Non trovato

Hannes · 2023-06-20T15:27:44.352752Z

Weltweiter Chemie-Ausverkauf? Es war im Grunde abzusehen, dass die westlichen Chemie-Produzenten im Zuge sinkender Aktienmärkte nun attraktiv für schwere "Cashholder" sind. Insider gehen von einer Übernahme von $1COV durch $ADNOCDIST aus. Der Ölkonzern des Emirats Abu Dhabi querte erst vor geraumer Zeit bereits meinen Weg an der Börse. Meine Spekulation damals: Die Übernahme von $BRKM5 . Später bewahrheitete sich das Interesse an Braskem ebenfalls durch ADNOC. Eine Übernahme mit einem Angebot an Covestro würde reelle Chancen ab ca. 60€/Aktie haben. Daher viel Spaß an die Zocker. 👍 Es bleibt aber abzuwarten, wie sich die Politik verhalten wird. Hier hat man sich eindeutig eine Sackgasse manövriert. Was würde das aber für wirtschaftliche Folgen in Deutschland haben? Persönlich denke ich tatsächlich, dass eine gewisse Taktik dahinter steckt, weswegen man gerade Kunststoffproduzenten zum Kauf auserkoren hat. Man hätte mit den Übernahmen der beiden Konzerne einen sehr großen Teil der deutschen Kunststoffproduktion unter Kontrolle und könnte durch verbilligte Öl- und Gasverträge des heimischen Konzerns eine gewisse Preissetzungsmacht ausüben, die den Konkurrenten durchaus gefährlich werden könnte. Zusätzlich würden weitere Kapitalabflüsse in das Ausland verlagert werden. Für den Standort Leverkusen also der nächste potenzielle Sargnagel. Eine Tarifbindung für derzeitige Mitarbeiter würde wohl ähnlich entfallen. Das kann man aber erst beurteilen, sobald eine Übernahme überhaupt verhandelt wird und kommt selbstverständlich auf die Eingliederung Covestros in den ADNOC-Konzern an. Wie realistisch seht ihr eine Übernahme des deutschen Chemie-Giganten? Werden weitere Angebote an deutsche energieintensive Unternehmen folgen?

Hannes

@Hannes_SK

1Anno·

Global chemical sell-off?

It was basically predictable that Western chemical producers would now be attractive to heavy "cash holders" in the wake of falling stock markets.

Insiders are predicting a takeover of $1COV (+0,21%) by $ADNOCDIST assume.

The oil company of the emirate Abu Dhabi already crossed my way on the stock exchange only some time ago.

My speculation at the time was that the takeover of $BRKM5 (-1,3%) . Later, the interest in Braskem was also proven by ADNOC.

A takeover with an offer to Covestro would have real chances from about 60€/share. Therefore, have fun to the gamblers. 👍

However, it remains to be seen how politics will behave. Here, one has clearly maneuvered oneself into a dead end.

But what would the economic consequences be in Germany?

Personally, I actually think that there is a certain tactic behind the decision to buy plastics producers.

With the takeovers of the two groups, a very large part of German plastics production would be under control and, thanks to the domestic group's cheaper oil and gas contracts, it would be able to exert a certain pricing power, which could certainly pose a threat to its competitors. In addition, further capital outflows would be shifted abroad. This is the next potential nail in the coffin for the Leverkusen site. A collective bargaining agreement for current employees would probably cease to apply in a similar way. However, this can only be assessed once a takeover has been negotiated at all, and of course depends on Covestro's integration into the ADNOC Group.

How realistic do you think a takeover of the German chemical giant is? Will further offers to German energy-intensive companies follow?

12 Commenti

Epi@Epi

1Anno

Selling off key industries to quasi-state companies owned by autocratic enemies of our liberal democracies - that fits in perfectly with Germany's economic policy of recent years. Our children will then have to pay for the mess. That's what makes politics fun! 🙄

•

Mostra la risposta

Stefania Kröger@Stefania

1Anno

I went in at €31.58, so I might be able to get a quick 100%🤑 but I actually wanted to hold it as a dividend-paying stock for the long term 🙈

•

Hannes@Hannes_SK

1Anno

@Stefania Sometimes you also need a good portion of luck. Congratulations on the return! 🚀 Now you'll have to pick a new dividend stock and analyze it. 😅

•

Dennis@Chou

1Anno

For me, just another confirmation not to invest in German companies.

••

Hannes@Hannes_SK

1Anno

@Chou But why not, for example? The real capital of most German industrialists is heavily undervalued on the stock market. Assuming further sales, a good return can be achieved in the foreseeable future at the expense of the national economy. In the meantime, of course, this is also associated with corresponding political risks.

••

JUNl@JUNl

1Anno

Yes, I think there will be offers to energy-intensive companies, some of which are already underway or expected in the near future. After the chemical industry, the metals sector is also in focus (for example, Emirates Steel would like to have Thyssen's steel division, an offer is currently being prepared). But also petroleum processing (and plastics industry) as well as the production of glass, ceramics, paper, etc. will be increasingly affected, in my opinion.

••

Hannes@Hannes_SK

1Anno

@JUNl The question behind this, however, is what oriental companies hope to achieve on the European continent. This is unlikely to be due to a political realignment. But obviously, German production sites still have very high margins. However, investments of the domestic economy are mainly inhibited by EU regulations. The articles by Brudermüller at $BAS are highly recommended. Furthermore, on the subject of paper, it is almost absurd. Almost all paper mills in Germany operate at the lowest production levels. At the same time, $MERC is legally incorporating the Arneburg (Stendal) and Rosenthal am Rennsteig sites in their entirety. From the company's point of view, mineral oil processing in Germany has been running at a loss for years. The production facilities are operated on a cost-neutral basis. The focus is on energy diversification through chemicals, such as methanol or ammonia, as well as self-supply of electricity for the electrolysers.

•

JUNl@JUNl

1Anno

@Hannes_SK My answer to your question, what oriental companies hope for: for example, global influence, creation of alliances/dependencies and ultimately also simply know-how. Because actually they have only one thing, supposedly infinite raw material deposits and thus really incredible, almost endless money (from what wants to be made).

•

Gerit@Gerit

1Anno

It is of course not the worst value and also offers opportunities without a takeover. Who was planning to enter here, now even has the chance to make quick profits. Was last year believe a good analysis in the German space to. Unfortunately outside my competence 🥶

••

Hannes@Hannes_SK

1Anno

@Gerit Outside your competence? You will have bought building foam before. Then you had something tangible from Covestro.😅 I've also been expecting this for a while and am now very curious about the reaction of politicians. For me personally, it would be a declaration of bankruptcy if they want to smile this away just like the sale of Viessmann's heat pump division.

••

Utente eliminato

1Anno

Il commento è stato cancellato

Hannes@Hannes_SK

1Anno

@ausgeklammert The course is set anyway for China and the USA to form a bipolar world for industrialists. But German chemical companies have unbeatable patents and very good engineers, which should achieve a transformation on the European continent, at least fleetingly. The question behind this, however, is how society is likely to change in terms of acceptance of industry.

••