4G·

New purchase: Novo Nordisk

Last week I built up my first position in $NOVO B (+0,21%) built up.

I am well aware that the euphoria surrounding the share has waned considerably in recent months. Competition in the market for obesity and diabetes drugs has increased and market shares have shifted accordingly. This is probably one of the main reasons for the weaker share price performance in recent months.

Nevertheless, I still consider the market to be extremely attractive. Even if $NOVO B (+0,21%) no longer occupy the dominant position of recent years, I believe that the overall market is growing so strongly that even a smaller market share than today can still represent a very interesting business.

In addition, the company has a strong balance sheet, high margins, impressive profitability and a long history of increasing dividends. As a dividend investor in particular, I really like the combination of operational growth and continuously rising dividends.

For me, the current entry is therefore not a bet that $NOVO B (+0,21%) that the company will regain market share, but rather that it will remain a significant winner in the long term, even in a much larger market.

~ No investment advice ~

02.06

Novo Nordisk

Acquistato a 37,90 €

8 Commenti

𓆙@MedusaFi

Duopoly. There's nothing more to say. The share is a top pick for me in the long term. I'm also constantly trying to add to it at the moment. I don't care whether it's hype or not, I'm convinced of it. 🐍

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DividendenPapa@DividendenPapa

@MedusaFi I can only agree with that. I am also planning further purchases, which I would like to make soon. As soon as the position has reached a certain initial target size, a savings plan will be set up which should then further expand the position in the medium term.

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

I basically agree with your reasoning, but would like to point out one thing: the headwinds are not decreasing (see $PFE GLP-1 studies) and in the short to medium term it looks more like an operational setback than growth.

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Ruben Schoff@Sand

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin that may be, everything is already more than just priced in at this level a nice value stock to balance out tech in the portfolio

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

@Sand I think it is difficult to make more than just a priced-in assessment. Novo and the market are expecting considerable headwinds this year, but are expecting a gradual recovery next year. Is this certain to happen? If not, I would not make the blanket assumption that everything is already "more than priced in". I have them in my portfolio myself, but will be selling my position soon.🤷🏼‍♂️

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DividendenPapa@DividendenPapa

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin I'm basically with you on that. In the short to medium term, competitive pressure could well increase further, especially if other providers such as $PFE follow suit with convincing study data.

This is precisely why I do not expect $NOVO B to return to the extreme growth rates of recent years. My investment thesis is based more on the fact that the overall market for obesity and diabetes treatments is likely to grow massively in the coming years. Even with declining market shares, $NOVO B could therefore continue to be a very attractive business.

However, the next few quarters will definitely show how much the competition is actually squeezing margins and market shares.

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

@DividendenPapa would be exactly my assessment. The opportunity costs here are simply too high for me.🤷🏼‍♂️

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DividendenPapa@DividendenPapa

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin I can absolutely understand that. The opportunity costs are probably even the strongest argument against investing in $NOVO B at the moment.

If one assumes that the next few quarters will be rather difficult due to competitive pressure, there are certainly other companies with more momentum in the short term. For me, $NOVO B is therefore not a position where I expect the best performance in the next 12 months. Rather, I see a long-term opportunity here over several years if the market is currently too pessimistic about future earnings power.

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