ago) speak a different language

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Null@Frei

3Settimana

@Shrimpman What is your recommendation for learning languages?

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MrMister@MrMister

3Settimana

@Shrimpman most people use it for language categorization when applying abroad. B2 at Duolingo actually means A1 level in real life. Especially in English and German.

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Shrimpman@Shrimpman

3Settimana

@Frei My "workflow" looks like this:
Watch Youtube videos in the target language (e.g. French - easy French). Then put unknown words in Anki (flashcard app) (preferably in a sentence) or in Obsidian (notes app) (I do both, with Obsidian I just link the words) and then write a bit with chatgbt in the language or have stories created at your level (you can then also have them read aloud by other Ki services for pronunciation). I also have tandem partners who speak my target language and want to learn German for exchange, culturally and to make sure that what I learn doesn't sound too much like a textbook (textbooks are actually quite good sometimes too)

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Shrimpman@Shrimpman

3Settimana

@MrMister Is this officially recognized? 😂

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Malte@Malte123

3Settimana

@Shrimpman was my impression too. I found Bubble much better if you want to go beyond "I'm eating an apple".

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

3Settimana

@Malte123 It may well be that Babbel is better for some people. However, Duolingo has >11x as many app downloads globally as Babbel. Duolingo is the contested number 1 with 7x as many app downloads as number 2.

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MrMister@MrMister

3Settimana

@Shrimpman Yes and no. It is a criterion, but I often notice that people with Duo often have problems expressing themselves correctly in German, English, Dutch or even Spanish.

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ClaraLvt@ClaraLvt

3Settimana

I just won’t buy the stock because it’s a horrible app to learn a language and has no real moat. Could get easily replaced

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

3Settimana

@ClaraLvt 48m daily active users disagree with you, incl. around 10m people who have used the app daily for at least a year or longer. If you claim that Duolingo has no moat, then you clearly have not done your research on the company. Plus, who is gonna replace Duolingo and why has no one replaced it if it can be easily done?

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ClaraLvt@ClaraLvt

3Settimana

@thewolfofallstreetz but the market agrees with me ;)

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ClaraLvt@ClaraLvt

3Settimana

@thewolfofallstreetz and there is a huge “boycott” against Duolingo. Their social media have lost followers for 2/3 months

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

3Settimana

@ClaraLvt I like it. It creates noise and opportunities for long-term investors.

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ClaraLvt@ClaraLvt

3Settimana

@thewolfofallstreetz losing your social media (a huge part of their marketing) following is good?

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

3Settimana

@ClaraLvt Yeah, because the impact is short term and not structural. Gives you a chance to pick up the stock for cheaper.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

3Settimana

@ClaraLvt Also, imagine: they grew revenue 42% YoY with bad sentiment and declining followers according to you. Imagine what happens to growth when this would not have been the case.

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ClaraLvt@ClaraLvt

3Settimana

@thewolfofallstreetz but the numbers are here and they don’t lie. Losing almost 100k followers for 2 months in a row is not good, getting your image back isn’t easy and even after the good earnings the share price now dropped by a lot

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

3Settimana

@ClaraLvt I would not focus too much on the share price, rather focus on the fundamentals of the business - and those have never been stronger. Consumer backlash on social media is a very relevant factor and investors should keep an eye on it. However, management said that this was mainly limited to the US and younger audiences and that the effect is now in the past. In the second half of 2025 and early 2026 their social media will become more edgy again and thus increase likelihood of viral moments. I have no reason not to trust these words from management. But yeah, they could be lying. Investing is not without risk. Never has been, never will. That is where the alpha is.

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