1Settimana·

Just a small bump in the road or are we going downhill? That's why you shouldn't miss the best market days.

Especially if you hold Bitcoin (or even S**tcoins), your portfolio may look like mine in the last week. 📉

Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Price fluctuations, crashes and panic phases accompany investors time and again.

Nevertheless, historical data shows:

Those who remain invested for the long term and do not try to time the market benefit from its recovery phases - and avoid the fatal mistake of missing out on the best stock market days.

Why is staying invested for the long term so crucial?

One of the main reasons are the best days on the stock market, which often occur in the midst of crises.

If you sell during downturns, you can easily miss out on these short-term price spikes, which account for a large proportion of long-term returns.

Studies show drastic effects:

S&P 500 (2003-2022):

If $10,000 had been left fully invested over 20 years, the portfolio would have grown to around $64,844 (+9.8% p.a.).

But if you only missed the 10 best days, you would have ended up with $29,708 (+5.6 % p.a.) - less than half the final value!

With 20 missed top days, $17,826 (only +2.9 % p.a.) would remain.

Missing 60 top days would have caused the assets to shrink to $4,205 - 93% less than with buy-and-hold.

The return would then even be negative (-4.2% p.a.).

Why are the top days so critical?

Because they usually occur in phases of great uncertainty.

According to analyses, 7 of the 10 best days of the last 20 years have occurred during bear markets.

They often directly follow the worst days (example: March 13, 2020 second-worst day, March 24 second-best day).

Those who got out after a crash were on the sidelines when the market jumped.

Conclusion: stay invested and buy more!

$BTC (-5,05%)
$SPY (+0,11%)
$CSPX (-0,31%)
$VUAG (-0,29%)
$VUSA (-0,3%)

22 Commenti

Thomas@DonkeyKongx

1Settimana

I first think -5199€, click on it & get hiccups right away. Good nerves my best 😄🚀

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Manny@Superrichy

1Settimana

Thank you very much for your post, I'm panicking, my annual bonus is completely used up. So close your eyes and crawl through the sh.... crawl! Maybe I invested too much in cryptos after all and took too much risk. But the stock market experts are always talking about the coming bull market in April. Let's hope so .....!

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Mo@BigMo

1Settimana

@Superrichy With pleasure!
As someone who is already living through the third Bitcoin market phase, I have now completely given up altcoins (except for a small Ethereum position).
Memecoins in particular are usually not for buy & hold over several years and I have already hodled high book profits to 0 out of greed.
Everyone would like to know whether the current Bitcoin dip is the start of a new bear market.
If I can give you just one tip:
If you have cash available, I would advise you to further expand your position in $VWCE rather than adding to altcoins.

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Oleg@ScorpionfromBW

1Settimana

@Superrichy well, I mainly have ETFs and my YTD is also in the red. Moderate compared to cryptos, of course, but still

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Mathias R.@Mathias_Rr

1Settimana

@bigmo thanks for this cool post. Logos should always rule in these times.

I would still be interested to know when you start to get a little nervous when you go into the red with an investment. Is that -30% or sometimes -70%?

I've been in it for 6 years now and one position was down -32% over the entire period.

Of course it is held, but I still find it interesting, especially in view of the fact that 50% loss means 100% increase to get back to green.

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Mo@BigMo

1Settimana

@Mathias_Rr I don't get really "nervous" about high losses in individual positions, as I generally only allocate a maximum of a few percent of my overall portfolio there.

The exception is Bitcoin, which I have held since 2017 and have therefore become accustomed to the volatility.

I recently reduced around 15 individual equity positions myself (many at a loss) in order to build up more cash for additional purchases of ETFs.

In general, my tip and that of many other investors here is:
As few individual positions as possible and more broadly diversified ETFs.

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Mathias R.@Mathias_Rr

1Settimana

Okay top, thanks for the explanation.

Does this also mean that psychologically you are saying to yourself, I have made good profits on various positions, so I can liquidate others at a loss?

The aim is not to hit every investment and sit out a miss?

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Mo@BigMo

1Settimana

@Mathias_Rr
The risk of every individual investment is that you sometimes miss the mark.
In general, I have built up too many small individual positions too carelessly in the past.
Some of these have turned out to be total failures (Walgreens, smaller biotech companies, etc.).

A few weeks ago I took a lot of profit on Palantir and by selling losing positions in the same portfolio, I at least didn't have to pay tax on the profit.

If you only have small individual positions with losses, you can of course hold them in the hope of a long-term turnaround.
In the longer term, however, I want to move away from more individual positions and build up a stronger ETF core in my portfolio.

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Mathias R.@Mathias_Rr

1Settimana

@BigMo I see, thank you for the detailed explanation. It's always cool when people with large depots report here.

I've often thought about the tax issue too, especially as it's "legal" in Germany to sell a share at a loss and then buy it again straight away.

Of course, you can create short-term tax advantages this way.

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sharktien@sharktien

1Settimana

Buy more! My new total buyin is now slightly higher than before at 28K but long term! My goal is 300,000. and yes that can take years but I have time 😃

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Mo@BigMo

1Settimana

@sharktien Top! With Bitcoin, you have to have a thick skin and will be rewarded for it after a few years.
As my Bitcoin position is already large enough as a proportion of my portfolio, I am currently diversifying with new cash in the $VWRL

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Harald@Madhatter5566

1Settimana

There is no historical data on Shitcoins and Bitcoins. Experience tends to show all towards zero at 99.999%. Bitcoin and a few individuals are holding up bravely, but historically there is no real data or reason to believe that anything will repeat itself. There is nothing that really nails down the value of the coin.

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Mo@BigMo

1Settimana

@Madhatter5566 That's right. I wouldn't advise anyone to hodl Shitcoins either. At most, they are suitable for a small, short-term trading position.

Opinions will forever differ on Bitcoin... I've been holding since 2017 and I'm still convinced.

The core investment of a portfolio should still be a solid ETF base. I'm working on that right now 🙂

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Patrick@Pazi3

1Settimana

@Madhatter5566 why do you post under every BTC post if you demonize the stuff so much?
To each his own, but why do you bother?

You're not going to change anyone's mind, just like no one can change yours.
Live & let live😉

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Harald@Madhatter5566

1Settimana

@Pazi3 Exchange. Interest. Maybe someone could explain at some point where he gets his coffee rate reading from. If it was well explained why bc will go up and down you could take returns with you.

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Wiktor_06@Wiktor_06

1Settimana

"Good" that others feel the same way. Of course I don't begrudge it to anyone, but I was afraid that only I was that low...

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Mo@BigMo

1Settimana

@Wiktor_06 Anyone who has been in Bitcoin for a long time will eventually get used to these "mood swings" on the market 😜

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Floriano@FlorianoPerlini

1Settimana

in one week, wow. I thought that was your total.

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Mo@BigMo

1Settimana

@FlorianoPerlini
For a long time, I had hoped that the market as a whole would experience a major setback and built up a lot of cash (approx. 20%).

Now I hope that Bitcoin will lead the way down.

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Sparfuchs@Reinecke

My German portfolio is long - I'm not really worried about that. Perhaps we should have sold $VWRL and $VUAG when everyone was still wallowing in euphoria, paid our taxes on the profits and then waited for better times. After all, this development was a foregone conclusion. I had another long discussion with my wife today - she manages my 2 US portfolios and not even the defense stocks are still in there. $BTC she has already sold 🥺... but wants to buy them again as soon as Trump's plan with the strategic reserves works out 😄

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Mo@BigMo

@Reinecke The poor sentiment on the US market is partly justified, but certainly not a reason for me to get out in the long term. Finding the right way back in is unlikely.

Even before the announcement of the high level of special assets, the DAX was only going up, although the fundamental data had been looking bad for some time.
If the US really crashes, Europe will not be spared either.

For me, however, all opportunities to buy in the long term 😄

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Sparfuchs@Reinecke

@BigMo My wife invested everything from the BTC in armaments and realized when the big shock came. But she is also sitting at the source, so to speak. We had a long discussion here because what she has already moved in my portfolios this year doesn't correspond to my risk behavior. Especially since I now know what's in it. Now I have to start thinking about limiting myself to consultancy work from the age of 50 so that I can keep my German health insurance. Here in the USA everything is very relaxed, we both work in the defense industry. She sells the weapons systems and I will use them a few more times before I can switch to the company. The next proxy war is already on the horizon... soon the Asia-Pacific region will generate a lot of sales.

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