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TCS
@TCS
11Mes·

Hello everyone,


I always enjoy reading about the "dividend strategy" here.


Mostly the ETFs $ISPA (-0,61%)
$ZPRG (-1,58%)
$VHYL (-0,63%) are mentioned. The advantage here is that dividends are paid every month.


So far so good. But that's where all the information ends.


Has anyone taken the trouble to present this strategy in figures over the last ten years, for example? I would be interested to see how the capital has developed. Also via a savings plan and with reinvestment of the distributions, for example.


I think there are many newcomers here - like me - who would be interested in this. Perhaps this could also convince some pessimists.


Thank you very much!




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26 Commenti
T-Mac@Compoundwithme
11Mes
Id be glad to do your home work for some Bitcoin?
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Epi@Epi
11Mes
In principle, I would also be interested in this. The only problem with such back tests is that they are often only accepted if the results fit. In other cases, general statements are made about the sense and nonsense of backtests. For example, backtests are useless because they only look into the past (is that what their backtests say?), or: nobody can look into the future (nevertheless they buy shares).

Dividend investors in particular don't have the reputation of being the most rational co-investors here on GQ. Quite emotional about dividends.

In short: a backtest on the div strategy is almost certainly a waste of time.
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ToDaMoon@randomdude
11Mes
@Epi To your knowledge, has there ever been a longer period of time in which a dividend strategy (I'll define it here as distributions of >3%) outperformed the market? I can hardly imagine.
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TCS@TCS
11Mes
@randomdude I'm not interested in beating the market. I would like to see how the capital develops overall.
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Aktienmasseur@Aktienmasseur
11Mes
@randomdude You are already aware that dividend yields are part of the total return. Dividends are not on top
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ToDaMoon@randomdude
11Mes
@TCS Well, how should it develop? While an MSCI World makes the famous 8% per annum, dividend ETFs - depending on the concept - are at the same level or a few percentage points lower. Part of this is the payout. If you invest in absolute figures, you would have to convert it.
Or did we not understand the question?
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Epi@Epi
11Mes
@randomdude This article tests the strategy and comes up with an outperformance 2002-12. https://seekingalpha.com/article/1031581-backtesting-dividend-growth-vs-dividend-yield It probably boils down to the fact that High Yield performs better than other strategies in difficult markets.
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TCS@TCS
11Mes
@randomdude I'm talking more about the "snowball principle" in real numbers...
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ToDaMoon@randomdude
11Mes
@TCS You see the snowball principle in therausierende ETFs.
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Maximilian@Maximilian01
8Mes
@randomdude SPDR US Dividend Aristocrats has outperformed the MSCI World. 10Y dividend increase of 10%pa. After some time you can even achieve double-digit distributions
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ToDaMoon@randomdude
8Mes
Well, the two have run at different speeds in different phases and are currently on a par:
https://extraetf.com/de/etf-comparison?products=IE00B6YX5D40-etf,IE00B4L5Y983-etf
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ToDaMoon@randomdude
8Mes
@Maximilian01 Double-digit distributions? Maybe, you can do a lot of math. In the end, it's the total return that counts, not the dividends. The right benchmark for the US Dividend Aristocrats would be the S&P 500, which was far more successful:
https://extraetf.com/de/etf-comparison?products=IE00B6YX5D40-etf,IE00B5BMR087-etf
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Visualizza tutti 3 ulteriori risposte
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ToDaMoon@randomdude
11Mes
The results will be significantly worse than those of broad market ETFs. Just compare the performance of the relevant ETFs on ExtraETF or something like that.
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TCS@TCS
11Mes
@randomdude I am interested in absolute figures, not just the performance comparison.
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DerMartin@DerMartin
11Mes
@TCS The absolute figures are derived from the performance.
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Aktienmasseur@Aktienmasseur
11Mes
@TCS Build up a portfolio with dividend payers and create sample purchases with a term of 10 years in the past
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Sina@lawinvest
11Mes
There was once an article here that compared the FTSE all World (distributing) exactly with it. But unfortunately I've lost it. Maybe someone will find it 👀
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Sina@lawinvest
11Mes
@lawinvest Addendum: the reinvestment of distributions makes it a bit complicated
Assuming: MsCi World makes 8.95% (source black Rock 20-year average) and I take one with a 1.5-2% payout (to achieve dividend-like returns later)
Or
The highyield dividend
It makes about 3%
But pays out 5.5.
If I don't reinvest, it shows at first glance and very quickly that the MSCI World completely outperforms it.
However, if I reinvest, I have an accumulating effect, which means that the dividend ETF also has a de facto annual WE of 8.5% and therefore a competitive return. But: in the long term, there is of course a shift, because the msci World works with the money from the outset and the longer the money sits, the less effect the dividend reinvestment has at the end of the investment period.

Incidentally, I have combined both. Strong core of s&P and MSCI World (approx. 50% of the ETF portion of my portfolio) and approx. 12% of the $TDIV
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Sparfuchs@Reinecke
11Mes
Search for the corresponding ETF on extra ETF - fire up Exel and rubber. The result is too frustrating for someone to do the hard work for you.
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Dividenden G.@Dividenden_Guru
11Mes
ETFs that pay out dividends are (unfortunately) lagging behind. Even with immediate reinvestment of dividends. If you are about to retire - go for it.

If you want to build up with a higher risk than if you were simply saving an ETF without distributions - then concentrate on BDCs (which have a good history and good management) or possibly even $O

- Save more risk than the "boring" ETF. More return? - No. But still cooler :)
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Aktienmasseur@Aktienmasseur
11Mes
Such dividend strategy ETFs are rarely a performance rocket. Then you don't need complex calculations and backtesting. I can also realize dividends through partial sales without being at a tax disadvantage.
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Bullnbear@Bullnbear
11Mes
Hmm I mostly read the combination $VWRL $FGEQ $GGRP & there is absolutely nothing wrong with the combination, as you always perform at world ETF level in the long term.

By the way, you can also do backtests here with a manual portfolio. I was very surprised that $VUSA has fantastic dividend increases in the long term.

All other high dividend stocks only make sense in old age & not in the savings phase.
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TCS@TCS
11Mes
I may have expressed myself incorrectly in my explanation. I was referring to the "dividend snowball principle" in order to see the development of dividend yields over the years.
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𝒻𝓇𝓊𝑔𝒶𝓁 𝒻𝓇𝑒𝒾 𝓈𝑒𝒾𝓃 🗽@frugalfreisein
10Mes
Your request is really good. I also save at $VHYL, $ISPA and $ZPRG, among others

Of course, it shows me key figures, but these are not meaningful. I have always only saved from my net salary and usually put the distributions into individual shares. Sometimes I also bought additional shares. In other words: YOU are unlikely to find anyone who always puts the dividends of an ETF into exactly the same ETF at exactly the same payout amount. You're more likely to find models where you put the dividends in title 1 one month, title 2 the next month and so on. Only the savings plans from the net salary are probably left constant, at least I hardly ever change them.
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manye@manye
5Mes
hello. if you compare the vanguard all world ACC (IE00BK5BQT80) with the vanguard all world high dividend ACC (IE00BK5BR626) (both are available ACCUMULATING), you can see:
at 1Y the all world outperformed the hi div by 4%, but at 3Y it was the other way around. i like that.
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