1G·

Head vs. Gut Challenge! The End!

For anyone interested, here is the monthly update as of September 30. I’ll be wrapping up this project at the end of this month. My conclusions follow at the end.

For comparison, I’m including the change from Month 1.

Start. Current Change € %

879.36. 888.04 + 8.68

Total performance + 0.98%

for @Epi

942.60 955.15 +12.55

Total performance +1.33% for @Krush82

1,000 1,423.42 +423.42

Total performance: 42.3% for Multibagger

Conclusion:

The strategies of my two competitors are also subject to significant fluctuations. However, they are much more sophisticated and thoroughly tested than my gut-feel strategy. In contrast to @Krush82 I did exactly the opposite and focused solely on small-caps in this challenge. To be fair, I refrained from using derivatives.

What struck me is that @Krush82 the Wikifolio I chose as my opponent—which focuses exclusively on two momentum stocks at a time—has suffered above-average losses in a weaker overall market, contrary to my expectations. I would have thought that stocks with positive momentum would be more resilient.

As for @Epi I have to say that, certainly due to leverage, he sometimes lacks the ability to swap out stocks even within the same month. I’d be interested to know if you’ve ever tested time frames shorter than a month in any of your backtests?

That brings us to the multibagger. My strategy in this challenge is about as far from scientific as Earth is from Mars. So the 42% is pure luck. No, there’s definitely work and time that went into it. Luck is more about those few really great trades where I timed the entry and exit pretty much perfectly. I executed a total of 44 trades. But—and this is, of course, also part of the truth—the majority of my trades ended up in the red and were closed out after a relatively short time with small losses. However, the trades that did play out were, in some cases, outstanding.

So, I wish my two challengers continued success. I’ll keep following along. Over the past few weeks, I’ve reduced the number of positions in my portfolio by about a third. I’ll be holding onto the positions most recently held in the challenge portfolio for the long term.

For those who are interested, here’s the breakdown:

$CAI (+0,4%)
$2GB (+4,69%)
$NEOV (+0,44%)
$IQMX (+2,95%)

Well, now I wish you all a good night!

Your Multibagger

Chris

12 Commenti

Epi@Epi

Hi, my dear Multi-Belly Challenger, it’s a shame you’re ending the comparison after just a few months—which don’t really tell us much. I would have really liked to see how your intuitive approach compares to my systematic one over the long term, so you wouldn’t have to say, “It was probably just a coincidence.” Because I don’t really believe that’s the case...

•

Chris@Multibagger

@Epi I’m keeping the separate portfolio running. That’s no problem with Flatex. That way, I can still compare it. In the current phase, it’s quite difficult—and above all, time-consuming—to keep finding new small-caps with quick short-term potential. So I’ve now settled on four stocks that I believe have the potential to at least double in value over the medium term, and I’m going to let them run for now. They’re still a far cry from your models and well outside the mainstream. So it’s still exciting.

•

Krush82@Krush82

Too bad... really too bad... As @Epi already pointed out, the time period in question isn't meaningful. You also happened to catch the month of July on my end, when there was a “small but significant” correction. That happens time and again when you consider that we were already up over 100% YTD. That covers the topic of above-average losses and resilience.

•

Epi@Epi

@Krush82 It's not just about having a good strategy; it's also about sticking with it over the long term.

•

Chris@Multibagger

@Krush82 Of course, it always depends a bit on the time frame you’re looking at. I wasn’t at all concerned with who has the best strategy. My main goal was to find out whether I could achieve my goals with less effort by simply investing in your wikis. At least this time frame didn’t show that to be the case. We don’t know how all of this will play out over a longer period. I’ll keep tracking it and will be happy to keep you updated. I just won’t call it a “challenge” anymore.😉😂

•

Krush82@Krush82

@Multibagger If you'd told us your goals beforehand, we could have told you whether you should give it a try or not ;-)

•

Chris@Multibagger

@Krush82 My goals here are actually well-known and have been sufficiently labeled as unachievable. 😉 I’d like to turn €3,000 into €100k in 10 years without making any major additional deposits. To do that, I need an annual return after expenses of about 45%. I’m willing to take on a high level of risk for this and could even live with a total loss—though that would only happen now if there were a war or the entire global economic system collapsed. I started in April 2023. Right now, I’m at around 16k.

•

Krush82@Krush82

@Multibagger The initial goal is the same as mine. At least as far as the annual return is concerned. I also think that's achievable—but you have to stick with it for 5–10 years; drawing conclusions before then would be suboptimal.

•

Epi@Epi

@Multibagger Have you actually compared other time periods as well? 1M, 6M, YTD, 1Y, 2Y?
Every strategy performs differently. Some perform exceptionally well right when others are floundering. 3xGTAA had an extreme run and then entered a consolidation phase—just as you started the comparison. Of course, the results aren’t meaningful under those circumstances.
But I think this is another case where logic and gut instinct clash. Logic says: The comparison is insufficient. Gut instinct says: The comparison is sufficient. 😅

•

Chris@Multibagger

23H

@Epi I know that, and I still believe that with a strategy as risky as mine, you can use your Wiki as a stabilizing anchor. It moves in the opposite direction of my challenge portion 80% of the time over the period under review.
Over longer periods that I can see (no backtesting), you’ve had no chance up to the present time, since my performance in 2024 and 2025 was outstanding and is unlikely to be repeated.

•

SGP@Koenigmidas

I also ran them both against each other once—Krush came in at 8.4% since purchase, and Epi at 1.59%.

•

DEW_7240@DEW_7240

23H

Over the past few days, I've been conducting backtests with mid-month evaluation and portfolio rebalancing, based on a strategy modeled after Faber's GTAA.
For the (theoretical) strategy I ultimately arrived at through adjustments and testing, it became apparent that, with leveraged products, a mid-month valuation leads too quickly to a knock-out or portfolio rebalancing.
I should add that I use the 100-day SMA and not the 200-day SMA as in Faber’s GTAA.

However, a mid-month trend check can have a positive impact on performance and maximum drawdown. This depends heavily on the selected ETFs/leveraged products in the investment universe.

•