Non trovato

3Mes·

I played around a bit in finchat today. It has a very good screening function where you can filter by several parameters. Among other things, I noticed the share from DE $DE000RENK730 (+1,31%) caught my eye. The chart after the IPO actually looks completely like many other shares after the IPO. Either shares are sold off immediately after the IPO or you first see a parabolic rise followed by a sell-off. At some point, -30% to sometimes -70% below the listing price, they then usually form a bottom, similar to $PLTR (+2,61%)
$SOFI (-3,44%)
$NU (-1,31%)
$ENR (+0,81%)
$COIN (-2,4%)
$HIMS (+10,05%) . With the given growth prospects, the share could become quite interesting after another halving of the price. Does anyone here have them on their radar?

8 Commenti

ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

3Mes

The first three months after the IPO are very important, after that it's the year. Finchat is mega good, simply innovative and if you write to the developer or founder, they usually respond with the new function on the same day.

•

ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

3Mes

@topicswithhead Statistics on IPO Declines
Broken IPOs: The percentage of "broken" IPOs—those that close below their offering price on the first trading day—rose significantly. In 2023, 50% of IPOs were classified as broken, an increase from 37% in 2022 and 24% over the preceding five years (2017-2021). This is the highest level since 2008, when nearly two-thirds of IPOs were broken4.
Median Year-End Performance: Companies that went public in 2023 ended the year trading a median of 56% below their offering price. This figure is only slightly better than the 55% decline seen in 2022. In contrast, 80% of companies from the 2022 cohort were trading below their offering price at year-end, marking one of the worst performances in recent history14.
Duration of Declines: While specific statistics on the duration until peak declines are less frequently reported, historical trends suggest that significant drops often occur within the first three months following an IPO. Many companies experience their most substantial losses shortly after their market debut, typically within this timeframe.
**** Market Trends and Implications
Overall Performance: The average share price return for IPOs since their debut has been negative, with a median decline of approximately -7.7%. This indicates that while some companies perform well, a substantial number do not sustain their initial valuations3.
Market Capitalization Impact: Smaller companies tend to experience higher rates of broken IPOs. Among companies with market capitalizations under $150 million, about 67% were classified as broken. In contrast, larger companies (over $3 billion) had more unbroken than broken IPOs3.
Investor Sentiment: The decline in IPO performance can be attributed to various factors including market conditions, investor sentiment, and regulatory challenges. The fear of red tape and associated costs has led many potential public companies to reconsider going public altogether2.

•

Dirty30@Dirty30

3Mes

@topicswithhead very interesting. I noticed that with the IPOs right from the start. If Renk behaves like everyone else, then the share should easily come down to the €10 level. I'll definitely keep an eye on it, including the RSI. You can usually recognize the trend reversal by bullish divergences.

••

ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

3Mes

@Dirty30 well, they still have a trend behind them, they are German and small cap, so they are bound to be very volatile. But especially in Germany it's worth waiting for IPOs, I don't have any statistics but the last successful IPO was certainly a long time ago

•

ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

3Mes

@topicswithhead I don't know what Porsche looked like a year ago, but at least now it must have been an eternity ago

••

Dirty30@Dirty30

3Mes

@topicswithhead Yes, we'll have to wait and see. I can't imagine that it will start an upward trend again from now on, especially as the German indices are ripe for a major correction anyway and Renk will not act against the trend.

••

Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

3Mes

Renk would not be my top investment in the Aerospace and Defense
would not be my top investment.

•

Wojtek@Wojtek

3Mes

These are the typical reactions to IPOs. After the IPO, the share price rises by around 20%, followed by a really big correction of 50%.

•