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Why I am still cautious about buying more despite the panic in the market and the extremely low Fear Index 🥶🤷‍♂️

$AMZN (-3,47%) The example of Amazon shows how extremely the market has reacted to the activities of Mr. Trump and friends within a very short space of time.

To Corona there was a setback of approx. -26%.

The current setback is already around -30%.

What still worries me, however, and why I see further downside potential, are the large volumes, which are still a few percent below the current prices.

Yesterday, the price already bounced off the small volume peak around 166$ (yellow arrow). A further test in the next few days looks quite likely. If this mark does not hold, the larger liquidity area will be somewhat lower at around 160$.

If you look at other large companies such as $GOOG (-2,49%) you see a similar picture - the large volumes are all somewhat lower.

Unfortunately, this is hardly predictable due to Trump, a deal at the weekend with one or two large countries can lead to a bounce right away, or further counter-tariffs can lead to a further tightening into even lower ranges 🥶🤷‍♂️

Stay vigilant and handle your cash carefully - that's all you can do at the moment anyway.

@TradingMelone What do you say as a volume expert?

6 Commenti

LoneMelone@TradingMelone

The higher VIX, which will certainly reverse in the near future, would also speak in favor of a reversal.

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Pawfolio@Pawfolio

Fundamentally, it is 30% cheaper than a month ago. At least if the profit and sales expectations remain unchanged.
I don't think the tariffs will have such a big impact here. Amazon will simply give preference to other retailers. Prices will also be passed on 1:1.
Cloud growth will not turn around completely within a few weeks.
This volume range was already a few years ago. Do you think it can still be used as a basis?

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

@Pawfolio From a historical perspective, these volumes can be used; the decisive factor here is the Y-axis, i.e. the price and not the X-axis of time. And when values return to these price ranges, these volumes are relevant again.
Volume does not forget, as they always say. 95% of the volume comes from institutional investors, and they defend their trades. Or go short in the worst case...
Depending on where they see the greater profit.
But, of course, it's already cheaper now than it was a month ago, and in the long term it's probably already a good entry point. If you look at the charts, it's difficult to get in when you see the current picture

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bls@market_mastermind_25

16H

@Pawfolio recessions make people feel poorer and inflation in other sectors both limit the number of Amazon boxes the average consumer will receive.

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LoneMelone@TradingMelone

In my opinion, the Fixed/Anchored Volume Profile / Vwap provides much better information. Because you can use it to look at clear market phases. Ultimately, the market always runs through accumulation expansion distribution expansion and accumulation again. With the fixed/anchored you can see exactly the current HTF market phase.

Using Google as an example, I would put this at around 30.08. This was the start of the distibution that our swing low made, after which the market accumulated at the swing low and the expansion for the HH took place. Now we are back in the expansion of the distribution that we are testing important levels of accumulation or the last market phase is logical for me.

Whether you look at the swing low or the distribution, we have just broken both the VWAP deviation and the VAH and the POC is at 138-132 with the Vwap. the Fib has not even reached a 50% correction. And it looks the same for almost all stocks. We have not dumped into any levels but have either broken levels or are still ahead of potential reversal levels.

Of course the market can act irrationally, but I don't want to hide that. Although I actually expect interest rate cuts and a reversal in the short term. I think we will see rate cuts and a rally with the M2 money supply. However, at some point rates will be seen within inflation and at the same time mortgage default rates will rise even higher. Apart from the recession risk. Of course we have the possibility that Trump is just trying to make it easier to refinance the country, but he is doing this with an enormous willingness to take risks and depending on how hard other countries react, he may not be able to build up the supply chains in his own country so quickly.

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

@TradingMelone I usually analyze with 2 layouts, one as in the picture above with SMA200, SMA50 and Volume.
The second layout is with SMA50, SMA5 and anchored VWAP, where you can always see very clearly what happens within the standard deviations, or the outliers that break out above the deviations😅

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