@Epi thank you, of course you're right, but then it will be the same for everyone or the majority of investors. However, I don't think it will be as bad as it was in the past, as the money printing press will be fired up again immediately and reactions will be faster today than in the past. I rather expect flash crashes and faster recoveries due to unexpected events. But yes, I'm not a bubble predictor and believe that we have entered a more technological age where companies are not just producing hot air with their business models, at least not the big companies in the world. That's why I'm not investing in a 10-man quantum computer company with a 10 billion valuation and no revenue. 😂But of course I don't have any 🔮
I will probably also take 1/3 of the highly weighted positions off the table, or 1/2 if prices continue to rise sharply. Then I'll have the initial capital out and also more psychological relaxation if prices fall sharply 😊
I'm not someone who stubbornly holds on when the situation changes, but one thing is certain: the future is more technological than today and technological progress accelerates technology, which is why I see prices and developments continuing to rise in the long term.
But of course we will see what really happens 🔮🤣
I will probably also take 1/3 of the highly weighted positions off the table, or 1/2 if prices continue to rise sharply. Then I'll have the initial capital out and also more psychological relaxation if prices fall sharply 😊
I'm not someone who stubbornly holds on when the situation changes, but one thing is certain: the future is more technological than today and technological progress accelerates technology, which is why I see prices and developments continuing to rise in the long term.
But of course we will see what really happens 🔮🤣
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•1G
@BamBamInvest Obviously your optimism has taken you a long way! 👍
Not that I don't share your technological confidence, but your sentences sound like déjà vu from 1999 to me. Oh, what deposits I saw in my early days! Several 100%pa were not uncommon. I myself made around 350% in my first year in 1999. Especially Neuer Markt and biotech - always solid figures and good growth, of course. The technological optimism was boundless: Internet, biotech, nanotech will change the world!
Well, they did. But the market still lost 80% in 2001-03, individual stocks well over 90%: Intershop, EM TV, Doubleclick, CMGI, Millenium Pharmaceuticals - you name it! Most of the "investment geniuses" of 1999 didn't want to hear anything more about shares in 2003. My portfolio survived just long enough (i.e. there was a decent amount left over) for me to carry on until 2008.
Long story short: enjoy the current euphoria and prepare for the end! Many things are reminiscent of 1999, after which times got tougher and many people's boom strategy will end up destroying their portfolio (buy the dip, etc.). Be smarter! 👍
Not that I don't share your technological confidence, but your sentences sound like déjà vu from 1999 to me. Oh, what deposits I saw in my early days! Several 100%pa were not uncommon. I myself made around 350% in my first year in 1999. Especially Neuer Markt and biotech - always solid figures and good growth, of course. The technological optimism was boundless: Internet, biotech, nanotech will change the world!
Well, they did. But the market still lost 80% in 2001-03, individual stocks well over 90%: Intershop, EM TV, Doubleclick, CMGI, Millenium Pharmaceuticals - you name it! Most of the "investment geniuses" of 1999 didn't want to hear anything more about shares in 2003. My portfolio survived just long enough (i.e. there was a decent amount left over) for me to carry on until 2008.
Long story short: enjoy the current euphoria and prepare for the end! Many things are reminiscent of 1999, after which times got tougher and many people's boom strategy will end up destroying their portfolio (buy the dip, etc.). Be smarter! 👍
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•@Epi it's all good, Trump is just tearing everything down again anyway ✌️das I'm aware that things will come crashing down again at some point, we'll see when that happens. It's difficult to describe his views and thoughts in just a few words, the events of that time must have shaped you, but maybe that's what it takes to become a better investor 🫡
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I agree with Epi... there will also be significant setbacks, especially Irish is definitely a flagpole that will be sold off to a large extent...
But everyone has to go their own way, good luck with that 😉👍
But everyone has to go their own way, good luck with that 😉👍
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•@d4Y I don't think so, there will be setbacks, but we are nowhere near a situation like 1999, which is spreading across the entire market and every technology company. I'm not saying we can't correct more strongly, but unlike back then, many companies have functioning business models and are not just surviving on air and love. As you say, everyone has to go their own way ✌️
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1G
@BamBamInvest Take a look at the large caps from 1999: Cash machines. And then take a look at the high performers of the last few months: Cashburner.
There are more parallels than you might think: sentiment, market breadth, earnings distribution, retail investment, valuations etc...
There are more parallels than you might think: sentiment, market breadth, earnings distribution, retail investment, valuations etc...
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•@Epi and take a look at the large caps from 1999, what kind of companies they were and what their valuations were. Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, General Electric, Pfizer, Economy Mobil and co. The bubble back then was much broader and even the large companies had valuations beyond good and evil. Today's technology companies are much more broadly based. I'm not saying that we don't have a lot of companies now that eat up a lot of capital and companies such as the quantum computing sector with 10 employees and valuations in the billions that earn nothing. But the big companies that carry the market earn a lot and that wasn't the case back then ... However, we'll see and I maintain that there will be corrections and slumps, but not 70-90% at index level. Individual stocks of course ✌️
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•22H
@BamBamInvest Nobody knows the future. But you should be prepared for anything. 👍
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•@Epi yes you're right, you should definitely have a strategy, days like today are relatively easy to forget when things are only going upwards 👍
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