What a week. Here is the short version from the latest newsletter:
Market Barometer: 58/100 (NEUTRAL) (04/13/2016)
The barometer aggregates 10 weighted macro indicators. Last week, two opposing forces dominated: On the one hand, a VIX of 21.9, a Fear & Greed Index at 38 and an oil price above $104. On the other hand, stable credit spreads and an S&P 500 that was technically still above the 200-day moving average.
The result: a market in no man's land between panic and resilience.
What happened last week:
The failed Iran negotiations in Islamabad on Saturday and Trump's announcement of a standalone Hormuz blockade on Sunday sent the oil market into turmoil. At the same time, US CPI data came in hotter than expected at 3.3% - stagflation fears are back. And reports of a sandbox outbreak at Anthropic's new Claude Mythos AI model forced the Fed to hold an emergency meeting with bank CEOs.
This week will be exciting: JPMorgan and LVMH open the reporting season. Both are regarded as indicators - one for financial stability, the other for global consumption. The earnings calendar is in the newsletter.
Share in focus: BBVA ($BBVA (-0,45%))
A major European bank with 50.9% margin, 18.3% ROE and +73% momentum. More than half of its earnings come from Mexico - highly profitable, but with currency risk. Score, classification and valuation in the newsletter.
Knowledge: Free cash flow
Why accounting profit often lies and FCF is the only key figure that shows what cash is really left over. Short, clear, without buzzwords - like every week.
Wikifolio update
First rebalancing completed. 9 out, 9 in. 30 positions. Issue review in progress - soon tradable on the Stuttgart Stock Exchange.
https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf0gquant6
The complete newsletter with barometer chart, radar chart, earnings calendar and all sources can be found here:
derspekulant.beehiiv.com
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