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PowerWordChill · 2024-01-26T08:59:30.072161Z

Immer daran denken, die Kapitalkosten der Unternehmen sind eure Rendite! Weniger Kapitalgeber = mehr Eigenkapital je Geldeinheit „Oft wird eine ganze Anlageklasse als "tot" abgeschrieben, obwohl sie nur in der Gosse liegt. Und wenn sie in der Gosse liegt, ist sie billig. John Stepek erklärt, warum es oft sinnvoll ist, Dinge zu kaufen, die die Leute hassen.“ Der Artikel ist zwar schon 3,5 Jahre alt, aber immer noch aktuell: https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/601575/contrarian-investing-hated-asset-class-buy-emerging-markets Ich kauf dann mal weiter China wenn es sonst keiner haben will...

PowerWordChill

@PowerWordChill

11Mes·

Always remember, the company's cost of capital is your return!

Fewer investors = more equity per monetary unit

"Often an entire asset class is written off as "dead" even though it's just in the gutter. And when it's in the gutter, it's cheap. John Stepek explains why it often makes sense to buy things that people hate."

The article may be 3.5 years old, but it's still relevant:

https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/601575/contrarian-investing-hated-asset-class-buy-emerging-markets

I'll keep buying China if nobody else wants it...

26.01

iShares MSCI China ETF

Acquistato a 3,395 €

24 Commenti

ToDaMoon@randomdude

11Mes

You are right in principle, but the mechanisms described only apply to (largely) free markets.

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PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

11Mes

@randomdude @Roman_moed TRUST YOURSELF 😘
When you see such absurd discounts as in China, you will always find reasons why you shouldn't invest there.
Do you think a country like China can escape market forces?
Their cost of capital is exploding! High youth unemployment, consumption has collapsed, deflationary tendencies can be seen. The real estate crisis is not over yet. The banks don't look healthy either. In regulatory terms, the last 3 years have been a disaster, everyone is unsettled.

This is all publicly available information.

Sentiment is so gloomy that long-term investors are considering swapping their EM ETFs for EM ex-China. Institutional investors are debating whether property rights are still sufficiently protected for foreign investors and whether the country is still investable at all.
What else is to come? Expropriation fears are already the superlative from an investor's point of view, there's no way to top that. It reeks of the end of the world!

Of course you have to watch your position size.
BUT
The potential for surprises on the upside is far greater than on the downside.

The position is only 1% of my ETF share, if they fall further I will gladly buy more.

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Roman@Roman_moed

11Mes

@PowerWordChill I don't think the time is right yet. I want to get into a halfway intact uptrend. 5%+ says nothing yet. Once it has gone up by 10-15%, I'll be there

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PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

11Mes

@Roman_moed It looks like we have different strategies.
That was my last purchase at this level.
From now on, I'm only buying at a lower price... should it go down again and with my luck it will. 😅

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Moep@Moep

11Mes

@PowerWordChill 1% share? It sounds like you've gone all in, but at one percent there's not really anything to trust, is there?

And on the actual topic: the political risks are definitely real, which is why you have the discount. But everyone will have a different opinion on the size of the discount. Then some will get out and others, like you, will get back in.

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PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

11Mes

@Moep First of all, 1% is a four-digit amount if you have a six-digit portfolio, secondly, I continue to buy in the event of weakness and thirdly, $ICHN is only the speculative part. In total, my other ETFs add up to 6% (including Taiwan)
My China share can therefore rise to 10-11% at the peak. 😜

And no, the issue is NOT whether the political risks are real. Nobody disputes that. For you as an investor, the question is:
Will things be better or worse in the future than what has been priced in.

If everyone sees their property rights at risk, but this does not materialize, there is plenty of room for upside. 🚀

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ToDaMoon@randomdude

11Mes

@PowerWordChill China as a plausible bet - no one will disagree with you. But I took your original argument as a purely economic one. And that can only be applied to China with very great restrictions.

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ValueWilli@ValueWilli

11Mes

Fuck Marcus! Think of Epictetus! What do you have control over! Over a crazy dictator and arbitrary politics? No Case📉

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PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

11Mes

@ValueWilli You never have control in markets unless you are an entrepreneur, and then only to a limited extent.
The case is that if China wants to play with the big players, it will have to abide by the rules. Whether they want to or not.

I don't mind being wrong, but that's acceptable in the desired market.

In any case, the position has a great entertainment factor for me and that's something. 😄

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ValueWilli@ValueWilli

11Mes

@PowerWordChill Ho Lee Fuk - I keep my hands off😂

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Rico@Ricobuc

11Mes

Well done 👍 I also bought today. The risk/reward ratio is right for China equities. Everything else is at ATH. Clever 🙂

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SpawN@SpawN

11Mes

By the way, I read through your post again and thought about it. I increased my EM ETF savings plan by 30% ... if you remember. 😊

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Roman@Roman_moed

11Mes

With every post you tempt me more ^^

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Enrico@SPRILLY

11Mes

I'm out... it's not profitable enough to save for the long term...👎👎

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PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

11Mes

@SPRILLY We're not talking about long-term savings here either, that's a country bet. 😉

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Enrico@SPRILLY

11Mes

@PowerWordChill okay

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Enrico@SPRILLY

11Mes

@PowerWordChill please explain the ETF A2PGQN to me. Do not get behind it. I don't understand the content of the BET. How long do you hold such an ETF. SORRY

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Enrico@SPRILLY

11Mes

@PowerWordChill Is it only based on growth China 🇨🇳???

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PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

11Mes

@SPRILLY China is very cheap at the moment, and there are good reasons for this.

But I have already described this here:
https://getqu.in/diliTw/

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Enrico@SPRILLY

11Mes

@PowerWordChill ah... now I understand... I haven't been around long... but thanks. 😇😇

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PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

11Mes

@SPRILLY There is no invitation here to join in.
I'm just sharing my thoughts here for the fun of it. 😅

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Enrico@SPRILLY

11Mes

@PowerWordChill I just wanted to find out more. I think everyone has to make their own investment decisions...

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Joris@Joris

11Mes

What do you think of BYD? They have already been well punished. I always thought that when we see e-cars, they are mainly from BYD.
But they are being dragged down in the process.
On the one hand, there could be a good opportunity, but on the other hand, it's China and they're getting money from the government again. So it's fully under control

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PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

11Mes

@Joris Sorry, but I'm not interested in individual stocks...
But as a tip, take a look at whether they are really profitable with their e-cars or whether there aren't a lot of subsidies involved.
I've heard people say that import tariffs in the EU and US are on the cards... but as I said:
... I'm out of individual stocks. 😅

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