While scrolling, my Instagram feed showed me another interesting post. The story of Bob, the worst market timer of all time, from the book *A Wealth of Common Sense* by Ben Carlson.
Bob (a fictional character) starts working in 1970 at the age of 22 and is a diligent saver. His bad luck: He invests exclusively in an S&P 500 index fund—and always right before a major crash.
📍 Late 1972: $6,000 invested. The market then falls by nearly 50% in 1973–74.
📍 1987: $46,000 invested. Afterward, the market drops by over 30%.
📍 Late 1999: $68,000 invested, shortly before the dot-com bubble burst.
📍 October 2007: $64,000 invested. The next crash, of about 50%, follows in 2008.
Each time, Bob is frustrated, and each time, he keeps going anyway. He keeps saving, he keeps buying, and most importantly: he never sells.
In total, he has contributed $184,000. By 2013, his portfolio was worth worth about $1.1 million . 🤯
And today? If Bob had simply kept investing, extrapolating based on S&P 500 returns through 2026, it would be about $5.5 to $6 million. From an initial investment of $184,000, just by buying right before crashes. 🚀
This insight isn’t exactly new. Time in the market beats timing the market. But after the AI crash of the past few days and the resurgent fear of a bubble, it might be a good idea to remind ourselves of that again! 👍🏼
So if you’re thinking about whether to jump in or not… maybe you just have to take the plunge. If in doubt, spread your investments out over a few months, especially if it’s a larger sum. As long as you don’t bet on individual stocks that go bankrupt, you can’t do any worse than Bob… and in the end, everything turned out fine for him! 😅
