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Alfred E.
@Papiertiger
4Mes·

Children's custody account - ETF 2x products as a return booster? Your opinion


The normal savings plan for the child runs with classic Ishares MSCI World & EM with 75%/25% allocation.


Next year there will be a grandiose 5€ more child benefit so I'll take out 25€.


I'm now thinking about adding a small yield booster (of course with higher risk + I realize that it is calculated daily and tends to go down a little more with minus movement than with plus).


25€ additional p.m. on : (so pi times thumb 300€ p.a. times ~15 years= 4.500€)


$CL2 (+1,06%) Amumbi 2X MSCI USA Daily (0.5% TER)

$LQQ (+2,22%) Amumbi 2X Nasdaq Daily (0.6% TER)

$DBPG (+1,1%) Xtracker S&P 500 2x Daily (0.6% TER)


or rather boring momentum

$XDEM (+0,68%) MSCI World Momentum (0.25% TER)


SOS incoming

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20 Commenti
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Epi@Epi
4Mes
Perhaps you should take a closer look at this before deciding on a savings plan for leveraged ETFs rather than watching a Thomas video?
Example: 1. when investing in the 2xQQQ in 2000, it only caught up with the 1xQQQ in 2020. Before that it underperformed. 2. the psychological pressure of a 90% drawdown should not be underestimated! If there is only 1k left of 10k savings for the children, even mom gets nervous. Not selling then puts a strain on you and your relationship.

That's why leveraged ETFs should normally be flanked by a volume-reducing strategy. Otherwise it will backfire. The best way to do this is to read research.
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Uwe@SchlaubiSchlumpf
4Mes
@Epi Possible would be e.g. the leveraged S&P 50:50 to bonds or gold with monthly rebalancing or? It's not really my topic, I just thought about what I would do without further reading.
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Epi@Epi
4Mes
@SchlaubiSchlumpf Well, I've been working on such an idea for a few weeks now. There's not much on the net about "asset optimization with leveraged ETFs". I have to keep testing it myself. Savings plan returns and taxes are also a topic that I don't have a 100% overview of yet. Let's see, maybe I'll write a post about it. Then we can discuss it. 🤷👍
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Uwe@SchlaubiSchlumpf
4Mes
@Epi sounds exciting. I'll wait and see.

I probably won't change my core strategy. But you can think outside the box or do something like this on the side for a while as a gimmick. The problem with something like this is that it always has to work over a longer period of time, at best 30 years in retrospect, for which you usually don't get any backtests without major effort.
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Enrique@Dividenden_Monteur
4Mes
@SchlaubiSchlumpf @Epi I did some banal backtesting with getquin today and I came across the problem with the lev. etf that the splits and closings are not really specified here.
For example, if I enter $QQQ3 in 2018, I am almost a millionaire.
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Epi@Epi
4Mes
@Der_Dividenden_Monteur Yes, the backtests are difficult with these special ETFs. Try Portfoliovisualizer and 200% leverage with 3% interest rate. That's about right with 3xQQQ.
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Tino@parlania
4Mes
Still thinking about it, but prefer the nasdaq x2 or x3 - no risk no fun 😂
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Alfred E.@Papiertiger
4Mes
@parlania the 3x is quite expensive at 0.75, isn't it?
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Tino@parlania
4Mes
@Papiertiger yes, unfortunately, but make a benchmark over a few years
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Enrique@Dividenden_Monteur
4Mes
@parlania
Benchmark does not work with leveraged etfs, or the results are wrong.
They do not run for years like an etf but are regularly split and/or closed and reissued.
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Tino@parlania
4Mes
@Der_Dividenden_Monteur $QQQ3 and $LQQ can be benchmarked here in the app over several years?
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Kevin E.@KevinE
4Mes
Definitely not suitable as a buy and hold. 1.5 leverage perhaps, but no more.
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Epi@Epi
4Mes
@KevinE Why not under any circumstances? In combination with uncorrelated ETFs it might work...
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Enrique@Dividenden_Monteur
4Mes
A leveraged ETF brings you less return in the long term.
These are active products.
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Epi@Epi
4Mes
@Der_Dividenden_Monteur Where did you get the information?
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Nostradonkey💩@DonkeyInvestor
4Mes
Is it even allowed to leverage in the children's portfolio? I would be fine with momentum
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Alfred E.@Papiertiger
4Mes
@DonkeyInvestor You can also buy normal shares and penny stocks.
Every company on the market has a level of debt and is always indirectly leveraged,
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Nostradonkey💩@DonkeyInvestor
4Mes
@Papiertiger For children, you can only buy investments that are not too speculative. That's why I'm a little surprised
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Alfred E.@Papiertiger
4Mes
@DonkeyInvestor 3x is not possible as far as I can see, as it is no longer considered a special asset but a derivative. 2x is permitted if you actively reconfirm your knowledge with Comdirect/Ing.
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Tim@Stratege_Tim
4Mes
The question is also what you see this new ETf as: as the only product or as a supplement to an MSCI World? If as a stand-alone product, then rather the leveraged MSCI USA, if as a supplement, then sometimes also in combination with the leveraged NASDAQ.
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