4Mes·

Space X! What does the multibagger do?

Since I have a lot of followers here, I would like to inform you that, after intensive research, I have decided to cancel my submitted subscription orders as I do not believe in a rocket-like start.

Why?

In general, it is a warning signal when a US company offers its IPO to German private investors via various brokers. For me, this indicates weaker demand from institutional investors than expected.

Furthermore, the placement is probably only oversubscribed by a factor of 2. The last major IPOs, for example $CBRS were oversubscribed by a factor of 8-9. Hyperliquid's prices for the first share are currently around 170$. Assuming an allocation at the upper end of the range, these are very modest profit prospects.

I will therefore be watching from the sidelines for the time being.

24 Commenti

Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

4Mes

I share this 100%!
Will you be investing for the long term?
I think I'll subscribe to a share so that I can tell my grandchildren in 50 years' time, "Boy, I was there" 😂🚀

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Chris@Multibagger

4Mes

@Klein-Anleger That depends on how things go. And if the merger with $TSLA, which I'm 100% sure will happen because it's the only way Musk can become the first trillionaire, comes as a further burden, probably not at all.
Remember that if you subscribe for just one share, you could end up empty-handed if you oversubscribe, as there are no fractional shares.

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GiCi@GiCi

4Mes

@Klein-Anleger "Boy, I was there and ever since I ask myself why I didn't spend that money for a daytrip with my friends!"

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

4Mes

I had already posted somewhere else today, but here for you too from your friend Mr. Prompt

Draw or wait and see?

Very clear verdict: Wait and see!

Don't even try to rush into the battle for the initial allotment (subscription). Although a historically unique 30 % of shares are to be reserved for private investors, demand will pulverize supply worldwide to such an extent that you will probably only receive microscopic allocations when you subscribe - if at all.
Moreover, blindly subscribing to such hype stocks often burns your fingers when the price is artificially shot into the stratosphere in the first second of trading. Let the institutional guys sort out the initial price discovery among themselves on Friday.

Mr. Prompt's forecast: Rise or fall?

You want a forecast? Here's the roadmap of how the spectacle will most likely play out:

Phase 1: The FOMO spike (Friday and early next week): The stock will shoot up with extreme volatility after the start of trading. Why? On the one hand, the pure "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO) of private investors strikes. On the other hand, index funds (ETFs) are under pressure. With a valuation of USD 1.75 trillion, SpaceX carries enormous weight. Any Nasdaq 100 or MSCI World ETF will have to buy this stock almost immediately to correctly track its index. This forced buying pressure will drive the price massively in the beginning.

Phase 2: The gravity check (after 2 to 4 weeks): Then comes the hangover. SpaceX is an incredible company, but a valuation of USD 1.75 trillion is simply priced for absolute perfection. Analysts (such as Morningstar) actually see the fair fundamental value at more like half that (approx. USD 780 billion). As soon as the first wave of ETF purchases is over and the first insider holding periods approach, the share price is very likely to correct noticeably.

The short AOK filter check
Fundamentally, this is the ultimate rocket for the B-side of your portfolio.

The story:
Starlink is now printing real money (over 10.3 million subscribers in Q1 2026).

The risk: They are still sitting on a short-term bridge loan of USD 20 billion, which according to the prospectus must be repaid within six months of the IPO. The operating margins in the pure rocket launch business are extremely capital-intensive. For the concrete-hard A-fundament, the classic, established cash flow history is completely lacking here.

My conclusion

We will remain completely relaxed on the sidelines on Friday and watch the bloodbath from the outside. No blind market buying on the first day!

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KarlMags@jjjjjonas

4Mes

@Raketentoni Do the ETF companies buy on the first day? I thought I read something about 12 trading days.

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

4Mes

@jjjjjonas "Moin @jjjjjonas,

you're absolutely right and absolutely spot on! Very good eye, thanks for setting the record straight.

I oversimplified it a bit in the euphoria earlier. Here's the exact mechanics of why you're absolutely right with your ~12 days:

No blind ETF buying on day 1: Passive index funds (ETFs) are not allowed to buy until the index provider (like MSCI, S&P or FTSE) officially adds the stock to the index. So on the very first trading day (Friday), not a single passive world ETF buys there yet.

The 'fast track' rule: In the case of a historic mega IPO such as SpaceX, the 'early inclusion' or 'fast entry' rules of the index giants apply. MSCI usually includes such absolute heavyweights after the close of trading on the 10th trading day. So your 12 days is a perfect benchmark! S&P and Nasdaq have similar, sometimes slightly longer periods.

So who drives the price on day 1? The crazy pressure on the first day comes from pure retail FOMO (private investors), active fund managers and especially hedge funds.

The danger (front-running):
Hedge funds buy massively on day 1 because they know full well that the giant ETFs will have to buy completely price blind in just under two weeks to track the index. This makes the first day of trading even more dangerous for us private investors! The big boys simply offload the expensive shares they bought on Friday to the ETFs in 10 to 12 days.

So my conclusion remains all the more valid: Keep your fingers absolutely still on Friday. The real, passive institutional roller will only start rolling later.

Strong point from you, that's exactly what we have the community for!

Greetings, Raketentoni

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KarlMags@jjjjjonas

4Mes

@Raketentoni thanks, you rocket 😜 🚀
Just an addition, as the AI info is slightly misleading: the stock can only end up in the SP500 after at least one year and as far as I know this is only evaluated once a year in spring.

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

4Mes

@jjjjjonas I think he only listed the s&p because it is one of many providers.

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Charmin@Charmin

4Mes

I think that's a *very* wise decision.

I've never seen so much critical coverage before an IPO as with SpaceX. There's open speculation here that they're going after the money of the "small investors" (I'd call them "fanboys"), and the facts support that:

Valuation completely abstruse
Sole reign of Musk
Fast-track listing on the Nasdaq (this forces many market participants to buy SpaceX)
andandand

This is not an investment property, this is a casino. Only in this case, the casino is playing with marked cards. And anyone with 5 cents in their head can see that.

The IPO is a complete farce. That the fanboys don't care - no problem, they can't be helped with facts anyway. I just don't understand why Nasdaq is playing along.

I think I'm too old for this shit ... :-)

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HarryHirsch@harryhirsch11

4Mes

Of course you can rack your brains for days over the strange key figures.
But the only relevant figure in this IPO is: Are there enough fanboys who don't give a shit about figures?

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Metis@Metis

4Mes

I had such thoughts from the outset... You first have to approach private investors when the institutional investors find the thing far too hot.

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TradingHase@TradingHase

4Mes

Welcome next to me on the reserve bench 👍🏼

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Marto@Maddy-0

4Mes

https://youtu.be/mmFyFCbqxpU?is=1RSBbz0QMvEObIAI Found this quite exciting

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capitalist_jzlpf@capitalist_jzlpf

4Mes

Looking at the fundamentals of it, SpaceX either will go belly up in less than 1 year and sold for scraps or will be soon selling new shares to keep financing further operations.

And the fact that this pile of sh*t is going fast into indexes boils me over.

SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPO's will make a lot of money disapear really fast.

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GiCi@GiCi

4Mes

@capitalist_jzlpf I agree. At least, S&P did not bend.

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Enrico M.@EnricoMacias

4Mes

This video explain lots of thing clearly: https://youtu.be/sYA-z0Y8WRQ?is=FYHyYRBnLSGKSeTW

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KarlMags@jjjjjonas

4Mes

I have considered possibly opening a position after a few days and then selling after about two weeks when the buying pressure from institutional investors is there because the share is forcibly included in all ETFs ... but I would only do this with play money because I have far too little knowledge of the intricacies of the stock market.
If anyone reading this can show me why this is a crazy idea, please do!

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Sebastian@Baisse-Jumper

4Mes

In general, you should steer clear of IPOs at first and instead wait to see how the stock performs. History shows that most of the time, you just burn through money at the start—or at least end up in the red in the long run. I don’t get all the hype anyway. Even top-tier companies can have lousy stocks. Why blindly throw your money into something without any track record?

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Alfred E.@Papiertiger

4Mes

As far as I’m concerned: 21 banks and others like TR worldwide are hyping up this IPO and targeting retail investors. That’s a major red flag when the big institutional investors don’t seem too keen on getting ripped off 😂.

And only 2x so far—really weak. The IPO is probably overpriced 😉. (Of course, there are still subscription gains to be had if the irrational masses just buy like crazy on the first day of trading…)

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Chris@Multibagger

4Mes

@Papiertiger There could be a 20–30% increase in the next few days.

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Finanzaristokrat@Finanzaristokrat

4Mes

If the stock starts heading toward €60, that’s when you can start buying. Like Robinhood or Palantir, it’ll go down at first

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Arwid@Arwid

4Mes

Anyone who holds an MSCI World ETF will have them added to their portfolio anyway. Only the S&P 500 is staying cautious and sticking to its tried-and-true approach.

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Chris@Multibagger

4Mes

@Arwid My $JEDI will definitely post it too.

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capitalist_jzlpf@capitalist_jzlpf

4Mes

https://youtu.be/IHD8BDFYyGI?is=erfzLcIOoT-lj02o and https://youtu.be/iOyFja87uyw?is=7xA0tPV6WcdoDHFK

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