Adobe – The Old King at Risk
“Adobe is still the undisputed heavyweight of creative software.” Valid statement? For now. Adobe controls a massive slice of the design market: Photoshop around 42% share, InDesign 26%, Illustrator 12%. Together, that’s dominance built over decades, embedded deep into companies and workflows.
But that doesn’t mean invincibility. Growth is slowing, subscription prices look absurd, and the product experience feels increasingly outdated compared to new players. Meanwhile, AI is shaking the entire industry — and Adobe risks falling behind if it doesn’t integrate fast.
Yes, the stock looks cheap (Forward P/E ~20, near historic lows) and the business model is sticky. But moats don’t last forever if customers start fleeing to sharper, cheaper, or more collaborative competitors. Adobe is still a force — but it looks like an aging one.
Figma – The Challenger Eating Market Share
Figma isn’t just another tool, it’s a different way of working: browser-native, collaborative, and viral. Teams adopt it before management even notices. The clearest proof of its threat? Adobe’s failed $20B acquisition attempt. If the king wants to buy you, it’s because he knows you’re dangerous.
And Figma didn’t just IPO — it exploded. The stock started trading more than 4x its $33 IPO price, before cooling back to a ~$32B market cap. That’s still a hell of a lot higher than what Adobe would’ve paid. The risk? Valuation. Forward EV/Sales around 32 is nosebleed territory. Not quite Palantir-insanity, but definitely in that neighborhood.
Still, Figma is where the next generation of designers are building muscle memory. Once you’ve won mindshare, revenue follows. And Adobe knows this — which is why they tried (and failed) to buy the problem away. Unfortunately, thanks to European bureaucrats, the deal died. I mean who doesn’t appreciate the work of these geniuses? How could we ever have two companies perfectly complementing each other merge? No, no, no. That would clearly harm competition.
My Take
Both companies are impressive in their own ways, but I own neither. Adobe feels safe but slow. Figma feels disruptive but extremely expensive. If I had to bet, I’d lean Adobe — because Figma has a long way to fall, while Adobe’s downside is partly priced in. But either way, I’m watching from the sidelines.
