2Settimana·

Presentation and considerations for 2025

Dear community,

I have been a member of getquin for almost 2 months now and I am thrilled with how lively the discussions and contributions are. Thanks to everyone who takes the time to research certain topics and share their knowledge.

I would like to take the opportunity to briefly introduce my portfolio and share my thoughts for 2025.

I have been managing my own investments for 10 years now. I started with ETFs and got into cryptos in 2017 (and got out again after the FTX bankruptcy and the Terra Luna crash). And for a few years now I've also been trading shares and now also real assets (I'm currently testing Timeless). Over the years, I have been able to expand my portfolio.

Due to my family responsibilities, my monthly fixed savings rate is currently €500. I also park monthly surpluses in my call money account and invest them when I see an opportunity. I need a certain amount of cash as we are still renovating and therefore simply need some cash...

My goal is to have at least €500,000 in 10 years so that I can pay off the existing loans on our house. So I would need to generate an annual return of 15%...

Over time, I've built up quite a mix of shares. My credo so far has been not to invest more than €1000 per share (although there have been exceptions) and a stop-loss at 20% below the purchase price. I haven't decided when the best time to sell is and I still don't know which strategy is best for me. I would therefore describe myself more as a hodler...

Now to my plans for 2025.

- I will change the fixed value per share of €1000 and increase it to €5000.

- The stop loss remains in place.

- Keep savings rates at €500 for the time being.

- Reduce the number of shares

- Focus on growth

What could a savings plan look like that I would continue for the next few years?

One point that bothers me is the high proportion of US equities in the global ETFs (cluster risk) - even though this is where most returns have been made historically...

Hence my consideration:

- Save in an ETF with a lower or no USA share (I currently have the following in my portfolio $GERD (-1,1%) where the USA share is only 50% - unfortunately quite expensive with TER 0.5%; or a new start with a $EXUS (-0,61%) ) (share: 40%)

- Saving $MEUD (+0,15%) (20 %), $FLXI (-0,55%) (20%), $WSML (-1,32%) (20%)

- S&P500 or MSCI USA via the 2xSPYTIPS of @Epi (via single payments)

- In addition $BTC (+0,82%) Savings plan of 40€ / week from existing USDC holdings (LTC sales from December) Note: Crypto portfolio cannot be fully mapped in Getquin as the EARN Binance Wallet is not displayed.

What do you think? Does that make sense?

As a next step, am I considering divesting from stocks?

From $OBDC (+0%) I would probably divest myself, possibly also $CSCO (-0,55%) . Can you think of any other shares or ETFs that would make sense to sell due to low growth prospects? I would then invest the free money in 3xGtaaa and shares like $ASML (-0,72%) , $NVDA (-3,63%) ...

Overall, I'm still not sure whether my strategy is quite right. Do you have any ideas, suggestions or comments? I would be grateful for any advice.

Thank you and best regards

14 Commenti

2Settimana

Before I think about the number of shares and ETFs, I would first think about how much of the overall portfolio the individual strategies you have mentioned here should make up. Or rather, it is not clear to me which strategies you would like to pursue. SPY/TIPS, 3xGTAA, crypto b&h, ETFs b&h, individual stocks b&h ??????

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Paul@paul_finesse_

2Settimana

@Krush82, once everything to go

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RandomDude@randomdude

2Settimana

@paul_finesse_ With spicy and garlic?

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financer_85@financer_85

2Settimana

Thank you @Krush82. I think you hit the nail on the head. I don't quite agree on that. I'm trying a diversified approach with the different strategies. A possible allocation for me would be - 50% ETF as core (including SPY/Tips), 10% Gtaa, 5% Crypto, 35% Equities

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Paul@paul_finesse_

2Settimana

@randomdudeI like herbs better 👀

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RandomDude@randomdude

2Settimana

@paul_finesse_ Okay, that always works.

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Epi@Epi

2Settimana

You have clearly defined your goals (500k,15%pa) and your selection universe (asset classes, strategies). Very good! But that's only the first step.

The next step is to put together a sensible strategy portfolio based on this.

In addition: GERD will not be part of this, as it only yields around 7%pa. The same applies to all other strategies in this area. You need backtests to determine the expected return, correlation and vola of the strategies. Basically, you can only use strategies that are expected to deliver 20%pa or more and have a manageable risk (your stocks won't offer that) - then you have a good chance of 15%pa. These strategies should be uncorrelated so that you are more likely to reach your target in 10 years.

You can save yourself the work. But then you won't reach your goal, or only with a lot of luck.

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financer_85@financer_85

2Settimana

@Epi By writing down my thoughts, I realized that I still have some deficits when it comes to long-term planning. Maybe the 15%pa are also a bit high... but I want to stick with it for now.
In the ETF area I can imagine getting a good basis with the World Ex USA + SPYTIPPs + Gtaaa. I still have to learn how to backtest...

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Harald@Madhatter5566

2Settimana

Yes, no, your declared goal is to beat the market by twice as much every year. Sure. Don't you want to start in a casino?

Stay realistic for once. High returns mean high risk, which is definitely not a good thing in the long term.

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Dividenden-Penner@Dividenden-Penner

2Settimana

You have a plan for 2025 with sensible changes. That's right and important - above all: stick to it. In the past, you seem to have been somewhat erratic in your investments and strategies, if there was one. The long list of your sales seems to confirm this. The stock market is a marathon, not a sprint. So good luck and always have cash ready for a good dip. 😉

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Pezi@Pezi

2Settimana

You want to take little risk and quintuple your portfolio in 10 years? Good luck with that...

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RandomDude@randomdude

2Settimana

I'm like @Krush82 - I can't see a coherent strategy yet either. It's best to sort through your ideas again, clarify your return targets and risk appetite and then determine the investment concepts and their proportions.
Another thing I've noticed is that a paid-off property is great. But a portfolio starting at 500K really starts to take off. The return will certainly be significantly higher than that of real estate. So I would think again about the repayment.

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financer_85@financer_85

2Settimana

@randomdude. First I have to reach my goal... whether I redeem or not also depends on the market situation.
I'll take your comment to heart and work on a strategy... Thank you

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Market M.@Market_Master

2Settimana

put some crypto

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