1Settimana·

👀 On my watchlist since September 2025 – up 50% so far

I've had a stock on my watchlist for months. At the time, I thought it was interesting, but I didn't buy it.

Now it's up about 50%.

And right now, the thought crosses my mind:

“Darn, I wish I’d bought it back then… should I still jump in now?” 😅

I think this is exactly where FOMO kicks in.

So here’s my question for you:

🟢 Buy now, while the valuation is still attractive?

🟡 Wait for a pullback?

🔴 Stay completely away after a +50% gain?

How do you handle stocks you’ve been watching for a long time that suddenly take off?

This isn’t investment advice—I’m just curious about your personal strategy. 👇

$TPEIR (-0,79%)
$992 (+1,31%)

2 Commenti

H.S.@financial_ninja

1Settimana

Piraeus Bank S.A. — €9.90

Piraeus Bank, incorporating the latest H1 2026 results.

The conclusion is straightforward: the business has improved materially, but at €9.90 the margin of safety is still too thin for an BUY.

1. Starting point

Piraeus enters this reassessment with:

* Tangible Book Value/share: ~€6.30
* H1 2026 EPS: ~€0.47
* 2026 EPS target: ~€0.90
* H1 ROTE: 16%
* CET1: 12.8%
* NPE ratio: 2.2%
* Cost of risk: ~45 bps
* Cost/income: ~34%
* Loans: €39.0bn
* Deposits: €68.4bn
* AUM: €16.3bn, +24% YoY

Management has also raised its 2026 net interest income guidance to approximately €2.0bn.

⸻

2. Business Quality — IPIS

Business Quality Score: 74/100

Piraeus is a fundamentally different bank from the one investors were looking at several years ago.

Strengths

* Strong position in the Greek banking market
* Healthy loan growth
* NPE ratio reduced to just 2.2%
* Excellent operating efficiency
* 16% ROTE
* Strong growth in fees and wealth management
* Increasing diversification through insurance
* Much stronger capital position
* Growing capacity to return capital to shareholders

Weaknesses

* It remains a bank, with structurally higher cyclicality than our preferred compounders
* Profitability remains sensitive to the interest-rate and credit cycle
* CET1 at 12.8% is solid, but not exceptionally high
* Greek macroeconomic exposure remains relevant
* Execution around the insurance business remains important

Bottom line: Piraeus has undergone an impressive transformation, but I would not classify it as an exceptional long-duration compounder.

⸻

3. What does €9.90 imply?

At €9.90, the stock trades at approximately:

1.57× Tangible Book Value

For a bank generating a 16% ROTE, this is not excessive.

But it is no longer cheap either.

Assuming:

* Normalised ROTE: ~15%
* Long-term TBV growth: ~5–7%
* Cost of equity: ~11–12%

a reasonable valuation range is approximately:

1.4–1.7× TBV

This implies a fair value range of roughly:

€8.80–€10.70

⸻

4. Earnings valuation

Management is targeting approximately €0.90 EPS for 2026.

At €9.90:

Forward P/E ≈ 11×

For a bank with:

* 16% ROTE
* improving asset quality
* strong efficiency
* growing fee income
* increasing capital returns

11× earnings is reasonable.

However, it does not provide a large margin of safety.

⸻

5. IPIS Valuation

I use a combination of:

* Tangible Book Value / P-TBV
* Normalised earnings
* Residual income
* Tangible book growth
* Sustainable capital returns

Central Fair Value: €10.60

Scenario Fair Value
Bear €7.60
Conservative €9.20
Base Case €10.60
Bull €12.30
Exceptional €14.00

At €9.90:

Margin of Safety ≈ 6.6%

That is the key issue.

⸻

6. Investment Score

Factor Score
Business Quality 74
Financial Strength 76
Growth 78
Capital Allocation 82
Valuation 61
Margin of Safety 57
Risk/Reward 64
Investment Score 68/100

🟡 WATCH / HOLD

I would not classify Piraeus as a BUY at €9.90 under the my discipline.

⸻

7. Where would I buy?

This is where valuation becomes much more interesting.

€9.00

🟢 BUY

The margin of safety would become more meaningful.

€8.20–€8.50

🟢 STRONG BUY

At these levels:

* P/TBV would fall toward ~1.3–1.35×
* P/E would be around 9–9.5×
* ROTE would remain around 15–16%
* TBV growth would support intrinsic value
* Capital returns could provide additional upside
* Multiple expansion would become plausible

€7.50–€8.00

🟢🟢 HIGH-CONVICTION BUY

This would create a much more attractive risk/reward profile.

⸻

8. The most interesting part of the story

The structural transformation is what makes Piraeus interesting.

This is no longer simply a “Greek bank recovery” story.

The business is increasingly evolving toward a broader financial-services platform:

Banking → Wealth Management → Bancassurance → Insurance → Digital Financial Services

AUM of €16.3bn, up 24% YoY, together with strong net inflows, is particularly encouraging.

The insurance business could also provide a more diversified earnings stream, reducing the group’s dependence on traditional banking spreads.

Management’s strategic ambition of reaching approximately 18% ROTE would make today’s valuation considerably more attractive if achieved sustainably.

⸻

9. Verdict

Piraeus Bank @ €9.90

Business Quality: 74/100
Investment Score: 68/100
Central Fair Value: €10.60
Fair Value Range: €7.60–€14.00
Margin of Safety: ~6.6%
IPIS Rating: 🟡 WATCH

Key price levels

≤ €9.00 → BUY
≤ €8.50 → STRONG BUY
≤ €8.00 → HIGH-CONVICTION BUY

At €9.90, I would wait.

The business is clearly better than it was several years ago, but the market has already recognised a substantial part of that improvement.

This is precisely the type of situation where the discipline matters:

It is better to miss an upside opportunity than to compromise on valuation and margin of safety.

Final view

Piraeus is becoming a high-quality banking franchise, but at €9.90 it is fairly valued rather than deeply undervalued.

WATCH — wait for a better entry point.

Preferred accumulation zone: €8.20–€8.50.

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Mike U.@MikeUpegui

1Settimana

Wenn ein Asset meine Auswahlkriterien erfüllt, ist mir relativ egal, ob der Kurs gerade am Allzeithoch oder deutlich tiefer steht. Entscheidend ist für mich die Positionsgröße und das Risikomanagement. Position size is the key, wenn du verstehst, was ich meine. 😉

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